If Kim gives up the nukes, there's no way he stays alive for very long. Whoever does end up taking him out will happily ask for and receive forgiveness, vs the much more difficult path of seeking permission. Any guarantee of his safety would be a flimsy, at best, which I'm sure he'd know.
North Korea
- Thread starter Raoul
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Raoul is very Naive. No way that Kim is giving up power in exchange of protection.
He will eventually, since reunification pressure will be too big. Totalitarian states are going away in general.
This concerns me slightly. If Kim does agree to start (just start mind you) to denuclearise won’t it be in exchange for the US leaving SK. If the US leave SK then China may then back Kim.
This.
We should have just guaranteed Saddams safety for life.
Removing US troops will be the very last thing that is done if all other prerequisites are accomplished.
Initially, Kim simply wants economic sanctions relief and guarantees that the US won't attempt to topple his regime militarily or otherwise. In exchange (for example) the US may ask that Kim completely denuclearize and formally put an end to the North/South war that has been frozen for 65 years.
If both nations end the war, the north denuclearizes, and has economic sanctions relief from the US, then you have the conditions for the US to gradually withdraw its forces. If reunification is on the table then they can withdraw them even faster.
China has the most authoritarian president since Mao. Russia has the most authoritarian president since Secretary Stalin. Erdoğan on Turkey and Orban in Hungary are following Putin's way on going full totalitarian. Israel, India, Egypt among others have extremely right wing populist leaders. So has US for that matter.
Your wishes don't reflect the real world.
These aren't my wishes, they are systemic pressures that are a result of the globalization of technology, information, and norms. The states you listed may have draconian leaders but the publics in each of those states are increasingly sophisticated, technology savvy, and interested in liberalization. This will eventually make it impossible for the dictatorships to survive. You have to think beyond the tip of your own nose sometimes.
Not to mention Syria, where the US has been humiliated as Russia and Iran have backed the winners.
There are no winners in Syria. Assad controls a fraction of the country he once ruled before the Arab spring. If anyone has come out ahead there, its the Kurds, who now control a large swath of the northern part of the country.
Ah don't say that, I was still hoping the US's mythical moderate allies would sweep to power and hold free elections before Christmas.
It helps to be on the side of moderates as opposed to totalitarians.
His safety would be guaranteed by China, who would be the one ramrodding this process behind the scenes and whose authority no one will question.
It's not like he'll be off to a yacht off the French Riveria. He'd remain as a figurehead with Xi pulling the strings and Kim taking the credit for the rapidly improving lives of North Koreans.
Not sure if Xi would be interested in that sort of deal since he is generally interested in keeping North Korea alive as a buffer between having to deal with a fully democratic, unified Korea on China's doorstep.
Trump - Kim (Jong Un that is) meeting back on for June 12th.
Just saw that, crazy how it changes from week to week
The North Koreans understand the man (child)...
Deleted.
"AGAIN nuclear arms a NOT a metaphor for your genitals"
«I pray to God they never have to be used»
Looking like the summit will be no more than a meet and greet (Trump photo op) according to CNN.
Kim one isn't so bad. The Trump impersonator looks terrible.
Kim one could be his identical twin. Think it’s the guy who showed up to the Winter Olympics.
Trump impersonator looks like John Madden
Kim one isn't so bad. The Trump impersonator looks terrible.
That hair is pretty hard to impersonate tbf. He looks fecking haggard though.
Dennis Rodman as just touched down.Yes Dennis Rodman.
Makes perfect sense since Rodman is one of the few people who knows both Trump and Kim well.
The Peacemaker.
Biggest sticking point when Trump and Kim meet will be North Korea denuclearization (which Trump wants) and complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula (which is the only thing Kim will accept). If Trump accepts the latter, then it will be seen as a massive (and I do mean massive) win for Kim and a complete capitulation by the US.
who cares what it is seen as? denuclearization is a Good Thing
It is if it happens, but the likelihood of it happening is in question since both sides view the term differently.
I tend to think it's inevitable.. . Perhaps some nominal figurehead role... and no doubt pretty much total immunity for anything that he's done and of course fek tons of cash.... expect to see him with diplomatic immunity... state visit privilidges round the world and partying in Vegas / courtside at the Lakers