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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Feels like we've gone back in time a year with the repeated conversations.
Of course. Even if we sign the Withdrawal Agreement, these conversations will continue through the transition period as the parties search for a permanent future relationship. It will drag on and on indefinitely.
 
Thanks for this. My point though is that the recent HoC vote which actioned Mrs May to go back to the EU to try to reopen the Backstop issue talked about 'using alternative technology' or wording to that effect. Rather than reinvent the wheel, I was just wondering why this existing practice has not been identified or followed. The EU already knows that it operates effectively and assuming the UK doesn't remain in THE CU border control in Ireland will be necessary won't it.

Even without going into the technology aspect, firstly it's still a visible physical border, Norway and Sweden are also both in the European Economic Area . The UK not only wants to leave the Customs Union but the EEA as well. It wants to have the status of a third country.
 
Also that people believe that all the possibilities have not been discussed, rediscussed and rediscussed again between the EU and the UK.

I will gladly accept that I know less about this subject than you or some other people....

However, I don't consider myself stupid and I have tried to follow as much of the Brexit debates and discussions.

I followed the most recent HoC votes and I don't recall any reference made to the Norway Sweden border.

There was lots of nebulous discussion about new technologies for the Irish border but nothing about current solutions.
That was my point.
 
Thanks for this. My point though is that the recent HoC vote which actioned Mrs May to go back to the EU to try to reopen the Backstop issue talked about 'using alternative technology' or wording to that effect. Rather than reinvent the wheel, I was just wondering why this existing practice has not been identified or followed. The EU already knows that it operates effectively and assuming the UK doesn't remain in THE CU border control in Ireland will be necessary won't it.

Look for Svinesund custom office in google map, you should see why it's not an alternative technology. And that's only one crossing point.
 
Look for Svinesund custom office in google map, you should see why it's not an alternative technology. And that's only one crossing point.

No point me looking if it is not suitable.

Just to reiterate. All I was doing was pointing to the BBC report.
 
My mrs is dutch, we are not married. The original comment from some bloke said people perhaps could not move to mainland europe cos of family or career commitments, what career? If you guys are to be believed there will be no jobs in april. So which is it?

Is irrelevant be married or not in willing to stay for someone you love, what you can do because you can stay in a foreign country for whichever reasons. Others will not be as lucky with Brexit and they are even married and you made that poor comment "Any remainers moved to europe since 2016?" (and please, don't claim that it was an innocent comment)

And yes, will be jobs on April. But what has to do with people than stays in UK because of Brexit? Brexit is a hardship but still home and not everybody has the choice. And being and immigrant in a better country it doesn't mean that you will be better than home with all your network (family, friends, job opportunities, culture, language, etc...)

But you know that pretty well. That is why your snarky comment (because it is, don't play dumb) is hypocritical and disgusting
 
No point me looking if it is not suitable.

Just to reiterate. All I was doing was pointing to the BBC report.

No problem. It has been mentioned more than a year ago, like Switzerland, but neither have actual frictionless borders.
 
Is someone really thinking that UK can get away without paying his dues (being 39 Billions with the WA or 24 Billions without the WA) without consequences? amazing!
 
I will gladly accept that I know less about this subject than you or some other people....

However, I don't consider myself stupid and I have tried to follow as much of the Brexit debates and discussions.

I followed the most recent HoC votes and I don't recall any reference made to the Norway Sweden border.

There was lots of nebulous discussion about new technologies for the Irish border but nothing about current solutions.
That was my point.

Didn't mean to sound a bit off .
No there was some reference some time ago but it was ruled out as unsuitable.
In all honesty I don't see any solution with or without technology .

The UK want a totally separated relationship with the EU.
A farmer wants to move his cow from one field in NI to another field on the other side of the border, or sell some food produce acroos the border, no electronic technology is going to solve that.
Any sign of a physical border is a problem in Ireland

I've been shipping goods all over the world for donkeys years and although a few things are now done on line and electronically, at the end of the day it's loads of paperwork and checks and administration.

If I'm shipping something from Africa to the EU for example I've got several weeks to get everything prepared, all the documentation etc so when it arrives it can leave the port and customs relatively smoothly.
With the volume of traffic over the Irish border and no time at all to prepare you can imagine the problems this would cause.

Then of course there's Dover/Calais which doesn't bear thinking about .. which is another story not involving the backstop but which will be an even bigger problem.
 
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No point me looking if it is not suitable.

Just to reiterate. All I was doing was pointing to the BBC report.

Its fair enough, its a 1000 page thread so you cant be expected to go back and find the previous twenty times its come up. Most of these reports that have come up are ... dishonest? Theres another one showing no border control at the top of a cul de sac, think it was on the swiss border? And the irish border has a lot of its own challenges by virtue of what and where it passes through.
 
Didn't mean to sound a bit off .
No there was some reference some time ago but it was ruled out as unsuitable.
In all honesty I don't see any solution with or without technology .

The UK want a totally separated relationship with the EU.
A farmer wants to move his cow from one field in NI to another field on the other side of the border, or sell some food produce acroos the border, no electronic technology is going to solve that.
Any sign of a physical border is a problem in Ireland

I've been shipping goods all over the world for donkeys years and although a few things are now done on line and electronically, at the end of the day it's loads of paperwork and checks and administation.

If I'm shipping something from Africa to the EU for example I've got several weeks to get everything prepared, all the documentation etc so when it arrives it can leave the port and customs relatively smoothly.
With the volume of traffic over the Irish border and no time at all to prepare you can imagine the problems this would cause.

Then of course there's Dover/Calais which doesn't bear thinking about .. which is another story not involving the backstop but which will be an even bigger problem.

You really do know what you are talking about given your experience.

You say that you don't see any solution with or without technology.
So what is the way forward then given where the UK currently is.
There has to be some form of solution, apart from remaining in the EU.
 
You really do know what you are talking about given your experience.

You say that you don't see any solution with or without technology.
So what is the way forward then given where the UK currently is.
There has to be some form of solution, apart from remaining in the EU.

It means we're back to Brexit in Name Only ie the UK leaves the EU but stays in the Customs Union and Single Market (assuming they can become an EFTA member) but there seems little point.

Even if there were other possible solutions, as you can see in parliament, there are so many different factions, there will never be a majority for one solution.

Brexit as in a real Brexit has always been an impossibility for me in this day and age( without being a catastrophic disaster).
 
You really do know what you are talking about given your experience.

You say that you don't see any solution with or without technology.
So what is the way forward then given where the UK currently is.
There has to be some form of solution, apart from remaining in the EU.
This is a great summary of the problem, given the red lines that have been set out:

Trying to boil the issue down to its most basic terms, is this a fair summary?

Here are three statements from the British wish list:
a) no hard border in Northern Ireland
b) no border in the Irish Sea
c) an independent British trade policy

You can have any two of these, but not all three.

a+b = UK-wide Customs Union (basically the backstop)

a+c = NI remains in EU customs union. The rest of the UK is free to strike trade deals.

b+c = Hard Brexit (leave with no deal)

a+b+c = IMPOSSIBLE
Some problems are intractable, this one particularly so because the Commons as currently elected can't agree on which two are most important.
 
This is a great summary of the problem, given the red lines that have been set out:


Some problems are intractable, this one particularly so because the Commons as currently elected can't agree on which two are most important.

Thank you. I did read this earlier but, taking account of the latest posts, this is now much clearer.
Moreover, it illustrates the almost insurmountable difficulties.

I have to say that the information posted here is far more relevant and informative than anything I have followed during the Brexit TV coverage.
 
Is irrelevant be married or not in willing to stay for someone you love, what you can do because you can stay in a foreign country for whichever reasons. Others will not be as lucky with Brexit and they are even married and you made that poor comment "Any remainers moved to europe since 2016?" (and please, don't claim that it was an innocent comment)

And yes, will be jobs on April. But what has to do with people than stays in UK because of Brexit? Brexit is a hardship but still home and not everybody has the choice. And being and immigrant in a better country it doesn't mean that you will be better than home with all your network (family, friends, job opportunities, culture, language, etc...)

But you know that pretty well. That is why your snarky comment (because it is, don't play dumb) is hypocritical and disgusting
Its hardly a poor comment when it seems staying in an eu country is the holy grail. Moving is a choice, deciding to stay in the uk is a choice, staying and moaning is also a choice. If you see a better life for you and your family abroad, your choice to stay is bewildering. I left behind family and as my parents got sick and eventually died, I went home every week. Would it have been any better for them if I lived in the uk, no. So yeah, if you hate it so much, what is it in life you actually want? If it's to stay in the uk and be unhappy but close to friends and family then fair enough. If you think your family would be better off abroad then move.
 
Its fair enough, its a 1000 page thread so you cant be expected to go back and find the previous twenty times its come up. Most of these reports that have come up are ... dishonest? Theres another one showing no border control at the top of a cul de sac, think it was on the swiss border? And the irish border has a lot of its own challenges by virtue of what and where it passes through.

Funnily enough, the picture showed the border in the back.
 
Its hardly a poor comment when it seems staying in an eu country is the holy grail. Moving is a choice, deciding to stay in the uk is a choice, staying and moaning is also a choice. If you see a better life for you and your family abroad, your choice to stay is bewildering. I left behind family and as my parents got sick and eventually died, I went home every week. Would it have been any better for them if I lived in the uk, no. So yeah, if you hate it so much, what is it in life you actually want? If it's to stay in the uk and be unhappy but close to friends and family then fair enough. If you think your family would be better off abroad then move.

I will sintetize it because genuinely don't see the irony

you say: Remainers says that staying in a EU country is the holy grail. Staying and moaning is a choice

You do (As a leaver opinion): Brexit is the holy grail for UK. Staying and moaning un NL is your choice

Further instructions: yes, you did not say Brexit is the holy grey, it has its flaws but worth it. The same with remainers. EU has its flaws, but worth it

Conclusion: you criticize remainer's behavior (not that is criticizable, but is for you) for something that you do exactly the same. If you hate so much the EU to want Brexit, wtf are you doing in EU and not the UK the same way you tell remainers to leave UK after Brexit?

P.S.: If you don't get it, you are thick af. And I am done with it either way
 
I will sintetize it because genuinely don't see the irony

you say: Remainers says that staying in a EU country is the holy grail. Staying and moaning is a choice

You do (As a leaver opinion): Brexit is the holy grail for UK. Staying and moaning un NL is your choice

Further instructions: yes, you did not say Brexit is the holy grey, it has its flaws but worth it. The same with remainers. EU has its flaws, but worth it

Conclusion: you criticize remainer's behavior (not that is criticizable, but is for you) for something that you do exactly the same. If you hate so much the EU to want Brexit, wtf are you doing in EU and not the UK the same way you tell remainers to leave UK after Brexit?

P.S.: If you don't get it, you are thick af. And I am done with it either way

There you have it, standard remain insult. Was going to reply but I'll wait until you pass your 11+
 
There you have it, standard remain insult. Was going to reply but I'll wait until you pass your 11+

And again hypocritical when they warned you for insulting me (if what I said is an insult...) directly in your first quote not that many pages ago because I was just saying plainly my opinion

You must be remainer :lol:

PS: I can't be a remainer if I am not brittish. I just have common sense

You really don't see yourself ever to what you criticize, even when is in front of your nose.
 
Surely the point is that there are no real benefits to leaving and a huge number of hugely damaging things - none of which were considered or at least widely understood at the time of the referendum. A second referendum (not that they should ever be used for non-constitutional issues - but that horse has bolted) is the only even half sane or sensible option, yet almost nobody in power wants to suggest it. If there was just one senior politician with even an ounce of conviction, intelligence and morality they would be able to sell it easily. I hate them all.
 
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I'd like to think this would unite the country in to guy fawksing parliament and putting some heads on spikes but sadly all it will do is divide everyone further. They will get away with it like they always do.
 
Everyday that pass there is less and less chance of No deal. Whatever the politicians babbles, UK is not ready for a No Deal scenario and, if No Deal would be a disaster (at least short term, No Deal without contingencies would be a catastrophe IMO. May's deal will get more and more support the closer the date is and revoking A50 as well. It will be a matter of what they prefer, but No Deal is almost impossible currently
 
Everyday that pass there is less and less chance of No deal. Whatever the politicians babbles, UK is not ready for a No Deal scenario and, if No Deal would be a disaster (at least short term, No Deal without contingencies would be a catastrophe IMO. May's deal will get more and more support the closer the date is and revoking A50 as well. It will be a matter of what they prefer, but No Deal is almost impossible currently

It really isn't.
 
It really isn't.

No deal will be always a possibility, of course. But even if they don't go for May's deal, on the 28th even the politicians will say: "Shit is getting real" and they will pull out A50. if not would be insanity
 
Everyday that pass there is less and less chance of No deal. Whatever the politicians babbles, UK is not ready for a No Deal scenario and, if No Deal would be a disaster (at least short term, No Deal without contingencies would be a catastrophe IMO. May's deal will get more and more support the closer the date is and revoking A50 as well. It will be a matter of what they prefer, but No Deal is almost impossible currently

I'm not so sure, I think a no deal is much more likely at the moment than it has been.
 
No deal will be always a possibility, of course. But even if they don't go for May's deal, on the 28th even the politicians will say: "Shit is getting real" and they will pull out A50. if not would be insanity

I get the feeling that a lot of the Tories seem to think the EU will cave at the 11th hour, they may or they may not i have no idea.

But either way i think the Tories care more about their party and staying in power than they do the country and it's people. If May and the Tories withdrew article 50 there are 17m remainers who probably wouldn't vote for them again for a long time if ever.
 
I get the feeling that a lot of the Tories seem to think the EU will cave at the 11th hour, they may or they may not i have no idea.

But either way i think the Tories care more about their party and staying in power than they do the country and it's people. If May and the Tories withdrew article 50 there are 17m remainers who probably wouldn't vote for them again for a long time if ever.

You are right, Or they think that the EU will cave in or is what they want to sell. But they can pull it out at the last minute.

AAnd you are right again, they are only interested on staying power, but they even know that Staying or No deal is a lose-lose situation. if they will pull out, some they will not vote them relatively short-medium term. It they go for unprepared no deal, the short term catastrophe could wipe them out forever. That is why I think they will end going for May's Deal (maybe a little bit of make up). but even them between:

Lose their power: revoking A50

vs

Lose their power and feck up UK (at least short term) with serious and visible consequences: Unprepared No Deal

They will choose the former.

With unprepared No Deal, the initial chaos will be of a magnitude, that they would need to go to GE where they would be wiped out
 
No deal will be always a possibility, of course. But even if they don't go for May's deal, on the 28th even the politicians will say: "Shit is getting real" and they will pull out A50. if not would be insanity

I think you overestimate our politicians.
 
I think you overestimate our politicians.

They are corrupt (like everyone's politicians) and dumb (most of all as well) and powergrabbing cnuts (like all of them again). But 87.33% are sane
 
I get the feeling that a lot of the Tories seem to think the EU will cave at the 11th hour, they may or they may not i have no idea.

But either way i think the Tories care more about their party and staying in power than they do the country and it's people. If May and the Tories withdrew article 50 there are 17m remainers who probably wouldn't vote for them again for a long time if ever.

I might be wrong, but I think we only had the initial vote as Cameron had to keep the more extreme right of his party happy.

Since then, May's main priority has been coming up with a deal that stops the Tory party from tearing itself apart. A deal that is actually good - or less damaging - for the UK as a whole has always been secondary to this objective.
 
I might be wrong, but I think we only had the initial vote as Cameron had to keep the more extreme right of his party happy.

Since then, May's main priority has been coming up with a deal that stops the Tory party from tearing itself apart. A deal that is actually good - or less damaging - for the UK as a whole has always been secondary to this objective.

No you're correct mate, old pig fecker Cameron tried to solve some internal Tory party squabbling with a national referendum on EU membership. He fecked it all up royally and then pissed off first chance he got and left others to clean up his mess. But May made a complete clusterfeck of it all, which is an achievement in itself really.

I also agree May has been trying to please everyone and keep the party together for the last 2 years which is why her deal was so overwhelmingly rejected. Virtually no one on the Brexit or remain side liked it.

I don't know whether the Tory party survives Brexit and a potential no deal. But i think the party might be done long term, they have the ERG which is a party within their party who obviously have their own agenda.
 
"I'm stockpiling putrefying piles of rubbish optimism":
Guardian said:
Officials warn of putrefying piles of rubbish after no-deal Brexit
 
Yet more Brexit cheer!:
Guardian said:
‘Dickensian diseases’: gout, whooping cough and scarlet fever on rise
Guardian said:
'Everything’s leaving': Sheffield's high streets gutted by vacancies
Gaurdian said:
Showers of red-hot dog shit heading your way
 
The below popped up on my twitter feed, regarding trade/trade deals if No Deal happened and how Article 24 that’s spouted by Rees Mog and his cronies is totally irrelevant in our situation. The guy also speaks in ways that anyone could understand. It’s 15mins long though. Hit the soundcloud link.