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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Tories are unionists and would never accept the chance of NI being split off like that, never mind the DUP and ERG. This is a non offer that was already vetoed by May in the negotiations before.

Hopefully if May loses the vote again she will be finally forced out...

The best thing the EU can do is refuse to extend past the 29th without something concrete, voted through parliament, a firm decided on course of action.

The options haven't changed since December. Parliament don't want to make a decision as there are no good options... That is why May must go first, May is responsible for this shambles.

3 options are the subjugation "deal" May has "negotiated", no deal, or withdraw article 50 and no Brexit.

I prefer the latter, and to keep the question open, no nightmare undemocratic second referendum which would probably be a "bloodbath", the UK leaving or not can be dealt with in the far future. Then a GE where everyone except the most fanatical will be keen to get back to domestic affairs for the moment.
 
There is nothing undemocratic about another referendum especially as it would presumably asking people to choose between actual real world options - doubly so when things are utterly deadlocked. You can think it undesirable because it might cause a "bloodbath" if you want to but the idea that a democratic vote is undemocratic because isn't supportable.
 
I admit I've been suffering from Brexit fatigue, so I'm definitely out of touch, but Newsnight has maybe just clarified something for me. I kept reading there will be a vote on 'ruling out a no deal', which is obviously nonsense as the UK can't unilaterally do that, but apparently the vote will actually be whether to 'leave with no deal', which in contrast can be done unilaterally. The vote will fail of course, and I presume it's there just to shut the ERG up for a bit, but at least I can see a bit of sense to it now. Why the press keep saying the vote will be to 'rule out no deal' when it isn't I've no idea, they don't help, as usual.
 
May sounding increasingly desperate in her Grimsby speech. I wonder if she will still be PM this time next week?
 
MoskvaRed said:
May sounding increasingly desperate in her Grimsby speech. I wonder if she will still be PM this time next week?
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I think so... There does not seem to be a 2/3 majority to vote for a ge... Probably not even 50% to succeed with a confidence motion.

The only thing I could see is if forced to apply for an extension she might call a ge (at which point if it's called by her I'd guess she would get the 2/3... And then it becomes pitched as a leave Vs remain (conservative Vs others) the only problem with that is I don't think the erg would agree with a manifesto that included Mays deal... Equally you could see significant labour movement to Tig if they don't get a 2nd referendum with remain in the labour manifesto... So a ge would be a brave call and if we had a brexit party with the erg and farrage the conservatives as well as Tig+libs and labour plus the SNP and ni parties getting their usual regional representation then its hard to see anything other than a hung parliament.
So yeah I don't think she's going anywhere till either a hard brexit has happened or she has her (or a very similar deal through).
 
Wibble said:
There is nothing undemocratic about another referendum especially as it would presumably asking people to choose between actual real world options - doubly so when things are utterly deadlocked. You can think it undesirable because it might cause a "bloodbath" if you want to but the idea that a democratic vote is undemocratic because isn't supportable.
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For remoaners, the definition of democracy is to keep voting/ holding neverndums and getting the outcome they want

I also suspect that any 2nd referendum would be rigged with 3 options - 2 Brexit and 1 remain, to split the Brexit vote
 
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711 said:
I admit I've been suffering from Brexit fatigue, so I'm definitely out of touch, but Newsnight has maybe just clarified something for me. I kept reading there will be a vote on 'ruling out a no deal', which is obviously nonsense as the UK can't unilaterally do that, but apparently the vote will actually be whether to 'leave with no deal', which in contrast can be done unilaterally. The vote will fail of course, and I presume it's there just to shut the ERG up for a bit, but at least I can see a bit of sense to it now. Why the press keep saying the vote will be to 'rule out no deal' when it isn't I've no idea, they don't help, as usual.
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Most of Parliament have no idea what they're doing and clearly most of the press don't either. If decent journalists could have posed incisive questions to these charlatans things would be a lot clearer to the public long ago.

The only way to rule out no deal is to agree the deal or cancel Brexit. Neither of these, of course, will have a majority.
 
Bola said:
I also suspect that any 2nd referendum would be rigged with 3 options - 2 Brexit and 1 remain, to split the Brexit vote
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I doubt that question would be approved by the electoral commission unless structured in 2 parts

I.e. leave or remain as part one

And if leave wins a secondary option of
Leave with the transition deal on offer
Leave without the transition deal
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Most of Parliament have no idea what they're doing and clearly most of the press don't either. If decent journalists could have posed incisive questions to these charlatans things would be a lot clearer to the public long ago.

The only way to rule out no deal is to agree the deal or cancel Brexit. Neither of these, of course, will have a majority.
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Thanks Paul, that's how I read it.
 
I see the prize idiot Steven Barckley who is supposed to be the Brexit lead is demonstrating his total and complete lack of negotiation skills.

He continues to annoy the EU negotiators by blaming them for our failings rather than trying to win friends and influence them.

I have watched him on TV unable to even have a simple debate with interviewers.
He is very aggressive and condescending and obviously in a position far far above his capability.

Yet another example of us shooting ourselves in both feet.
 
Bola said:
For remoaners, the definition of democracy is to keep voting/ holding neverndums getting the outcome they want

I also suspect that any 2nd referendum would be rigged with 3 options - 2 Brexit and 1 remain, to split the Brexit vote
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Voted leave huh? Can't say I'm surprised...
 
Buster15 said:
I see the prize idiot Steven Barckley who is supposed to be the Brexit lead is demonstrating his total and complete lack of negotiation skills.

He continues to annoy the EU negotiators by blaming them for our failings rather than trying to win friends and influence them.

I have watched him on TV unable to even have a simple debate with interviewers.
He is very aggressive and condescending and obviously in a position far far above his capability.

Yet another example of us shooting ourselves in both feet.
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He was fast tracked by the conservative party.... They actually had him standing as an MP when he was 25... Some 13 years before he finally became an MP... Be grateful for small mercies as he could well have been running the country by now
 
afrocentricity said:
Voted leave huh? Can't say I'm surprised...
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Apparently it's more democratic to have a side win based on lies and breaking electoral laws than having a second vote when people are more aware of the reality and have clearer choices of what they want the future to be (I don't think it will happen and if it did it would have to be Remain vs Leave followed by May's Deal vs No Deal if Leave won the first round).
 
So how's it all going to play out...
Presumably may looses the 2nd meaningful vote by less that mv1
MPs then vote against no deal
MPs then vote for an extension
May then tries mv3 and looses by a bit less than mv2
She then has to ask for an extension and macron tells her it's got to be another 2 years
She tries mv4 and looses again
Can parliament force her to accept a 2 year extension or not?
 
RORY65 said:
Apparently it's more democratic to have a side win based on lies and breaking electoral laws than having a second vote when people are more aware of the reality and have clearer choices of what they want the future to be (I don't think it will happen and if it did it would have to be Remain vs Leave followed by May's Deal vs No Deal if Leave won the first round).
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Yup seems to be the default response from them. Smacks of fear that their skinny majority has abandoned them... I think they are right to be apprehensive. They can stfu about 'the will of the people' now though...
 
sun_tzu said:
So how's it all going to play out...
Presumably may looses the 2nd meaningful vote by less that mv1
MPs then vote against no deal
MPs then vote for an extension
May then tries mv3 and looses by a bit less than mv2
She then has to ask for an extension and macron tells her it's got to be another 2 years
She tries mv4 and looses again
Can parliament force her to accept a 2 year extension or not?
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Where does that come from?
 
Bola said:
For remoaners, the definition of democracy is to keep voting/ holding neverndums getting the outcome they want

I also suspect that any 2nd referendum would be rigged with 3 options - 2 Brexit and 1 remain, to split the Brexit vote
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I mean hey, it's just first past the post.
 
P-Nut said:
I'm guessing withdrawing and triggering art 50 again
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This has nothing to do with Macron then. Macron and the french government official position is no extension at all unless the UK gives a good reason for it.
 
Ubik said:
I mean hey, it's just first past the post.
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Could always just do 'No Deal' and 'May's Deal'. The remoaners get their 'People's Vote'. Those IRG turncoats can also do the decent thing and have a by-election
 
sun_tzu said:
I doubt that question would be approved by the electoral commission unless structured in 2 parts

I.e. leave or remain as part one

And if leave wins a secondary option of
Leave with the transition deal on offer
Leave without the transition deal
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That would be fairer, but there is the argument that part 1 has happened, so go straight to Part 2.

Not that I have a lot of faith in the commission on this issue. Both sides will rightly point to the false promises and soe ding on the referendum campaign, bit i think its a disgrace that millions of pounds of taxpayers money was spent on that biased 'impartial' leaflet issues by Cameron's govt.
 
What's the point of an extension? What brexit agreement would actually get enough votes to pass in parliament?Presumably it would have to involve Scotland staying in the EU...
 
altodevil said:
What's the point of an extension? What brexit agreement would actually get enough votes to pass in parliament?Presumably it would have to involve Scotland staying in the EU...
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The Kyle-Wilson plan is the only thing that really makes sense at the moment, which would require an extension. The only other options are May's current plan to let time run out, and crashing out.
 
sun_tzu said:
Some rumours are France will reject a 3 month extension saying it's not long enough to negotiate a new deal... Which in fairness is probably true
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But that's my question where are these rumours coming from because the current stance in France is that there is no new deal to negotiate and that there is no point to an extension.
 
Bola said:
For remoaners, the definition of democracy is to keep voting/ holding neverndums getting the outcome they want

I also suspect that any 2nd referendum would be rigged with 3 options - 2 Brexit and 1 remain, to split the Brexit vote
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Seems like democracy for leavers is denying people the right to change their mind.
 
Smores said:
Seems like democracy for leavers is denying people the right to change their mind.
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And don't forget insinuating that they might turn violent to scare people into thinking that another vote might not be a good idea.
 
sun_tzu said:
He was fast tracked by the conservative party.... They actually had him standing as an MP when he was 25... Some 13 years before he finally became an MP... Be grateful for small mercies as he could well have been running the country by now
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So. Yet another so called professional politician...
Fast tracked on what basis I wonder.
Says something about the people who he impressed doesn't it. We must be bereft of quality if he is anything to go by. He has a massive amount of learning to do before he could be considered even remotely capable.
 
Smores said:
Seems like democracy for leavers is denying people the right to change their mind.
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If people change their mind, then we could have a 3rd vote in case people change their mind again, then a 5th, 7th......

It was a referendum, not a neverendum
 
sun_tzu said:
Think I heard it on brexitcast from I think Laura k
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So, since I was very surprised I searched for it and if you are referring to the podcast from the 2/27. She is speculating and wondered what would happen if the EU told May that the only possible extension was 2 years, she then joked about Macron being against the idea of attending a new Brexit emergency summit.
 
Bola said:
If people change their mind, then we could have a 3rd vote in case people change their mind again, then a 5th, 7th......

It was a referendum, not a neverendum
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I assume you voted once when you turned 18 and never voted again, right?
 
NinjaFletch said:
I assume you voted once when you turned 18 and never voted again, right?
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So you are saying that a referendum issue should be repeated every 5 years like the GE? Perhaps we should do the same thing on every law that is passed in the Commons, by having it revoted on every 2-5 years

Politics isn't a survey monkey form or a down/ upward vote on a you tube video
 
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