Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[sun_tzu]

This is the same guy who asked Poland to veto any attempt to get an extension

Is he trying too hard because of his surname? Presumably he’s off polish descent

Also I believe he’s up to his eyes in gold speculation, the price will spike in the event of a hard brexit

Born in poland... Moved here when he was 7 apparently

 

[golden_blunder]

Born in poland... Moved here when he was 7 apparently

Ironic, you think he’d want to defend his right to be there

All about the gold

 

[unchanged_lineup]

And the one in the middle that you didn't pick is interesting. Belarus is one of the worst example possible.

Sorry, quickly googling to back up my basic knowledge of the region.

Closer to home, we in Ireland had a civil war after we "left" our "long term political union" with Britain. Again, doesn't quite fit his narrative.

 

[africanspur]

Contingency plans and working towards avoiding a disaster is not the point at hand, the point at hand is people are saying disaster is inevitable regardless of what planning and work is done to mitigate it.

Do you see?

My examples were probably not the best, as none of those countries at the time were a G7 powerhouse from the civilised west, but if you have never heard of the Czech republic, Slovakia, Lativa, Montengro, Serbia, Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, Boznia and Hertzegovina etc etc etc all either gaining independence from a larger political union or from a former occupation then......

Yeah.

The situation in the UK is a lot, lot different, its not breaking from a overbearing ruling political system, its not part of an empire, its not occupied, its separating from a consensual economic and partial political partnership which is a lot less dramatic.

That isn't what you said though. You said you had 'survived around 8 (probably more) apocalypses predicted by various experts and governements, I am not attributing too much weight to this one.'.

So I asked what these apocalypses were exactly and do you not think that these 'apocalypses' may have been, to some extent, but the accurate recognition of those potential disasters and adequate planning is what helped prevent them? If one of my surgical colleagues was to operate on you and tell you there was a 10% chance of death and you came out ok, would you feel the surgeon was simply catastrophising? Or that perhaps the surgeon had foreseen the potential consequences and done all of the relevant things they needed to, such as keeping sterile, doing constant checks during the operation, having a competent partner and going to medical school for 6 years and then training for a further 10 years before becoming a fully fledged surgeon?

I mean, I don't get what you're doing here, especially with the patronising tone. You've listed multiple countries that literally had years of strife following an exit from a union and then come in, with the exact same tone.

Firstly, 'leaving' the Soviet Union as the entire union collapses is wholly different from leaving a fully functioning union that you are inextricably linked to.

Even some of those countries you have listed

Aremnia: War with Azerbeijan, blockade by Azerbeijan and Turkey, economic difficulty,
Latvia: Initially occupied by Soviet forces and didn't provide citizenship to many of its non Latvian citizens. Decided to join the EU and NATO.
Montenegro: Civil war
Serbia: Civil war
Georgia: Coups, separatism, wars, ethnic cleansing and still currently Russian occupation of certain territories
Moldova (I'll be honest, I know nothing about Moldova)
Belarus: See Moldova. Don't they have Europe's last dictator as their president?
Ukraine: Country lost over half of its GDP in the 90s, has had rigged elections, uprising/ protests, territory annexed and swathes of the country enveloped in war vs separatists/ Russian agents.
B&H: Civil war

Czech Republic and Slovakia certainly doing well, though both have entered the EU and I think NATO (ie deciding it is probably better to be part of a union...)

So I guess it depends on what you class as leaving a political/ economic union well. I actually think long term, it may well be ok for the UK. I don't think it will become some kind of mad max But short term, especially in the event of no deal, it would be a disaster. And the examples you've decided to provide as examples where countries have left without much trouble (and instead have listed a bunch of countries that have mostly undergone civil war, partition, economic strife, occupation, ethnic cleansing etc. You've listed perhaps 2 countries that have come out of a union without much immediate issue (there may well be some African examples, I can't pretend to be an expert on all of African post colonial history). Doesn't exactly fill me with much hope.

 

[Cloud7]

If Nissan is your only means of work, as was ship building, as was mining, then its not hard to see why the north eastern people are angry. Total neglect.

I don’t usually say anything in this thread, but I feel like this warrants a response. How on earth is that the fault of the EU? Is it not the British Government’s responsibility to try and generate jobs for these people and not make them face “total neglect”? What does that have to do with the EU?

 

[afrocentricity]

The worst thing about brexit is how we have accepted the complete disregard for the truth from our politicians.

I don't think that's on Brexit. It's just highlighted (with a massive flood light) what was there...

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Was having a chat with a couple of folks about no deal brexit... How prepared the business is etc...
Somebody pointed out about the blitz spirit and how we will be just fine whatever happened
Somebody else pointed out that the police had to go on the national news asking people not to dial 999 when KFC ran out of chicken for a few days.

If nandos or maccy-d's goes down I'm with the Kaiser chiefs... There's gonna be riots

The problem is that most of these people don't realise how things end up in the shops.

The other question is why would anyone vote to exist on a basic existence - moreover almost none of these people lived through the "blitz". Moronic.

 

[Adisa]

Nissan confirm the rumours.
Sky reporter saying people of Sunderland are defiant and think companies are using brexit as an excuse.
Nationalism is a cancer.
It further erodes the notion the UK can exist and its own separate customs entity. It's afacking fantasy.

 

[sun_tzu]

Pound already at it's lowest in 30 years, markets taking a thrashing, calls for independence referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Whispers that Brussels will look to make an example of us. Just how bad will the shit show get? Or is there light at the end of the tunnel?

So 1000 pages in and this was the first post in the thread
Pound is lower
Indyrefs still bubbling away in the background and I'd guess may get more momentum based on the end deal (or no deal)
Basically not much has changed other than there is now a lot less time to sort things out

 

[Aboutreika18]

Nissan confirm the rumours.
Sky reporter saying people of Sunderland are defiant and think companies are using brexit as an excuse.
Nationalism is a cancer.
It further erodes the notion the UK can exist and its own separate customs entity. It's afacking fantasy.

I'm just waiting for the penny to drop for people like this.

When the reality sinks in, how will these people respond?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The problem is most people (be they ignorant right wing mouth breather, or cowardly left wing snowflake) think the withdrawl agreement is the permanent agreement with the EU, and not the interim framework we will be dealing with the EU under while we negotiate or decide our long term relationship with them.

The biggest problem, is that both sides of the argument are just as ignorant and stupid as the other, as they deal in absolutes and fear, both sides think we will be severing all ties with the EU, with one side thinking we will stride mightly into the future with the Union Jack flying on every corner, bent bananas and no more eastern Europeans, the other side thinks we will collapse into a mad max style apocalypse were everyone who cant prove they were born within spitting distance of the bow bells back 6 generations will be lined up and shot, no food on the shelves and their children dying in their arms because there is no medicine.

Neither side seem to grasp that countries dont work like that, they ignore every other country that has left a long term political union (like most of Europe, India, parts of Africa, the United States) and instead think that the UK will be some special exception in what actually happens.

Obviously the withdrawal agreement is the first step to real negotiations on the future relationship as has been said countless times.

The problem is that if the withrawal agreement is rejected which so far it has overwhelmingly been, there is no stepping stone to the next stage.

Thus the mad max/ armageddon scenario only starts the day after the UK step off the cliff without a withdrawal agreement. How bad it will be no-one can say for sure but without question it will mean serious disruption at the very least.

 

[Adisa]

I'm just waiting for the penny to drop for people like this.

When the reality sinks in, how will these people respond?

I don't think the reality will ever sink in. These people will always find someone else to blame.
The people of Sunderland don't understand there is absolutely no advantage to Nissan manufacturing those cars inside the UK.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

I don't think the reality will ever sink in. These people will always find someone else to blame.
The people of Sunderland don't understand there is absolutely no advantage to Nissan manufacturing those cars inside the UK.

Pop over to the Newcastle Chronicle facebook page and you'll see them creating all manner of justifications to explain how this is not due to Brexit but part of "Project Fear".

I used to spend a lot of time in that area and passed the factory all the time. I feel sorry for the folks working there but not much sympathy for these folks who can't see that it's related to Brexit.

 

[Mogget]

I'm just waiting for the penny to drop for people like this.

When the reality sinks in, how will these people respond?

They'll blame the EU.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

On that Facebook page I mentioned someone posted this - I guess this could be an email sent to Nissan staff

Today the company is announcing that the next-generation X-Trail, planned for production in NMUK, will instead be made in Kyushu plant in Japan.
Our intention was to notify you in the coming week about this decision, but following leaks to the media this weekend we are issuing this information today.
I want everyone to understand the background to the decision. Much has changed since we announced Qashqai and X-Trail for NMUK in October 2016. At that time they were both planned as ‘traditional’ models, powered by internal combustion engines. X-Trail was already going to be made in Kyushu, but there was a good business case for bringing production to Europe as well.
Since that time, as you know, the environment for the car industry in Europe has changed dramatically. To meet the changing emissions regulations we’ve had to invest much more in new powertrains for our future models like X-Trail. At the same time, the volume forecasts for X-Trail in Europe have reduced.
For those reasons the company has decided to optimize our investments and concentrate production in Kyushu, instead of adding another production site. For the European business, this does not change the fact that X-Trail is - and will continue to be - a crucial model for us.
Today’s announcement will be interpreted by a lot of people as a decision related to Brexit. We have taken this decision for the business reasons I’ve explained, but clearly the uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future.
With the UK’s departure from the EU on March 29th getting closer every week, we have a taskforce in place, reporting to me, that is considering all of the possible scenarios and the potential impact on the business. As a responsible business with 16,000 employees in the region, I want you to know that we are preparing across all functions, and with our supply chain, for anything that might impact our current business model. When the time comes to initiate any of those plans, we will be ready, and we will communicate with full transparency to all of you.
In NMUK, we’re still investing heavily in the new Juke and the next-generation Qashqai. Since they were originally allocated, those two models have also needed a lot of additional investment to meet the new emissions regulations and to electrify their powertrains. The NMUK team has just opened a new Paint Shop, and will soon be installing the second new extra-large Press. The team in the plant still has the full confidence of the company.
Thanks for your continued support,
Gianluca de Ficchy
CHAIRMAN, NISSAN EUROPE

 

[Adisa]

Standard diplomatic statement. No business wants to look like they are trying to influence political decisions.

 

[The Firestarter]

The country is leaving the second largest market in the world and you wonder why companies are moving their manufacturing operations . "Just an excuse"....the mind boggles.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

I've seen people are replying with "Project Ostrich". Sounds about right to me.

 

[SteveJ]

Standard diplomatic statement. No business wants to look like they are trying to influence political decisions.

Plus, the government is *quite* keen on implimenting gagging orders; in this case, there may be an agreement with companies like Nissan not to 'cause panic' i.e. 'Don't criticise us & we won't criticise you'.

 

[JPRouve]

I've seen people are replying with "Project Ostrich". Sounds about right to me.

Bloody Ostrichians, we helped them during the war!

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Bloody Ostrichians, we helped them during the war!

#blitchspirit

 

[SteveJ]

The 'M' in 'EU' is silent! #conspiracy

 

[Buster15]

The flaw in your argument is that there is very little, if any, downside to staying in the EU whereas leaving will be an utter clusterfeck.

A lot of people who voted to leave the EU did it because they had been sold a dream; that being 'take back control'.

It was a very clever piece of advertising as are other election promises.

I have a number of friends who voted to leave. In fact I was very much in the minority.
Some of these are actually quite intelligent.

They see any downside of leaving as a short term pain which is worth it for the long-term gain and are positive that 'we can make it work'.

 

[Wumminator]

It’s absolutely mental that most rational intelligent people can see that this is a horrendous move and yet we still continue.

 

[Buster15]

I'm just waiting for the penny to drop for people like this.

When the reality sinks in, how will these people respond?

Bit late now though isn't it.
I doubt very much that anyone will actually acknowledge that they made a mistake (if indeed that turns out to be the case).
Still some twists and turns yet.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Bit late now though isn't it.
I doubt very much that anyone will actually acknowledge that they made a mistake (if indeed that turns out to be the case).
Still some twists and turns yet.

...on the downward spiral

 

[RedChip]

I'm just waiting for the penny to drop for people like this.

When the reality sinks in, how will these people respond?

It will be terrible. It is like when someone dies; it is easier at first to just deny it has happened. Then it sinks in and it hurts.

Imagine how this feels for remainer, Nissan workers? Your livelihood threatened. For what?

I have never understood why when companies warn about consequences such as this it is considered fear mongering, project fear. What would motivate companies to engage in fear mongering? Above all they are interested in the health of their businesses, not politics.

Also, isn't it ironic that Brexiteers, who don't want immigrants, moan about foreign firms choosing to leave because of Brexit?

 

[Sigma]

I can't remember my history well but weren't we the biggest recipients of the Marshall Plan?

 

[2cents]

This is the same genius who tweeted this last year (read the replies):

 

[stevoc]

The problem is most people (be they ignorant right wing mouth breather, or cowardly left wing snowflake) think the withdrawl agreement is the permanent agreement with the EU, and not the interim framework we will be dealing with the EU under while we negotiate or decide our long term relationship with them.

The biggest problem, is that both sides of the argument are just as ignorant and stupid as the other, as they deal in absolutes and fear, both sides think we will be severing all ties with the EU, with one side thinking we will stride mightly into the future with the Union Jack flying on every corner, bent bananas and no more eastern Europeans, the other side thinks we will collapse into a mad max style apocalypse were everyone who cant prove they were born within spitting distance of the bow bells back 6 generations will be lined up and shot, no food on the shelves and their children dying in their arms because there is no medicine.

Neither side seem to grasp that countries dont work like that, they ignore every other country that has left a long term political union (like most of Europe, India, parts of Africa, the United States) and instead think that the UK will be some special exception in what actually happens.

Did i give you the impression that i thought that the bolded is the case?

All i'm saying is after triggering Article 50 you have 2 years before leaving, might as well use that time to get an agreement in place to ensure we exit the EU as smoothly as possible. And then give yourself some breathing room to discuss what shape the future UK/EU relationship will be.

As someone from Northern Ireland i must say that as bumbling and incompetent as the whole process has been so far, and the situation in Ireland it might yet still all go tits up if it's no deal. I'm at least thankful that sort of effort was made by the British government to negotiate with Ireland and the EU and to get some border arrangements in place to try to preserve the Good Friday Agreement.

As opposed to the other train of thought some people have which seems to be that leaving with no deal is somehow a good thing.

 

[Ducklegs]

Did i give you the impression that i thought that the bolded is the case?

All i'm saying is after triggering Article 50 you have 2 years before leaving, might as well use that time to get an agreement in place to ensure we exit the EU as smoothly as possible. And then give yourself some breathing room to discuss what shape the future UK/EU relationship will be.

As someone from Northern Ireland i must say that as bumbling and incompetent as the whole process has been so far, and the situation in Ireland it might still all go tits up if it's no deal. I'm thankful that at least some sort of effort was made by the British government to negotiate with Ireland and the EU and to get some border arrangements in place to try to preserve the Good Friday Agreement.

As opposed to the other train of thought some people have which seems to be that leaving with no deal is somehow a good thing.

No you didnt, which is why I didnt address that point to you and instead expressed it as a generality.

 

[stevoc]

No you didnt, which is why I didnt address that point to you and instead expressed it as a generality.

Ok no worries mate fair enough, yeah i agree theres a lot of ignorance on both sides. From personal observation there seems to be a very vocal section on the leave side that display staggering levels of ignorance though. I don't know for certain if they are a minority or not i'm sure they are, no doubt lots of intelligent well informed people also voted leave for a myriad of reasons.

But with all the bullshit that has been spewed over the last 2-3 years by basically everyone from politicians to pub landlords. I think it does highlight why such a complex question with wide ranging and possibly long lasting consequences for this country shouldn't have been put to the people in such a simple in/out referendum.

 

[Maticmaker]

So let me get this right you think the UK governments stance from day one should have been to not even try to negotiate any sort of withdrawal agreement?

They should have just let the 2 years run down and crash out with no deal, make no effort to agree to border arrangements in Ireland and jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement?

There was no negotiated withdrawal deal to be had with the EU, just a litany from the EU of what they expected us to do on leaving and to request a lump sum for doing so. May found this out eventually, although it should have been obvious from day one.
Even if for the sake of saving face, we had to look like we were negotiating a withdrawal agreement, we should still have behind the scenes at home been preparing for a no deal. For the UK the main element in the withdrawal arrangement would always be what we paid the EU, in terms of agreed debt. The backstop is a nonsense, all parties agreed there will be no hard border re-introduced on the Isle of Ireland, so whose going to do it, May has said time and again it wont be us?

The UK's main concern is the new trade agreement, which the EU has made clear cannot be negotiated until we have left the EU, so we leave t1hen deal. Not the best solution, but the only solution, unless you cancel Brexit altogether, which I believe will happen, when both main parties can agree not to blame the other for this outcome.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

There was no negotiated withdrawal deal to be had with the EU, just a litany from the EU of what they expected us to do on leaving and to request a lump sum for doing so. May found this out eventually, although it should have been obvious from day one.
Even if for the sake of saving face, we had to look like we were negotiating a withdrawal agreement, we should still have behind the scenes at home been preparing for a no deal. For the UK the main element in the withdrawal arrangement would always be what we paid the EU, in terms of agreed debt. The backstop is a nonsense, all parties agreed there will be no hard border re-introduced on the Isle of Ireland, so whose going to do it, May has said time and again it wont be us?

The UK's main concern is the new trade agreement, which the EU has made clear cannot be negotiated until we have left the EU, so we leave t1hen deal. Not the best solution, but the only solution, unless you cancel Brexit altogether, which I believe will happen, when both main parties can agree not to blame the other for this outcome.

You said the same thing yesterday and it was all explained but you still repeat the same. You don't undertstand .

 

[Maticmaker]

You said the same thing yesterday and it was all explained but you still repeat the same. You don't undertstand .

No, a point of view was put forward, some of which I agree with but not all.

What I do understand is that May couldn't negotiate her way out of a paper-bag and Corbyn couldn't find his way into one to start with. This why eventually I believe these incompetent politicians will finish up cancelling Brexit, but only if they can agree not to blame each other, but lay the blame at the door of the dastardly EU. We will then return meekly to the fold and watch the continual-loop Farage show in the European Parliament and the largest group of anti-EU MEPS ever assembled!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No, a point of view was put forward, some of which I agree with but not all.

What I do understand is that May couldn't negotiate her way out of a paper-bag and Corbyn couldn't find his way into one to start with. This why eventually I believe these incompetent politicians will finish up cancelling Brexit, but only if they can agree not to blame each other, but lay the blame at the door of the dastardly EU. We will then return meekly to the fold and watch the continual-loop Farage show in the European Parliament and the largest group of anti-EU MEPS ever assembled!

The problem is the UK government implied they would have a trade agreement in place at the end of the two years.

The two years were to guarantee citizens rights and start untangling all the legal issues that 46 years of being so closely associated involves. The financial settlement is a very minor point but a point of principle. The Irish border is the other major point to which there is no solution but which the backstop provides a way for the UK to technically leave the EU.

I don't blame May for not negotiating a different agreement but pretending that she could negotiate a different agreement.
The trade talks will start after the UK leaves.

Still to bear in mind that negotiating a trade deal does not solve the backstop.

Don't think any one in parliament has got the guts to cancel Brexit.

Things may have been different , if the UK had been better represented in the EU instead of voting a moron like Farage and his pals who instead of looking after their constituents' interests just used the few occasions they bothered to turn up in the EU parliament to throw insults around. Don't know how he got away with it for so long.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

There was no negotiated withdrawal deal to be had with the EU, just a litany from the EU of what they expected us to do on leaving and to request a lump sum for doing so. May found this out eventually, although it should have been obvious from day one.
Even if for the sake of saving face, we had to look like we were negotiating a withdrawal agreement, we should still have behind the scenes at home been preparing for a no deal. For the UK the main element in the withdrawal arrangement would always be what we paid the EU, in terms of agreed debt. The backstop is a nonsense, all parties agreed there will be no hard border re-introduced on the Isle of Ireland, so whose going to do it, May has said time and again it wont be us?

The UK's main concern is the new trade agreement, which the EU has made clear cannot be negotiated until we have left the EU, so we leave t1hen deal. Not the best solution, but the only solution, unless you cancel Brexit altogether, which I believe will happen, when both main parties can agree not to blame the other for this outcome.

This is a good read, which demonstrates the real back and forth that went on in the negotiation, and some of the concessions the EU made to get the Withdrawal Agreement finalised:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1207/1015924-brexit-backstop-uk/

 

[Ducklegs]

Ok no worries mate fair enough, yeah i agree theres a lot of ignorance on both sides. From personal observation there seems to be a very vocal section on the leave side that display staggering levels of ignorance though. I don't know for certain if they are a minority or not i'm sure they are, no doubt lots of intelligent well informed people also voted leave for a myriad of reasons.

But with all the bullshit that has been spewed over the last 2-3 years by basically everyone from politicians to pub landlords. I think it does highlight why such a complex question with wide ranging and possibly long lasting consequences for this country shouldn't have been put to the people in such a simple in/out referendum.

Absolutely, but by the same token there is a case for trying to understand why these people voted as they did and if there is a case to made for “they are just a bit thick”.

We know why they did, the poor neighborhoods are the places all the refugees and immigrants igrants get placed, places where services and standards of living are already poor get lowered even further by us importing further poverty into those areas.

Crime increases, cultures clash, racial tensions increase, and these neighbourhoods, Splott in Cardiff, areas of Bullwell and Beeston in Nottingham, Bretton in Peterborough, turn into what are effectively demilitarized zones.

And Europe carried the can.

It carried the can for everything, lack of work at the bottom end of society, lack of services due to increased strain looking after our freshely imported peasant population.

I imagine if more us lived in that situation we might have a better understanding of the “why” even if we dont agree with it.

 

[Buster15]

There was no negotiated withdrawal deal to be had with the EU, just a litany from the EU of what they expected us to do on leaving and to request a lump sum for doing so. May found this out eventually, although it should have been obvious from day one.
Even if for the sake of saving face, we had to look like we were negotiating a withdrawal agreement, we should still have behind the scenes at home been preparing for a no deal. For the UK the main element in the withdrawal arrangement would always be what we paid the EU, in terms of agreed debt. The backstop is a nonsense, all parties agreed there will be no hard border re-introduced on the Isle of Ireland, so whose going to do it, May has said time and again it wont be us?

The UK's main concern is the new trade agreement, which the EU has made clear cannot be negotiated until we have left the EU, so we leave t1hen deal. Not the best solution, but the only solution, unless you cancel Brexit altogether, which I believe will happen, when both main parties can agree not to blame the other for this outcome.

No. Brexit will not be cancelled. That will not be allowed to happen for many reasons.

What I do believe will happen is that there will be a minimal change to the WA Backstop and when it is put to Parliament there will be just enough of a majority to accept it.

There is not sufficient appetite for a no deal, not sufficient appetite for a second referendum and not sufficient appetite to withdraw Article 50.

Remember. Politicians are past masters self preservation.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

No you didnt, which is why I didnt address that point to you and instead expressed it as a generality.

Any chance you could address the posts by @africanspur ?