Her legacy will be akin to Anthony Eden's.
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Will depend what ammendments are called
The 2 most interesting in my mind are the cooper letwin which would either force the vote next week.... Or let parliament take control
I think there is another ammendment which says the deal will be approved provided there is a ratification referendum
Either of those two amendments would throw a huge spanner in the works for Mays plan to run the clock down to a deal or no deal vote
What are we at now - 99% no deal.
Sleepwalking. Absolutely nothing has changed since mid-November and May has managed to run down the clock.
People keep talking about amendments, extensions to A50, the EU going to blink etc but all that's happening is a no deal exit.
Sleepwalking. Absolutely nothing has changed since mid-November and May has managed to run down the clock.
People keep talking about amendments, extensions to A50, the EU going to blink etc but all that's happening is a no deal exit.
Brexit could be delayed until 2021 under plans being explored by the EU’s most senior officials, at a time of growing exasperation over Theresa May’s handling of the talks, the Guardian can reveal.
A lengthy extension of the negotiating period is said by EU sources to be favoured by Donald Tusk, the European council president, should the Commons continue to reject May’s deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal
A lengthy extension of the negotiating period is said by EU sources to be favoured by Donald Tusk, the European council president, should the Commons continue to reject May’s deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal
Or a last minute complete about turn, with Brexit cancelled.
In such a situation May then 'falls on her sword' and she hands the leadership of Tory party over to the ERG's preferred candidate, or whoever wants the poisoned chalice!
Why has it puzzled/surprised so many people for so long, that the outcome of a binary referendum was always going to be one or the other, either a straight Remain or a straight Leave. Nothing's changed in two years and if they push back art 50 another six or twelve months, it will still be the same situation.
We've had a people's vote, we've had Parlimentary approval to initiate Art 50, so we leave on the 29th of next month...or May capitulates and cancels Brexit!
Yeah the second one you mention seems to be carrying a lot of support and Labour are apparently close to supporting it officially.
I think Mays deal would win in that scenario but at least we'd have a clear direction whatever the result.....then just on to the trade deal
May thinks she has one mission and one mission only and that is to take the UK out of the EU. If she can do that by the end of March she will feel she has accomplished her mission. Nothing else seems to matter. She knows she has little time left in any case as PM. So her captitulating seems remote.
She's survived the no confidence votes and is still on course.
Deep down May is a Remainer, she is holding off the ERG with a sort of 'stiff arm' handoff run towards the deadline, that is until the last minute, then she capitulates, takes the blame for No Brexit, but leavers her party a second chance to try again next year, after all the Tories have been falling out about the EU for forty odd years, this is the long game for the ERG. They will live to fight another day. Corbyn will try to claim credit for turning May, but her resignation letter will sort all that out... in fact both leaders will be looking for a new job!
oh sweet boy, may don't give a shit about remaining, she's living her dream of being in charge of everything
How the feck did Britain rule a quarter of the planet? Remain has a very young, relatively political base and all they've managed to do is go for a nice stroll in London.
Don't think May is any more of a remainer than Corbyn is.
She wants to be remembered as the one who delivered 'the will of the people' and took the UK out. Don't see her resigning. She could have done that numerous times in the last few months and she's still standing.
She’s no remainer, look at her record in HO
Should have signed up to ancestry.com to see if was eligible for dual citizenship a long time ago!
Absolute disgrace.
Fiddling whilst Rome burns.
If Parliament sit back and let this happen then there is no hope for the country.
Just seen the March 12 date. Will parliament allow this cnut get away with this shit?
she's playing chicken hoping that they'll vote for her deal
I know. Not even being opaque.
If the cooper letwin amendment goes through this week then no...
She will be forced to have the vote this week or to let parliment take over the next steps (which would almost certainly to be to compell the government to extend A50)
I think it has a good chance of passing... It seems enough of those that will vote for her deal are worried about delaying and increasing the chance of no deal
Gut feel it passes...
She then has to agree an extension with the EU
Less likley put a distinct possibility she then frames it as labour are blocking brexit and brings a motion forward for a general election... And bases a campaign around that.
Decent article on the timings of it all
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-24/why-an-orderly-negotiated-brexit-will-live-or-die-on-march-12/
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Again I disagree. for mi is "no deal" 99% out of the table. May is playing chicken with the EU. They were stupid enough to think that Brexit would be easy and that the EU would bent at the UK desires. But along this 2 years they realized that a No deal brexit would be a disaster and that the EU will not bent to the UK requests. So even in their stupidity, they know that they can't continue with a No deal scenario. Is May's plan or pull out
Probably.
And what has changed since the vote she canned last year in December? It's a farce.
Extend A50 for what purpose?
An extension has to be agreed by the E27 and to have a different change of direction and a goal.
There is no consensus in parliament.
They won't extend it just to have endless discussions going round in circles.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
The NHS is falling apart but nobody really cares because of Brexit. They unveiled this grand plan for the NHS a few months ago, with prevention at ts forefront and then cut the budget for public health.
Numbers of doctors applying for training falling, number of EU applicants dropping and number of nurses leaving their jobs rising. Morale at rock bottom throughout. God only knows what they're going to push through to make things 'better' next time.
As I say I could see her using an extension forced on her to call a ge... It's one of the things the EU has said would be likley to get them to agree the extension ... Plus it gives her an opportunity to present labour as being the drivers behind blocking brexit... Plus take advantage of the shambolic state they are currently in.
There is also an argument that she actually wants cooper letwin to pass which would allow parliament to take control of brexit on 13th march ... She then presents her deal with the Cox codpiece attached and tells the erg and dup they back the deal or parliament will take over the following day... Might get them on board ... Plus remain conservative MPs might be nervous to vote against knowing a general election could be called the next day if an extension is forced.
In that scenario it could be down to labour leave MP's Vs conservative remain MP's... And that would be a very close vote.
Surely it must be how they will spend the extra 350m a week from April onwards
The NHS is falling apart but nobody really cares because of Brexit. They unveiled this grand plan for the NHS a few months ago, with prevention at ts forefront and then cut the budget for public health.
God only knows what they're going to push through to make things 'better' next time.
That's the overall plan though, isn't it. Make it worse, and worse and worse until the British public start to come around to the idea of privatized care and selling off the NHS.
If a GE would need to lead to a change in position but it won't.
Taking a step back, the reason the current agreement won't get through parliament is because the Uk may be tied to a permanent customs union.
The only direction to take to change the current withdrawal agreement is .... to join a permanent customs union (which is what the objection is) .... or cancel Brexit - both seems unlikely.
An extension doesn't seem worth it because parliament will never agree on anything.
This is spot on, but which scenario is most unlikely?
Attachment to a permanent CU blows away a lot of Red lines and includes a weakening of what is supposed to be May's main red line FOM. The Brino that results pleases no one except maybe some elements in the EU. If the No deal (as we are told) is going to be a suicidal outcome, then any party or individual politician backing this is finished for decades in the UK.
So, if you cant get what you want, and what you can get is not what the majority want, then you stand still and wait for the space to form around you and be ready to receive the ball (Scholesy turned this into a fine Art on the pitch). May pulls Art 50 then disappears into the sunset. History will then judge her as to whether she was the biggest traitor ever to the people of the UK, or their Saviour. A May legacy will be left either way!
I really wish people wouldn't use the "playing chicken" anology when it comes to brexit and dealing with the EU.
In a game of chicken both sides have a definite direction and that direction is in direct conflict. If someone doesn't move both parties will be destroyed.
This is not what is happening with Brexit.
With Brexit the UK is on a motorway along with the rest of the European nations. It is indicating that it is going to leave the motorway. The rest of the traffic is keen that they come off the motorway in a safe way, but is more concerned with getting to their destination, having a nice picnic, and maybe choosing which attractions to stop off at along the way.
If Britain decides to just drive off the motorway and head towards some cliffs, that is not playing "chicken" it's an act of madness.
It's time to confiscate the drivers keys as they have clearly lost the plot.
A night in a motorway service motel should give them the cold harsh grasp of reality that being a satellite of America rather than a European nation is a grim prospect.
In a game of chicken both sides have a definite direction and that direction is in direct conflict. If someone doesn't move both parties will be destroyed.
This is not what is happening with Brexit.
With Brexit the UK is on a motorway along with the rest of the European nations. It is indicating that it is going to leave the motorway. The rest of the traffic is keen that they come off the motorway in a safe way, but is more concerned with getting to their destination, having a nice picnic, and maybe choosing which attractions to stop off at along the way.
If Britain decides to just drive off the motorway and head towards some cliffs, that is not playing "chicken" it's an act of madness.
It's time to confiscate the drivers keys as they have clearly lost the plot.
A night in a motorway service motel should give them the cold harsh grasp of reality that being a satellite of America rather than a European nation is a grim prospect.
I am also slightly hopeful the EU27, (or at least one country which would be enough) would just say "no" if May asks for an extension.
They might as well force a conclusion one way or the other. It's not like the options will change with an extension.
I think that would probably spell the end of May, the government, and Brexit ,for the time being anyway.
Can't be exactly sure of the outcome of such a move so a little risky, some in the EU27 must be tempted to do that.
RAWK's take:
She really only has two options:
1. Try to persuade the EU to change the WA sufficiently to go to Parliament and get her deal accepted. I see little chance of this as the EU has repeatedly to her this is not going to happen.
2. Run the clock down (which is precisely what she is doing) so Parliament only has her deal or no deal; hoping that her deal is the lessor of the two evils.
Potentially another contempt motion if they don't publish no deal economic advice
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...t-publish-no-deal-brexit-advice-a8795831.html
Also...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...t-publish-no-deal-brexit-advice-a8795831.html
Also...
Seems the EU would agree to extend
https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...-50-extension-minister-suggests-politics-live
And that would be exactly the outcome.
There is no point in trying to extend the timescales as nothing has or will change.
For us, it is decision time. We voted to leave the EU and so we should either
accept her deal as it stands or leave with no deal.
Nothing in this world is perfect and we are at the point of least worse wins.
That being the case I cannot see how no deal could be argued as being least worse.
Has to be unanimous EU27 to extend. Agree it's likely they would all agree.
I'm not sure if they should though. Maybe better to say to May "You made your bed and now you've got to lie in it". Force the UK to decide something. 2 years is enough, isn't it?
Or at least say no extension till concrete voted through plan for what you're going to do
Frankly that is probably what May deserves.
Complete and utter shambles. How are we simply being led off the edge of a cliff and nothing and no one is doing anything to stop it? We have a choice of a deal which suits no one but May, no deal which is by all accounts going to drive the country into financial ruin, and we're seemingly too scared to either provide a final vote or revoke this disaster in case people get upset. What do they think the reaction will be if companies keep closing and jobs keep being lost? What about when the already struggling NHS can't cope any more? What about the almost inevitable hard border and serious risk of the troubles kicking off again? It's as if they think people will just shrug their shoulders and be happy we're out of the EU.
The fact that there's no opposition standing against this and campaigning is lunacy. How is it that someone like James O'Brien is the biggest voice against Brexit and not one of the opposition shutting down the pure lies coming from Farage/Boris/JRM et al?
The fact that there's no opposition standing against this and campaigning is lunacy. How is it that someone like James O'Brien is the biggest voice against Brexit and not one of the opposition shutting down the pure lies coming from Farage/Boris/JRM et al?