The logical place for him to go would be China imo - with as you say a special form of immunity where he can't be prosecuted for anything that happened in NK and his and his family's personal safety are guaranteed. Xi could easily guarantee all of that, but he likely wouldn't because China doesn't want to see a democratic Korean superstate directly on its border.
North Korea
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The logical place for him to go would be China imo - with as you say a special form of immunity where he can't be prosecuted for anything that happened in NK and his and his family's personal safety are guaranteed. Xi could easily guarantee all of that, but he likely wouldn't because China doesn't want to see a democratic Korean superstate directly on its border.
Or fat dictator with nukes could tell Trump to go feck himself, and remind him that any action against NK will be met with the immediate destruction of Seoul.
Somehow I don't think Kim is interested in suicide.
Or the other fat dictator with nukes could tell Kim to go fek himself and remind him it's America first and he does not give a feck if Seoul gets nuked as he doesn't have a hotel there...
Can't help but think this place is gonna end up as trump Pyongyang in some cut price deal
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryugyong_Hotel
Which is why he'll keep his nukes and Trump's only option will be to carry on with his childish posturing until the end of his term as president.
He desperately needs sanctions relief which can't be achieved without US support, so he is likely to want to make some sort of deal. Although I doubt it will happen immediately.
Except even Trump isn't as stupid as that. So long as Kim has his nukes he's safe.
Surely Trump will know in the first 10 seconds, you're not saying he'll be able to resist telling the rest of us are you?
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Did you forget the small detail that China is still guaranteeing NK’s security in the face of any first strike against them?
WWIII, what could go wrong?
Exactly. But you’d imagine NK would factor in that the US would never trigger that, and that Trump’s aides would manage to rein him in. Whether that’s true or not, who knows.
It’s extremely unlikely however that Kim is going to roll over. He’s an absolute dictator, and they don’t tend to give up that kind of power willingly. They also certainly did not miss those references to Libya a few weeks ago. Kim will know he doesn’t just have to protect his power, but also his life.
It makes no sense for Kim to rollover.
There would be no guarantee of anything since if NK attacked the south or US interests, it would mean the instant end of Kim and his regime, as well as a catastrophic knock on effect of millions of deaths in both the north and south. Therefore, negotiations with some sort of tangible benefit involving sanctions relief in exchange for gradual disarmament will be the more attractive option.
I suspect Kim would think disarmament leads to and end like Gaddafi...
That's why there has to be a provision guaranteeing his safety if the shit hits the fan at home imo. He would also have to reorient his propaganda efforts away from "nukes are our ticket to security and recognition" to "cooperation is the ticket to our future prosperity". That way, deescalating from nukes will not be perceived as an act of weakness among domestics.
You're giving a false choice between Kim attacking the south and disarmament. Those aren't his only choices.
But the way the US has conducted its foreign policy in the last 2 years (eg Iran deal), would probably make him think any assurances the Trump government makes will simply be ignored when someone else is elected.
The other choice being do nothing while sanctions continue to erode Kim from within. The US (especially under Trump) is obviously not going to allow NK to continue stockpiling nukes that can strike either the south or US interests, so the pressure will only continue to ratchet up until Kim buckles.
That's the one. As for allowing him to stockpile nukes, that's exactly what's happened isn't it? If the yanks were going to take serious action wouldnt it have made a little bit of sense to do it before he had the nukes and missiles and not afterwards?
Why would anyone trust a Trump guarantee of anything? He’s just attacked America’s oldest and closest allies. He has a lifelong history of throwing his most loyal aides under the bus the moment he doesn’t need them anymore. You really think the hyper-paranoid dictatorship of NK is going to walk down that road?
You have two different US governments with diverging approaches, so its unlikely that Obama would've done something when he was in office, that Trump would do now. Trump is nutty enough to pull the trigger if things get bad enough.
Kim has no option than to cooperate and strike some sort of deal imo, especially now that he's peaked behind the proverbial curtain and gotten a whiff of international recognition. He simply can't return to the construct of 4 months ago where it looked like war might be on the horizon, especially with his economy in the shape that its in due to sanctions. If he can get sanctions relief (with the resulting economic stimulus) and international recognition, then that will be a powerful incentive for a denuclearization deal, which I think would also give Trump some slack to gradually remove US troops and weapons from the peninsula.
Same mistake as last time, you're postulating a future that isn't going to happen. Kim won't attack anyone, he'll just keep his nukes and sleep sound at night.
Yeah his people will be poor, but he'll blame that on foreigners anyway, it's what dictators always do. (maybe Trumps too).
He won't have such an option because he wouldn't be going back to the same old sanctions of the past. If a deal fails they will be progressively ratcheted up to choke the NK economy far worse than now. The purpose of sanctions is to apply pressure through a carrots and sticks approach to make the other side think about the benefits of cooperation.
I think most people have managed to grasp the concept of sanctions, the question is, do they work. South Africa possibly, but elsewhere it varies from debatable to not. In this case all Kim has to do is make friends with China again and he's cracked it anyway. That'll be the China that Trump's getting on so well with at the moment.
Between 1994 and 1998, North Korea went though a famine that killed anywhere between 240,000 to 3.5 million people. Out of a population of 22 million. This is not a family dynasty that gives a single feck about the effect of sanctions on their people, because their people have spent generations now fully understanding that even when they’re starving, any sign of rebellion will mean even more extreme misery and death for not only themselves but their whole families.
On the broader point of which, the media seem to be skipping over quite easily the fact that NK is run in a very similar way to Nazi Germany, and that Trump will be shaking hands with a guy who has personally ordered the torture and murder of countless people.
If Kim didn't care about sanctions he would never even entertain the idea of a meeting to negotiate getting rid of them. The fact is he desperately needs sanctions relief in order to gain access to capital and materials needed to further develop North Korea from within.
Its one of those you can't win situations. Either you are getting blamed for not negotiating or you're getting blamed for negotiating with a tyrant. In this case, everyone is better off if negotiations are taking place.
Oh don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he cares. A lot. But what I dispute is the idea that he has no choice. His family have done the unthinkable on countless occasions and with utmost ruthlessness. Considering the blood purges of Kim’s early time at the top, I think it would be extremely rash to assume he’s any different.
Indeed, but there’s also a moral imperative to remember who he is and what his family have done. We can’t say ‘never forget’ about 6 million Jewish deaths, and then blur over millions of North Korean ones just because it’s politically convenient.
50p on them getting on too well and America adopting a hard line towards South Korea.
“South Korea has been so UNFAIR on North Korea. TARIFFS so high that they don’t even trade. Must fix TRADE. Nice Border Wall though.”
These two nut jobs are gonna become besties, aren’t they?
"So these labour camps then, you just put people you dislike into them?"
Not that long ago it was made out that WWIII was almost starting. Fear mongering on a grand scale. Wouldn't surprise me if they influenced the media in this way so it looks like an incredible achievement down the line.