Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Good to see Nigel Farage is continuing his calling as Britain's most utterly reprehensible prick.
If you missed Theresa May's appearance at the Liaison Committee this afternoon, it was rather similar to this.
Have you tried turning it off and on again ?
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By election...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38390152
Will be interesting... small labour majority and post brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38390152
Will be interesting... small labour majority and post brexit
Should hold it, just about. Governments don't win by-elections.
In theory... I guess it depends how ukip do post brexit and if there is a surge of remain votes for the libs... a good ukip and libs performance could in theory really hurt labour
It's pretty likely to be lost at the next general election, by-election circumstances should prevail though. If the Tories win, points to a nightmare scenario which we're hopefully not at yet.
Indeed. Nearly 35 years since that happened. However it's going to be a fascinating contest all round.
For Labour of course its a crucial test. The conditions favour the Opposition, but if the Lib Dems and UKIP both eat away at their vote its plausible if could fall to the Tories.
Big issue for the Tories is whether they see this as a winnable seat and pour resources into it. Usually Government's don't, but having lost Zac the other week they could do with every single MP right now.
UKIP increased their vote from about 900 to over 6000 between 2010 and 15, the kind of improvement they made all over the North West. Their performance might be an indicator of how they're going to do in the next election. Will they benefit from the Brexit vote, or will it be job done for their voters?
With the Lib Dems there are two interesting things. One is if they stand aside in the name of the much needed (yawn) progressive alliance we keep reading about. The other is, if they stand, will they match the improvements made elsewhere? They're directly next door to Tim Farron's constituency, which has a formidable Lib Dem ground team. Getting the vote out is half the battle in a by-election, particularly since it might be around February when the weather can be awful. They could gain some votes, though a win is highly unlikely.
And of course cutting across all of this is the Brexit question. I believe Copeland voted about 60% Leave, so there's a majority, but its still a split constituency, with a chunk of voters on either side of the fence.
Safest bet is on Labour winning with a small or no increase in majority, but could be an exciting contest. if Labour lose having lose vote share to both UKIP and Lib Dems, alarm bells will be ringing for them.
Is this really the story here?
Of course Capita and Atos are making money from running the assessments; they wouldn't have bid for the contracts if they couldn't.
The story is whether the 'fierce criticism of their services' actually deserves to be levelled at the companies themselves or if they're fulfilling the terms of the contract they were given.
On the balance of probability I would be far more likely to guess that its the government that have mandated these ridiculous assessments and they're perfectly happy to see the two companies that have taken on the job take the flak.
The fit to work assessments are a disgrace, but I'm sure they're a conservative party disgrace and - as much as Atos and Capita should be demonised for taking on the contracts - they shouldn't be allowed to get away with it by palming it off on private companies.
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Yep, good point.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/dec/31/lords-revolt-tory-plans-free-market-universities
Successive governments (red and blue) seem intent on devaluing the worth of a degree.
Successive governments (red and blue) seem intent on devaluing the worth of a degree.
In fairness having something like 40% of students in uni compared to around 15% in the early 90s probably has quite a lot to do with it... crazy policy to simply set a target (wasn't it 50% of people to go to uni / get degrees... it's fairly obvious many will come out to non graduate positions)
Good article here on the likely outcome for the Copeland by-election
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/01/copeland-election-four-ways-think-will-win.html/
In a nutshell, if modern political history is any guide, expect a 5 to 10% swing to Labour. However if what we saw in the Sleaford by-election represents the new normal rather than an anomaly, it could be neck and neck. However in no given scenario is a Tory win the likely outcome.
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/01/copeland-election-four-ways-think-will-win.html/
In a nutshell, if modern political history is any guide, expect a 5 to 10% swing to Labour. However if what we saw in the Sleaford by-election represents the new normal rather than an anomaly, it could be neck and neck. However in no given scenario is a Tory win the likely outcome.
Yeah, the latest odds are a little...odd. Seem to dramatically oversell the prospect of something that is almost unprecedented.
Indeed... odds on for a conservative win
I do wonder if it's a small market skewed by some big bets but all the bookies seem in line so perhaps it really is on the cards
https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/copeland-by-election/winner
Surely the end of corbyn if labour loose this? Which ironically would perhaps be the biggest incentive for the conservatives to find a way of gashing it up?
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This is one of the most unbelievable things I've read in a long time, mainly due to the fact that he has yet to be expelled. It's absolutely and utterly incomprehensible that he is still in the UK and speaks volumes for the influence Israel has over the UK government.
In 2023 Hunt will still be going on about Labour cutting funding to the NHS. They've been in power for nearly 7 years. Stop with the excuses.
Exclusive: Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...llor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...llor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/
In fairness labour are still blaming thatcher (or blair)
While many accept that we have a funding problem, i am not aware of a solution from either of the major parties (which might at least apply some pressure on May).
We also need to analyse and somehow reduce the increased demand in A&E visits. An year-on-year increase of 2.5 million isn't something we should be blasé about.
We also need to analyse and somehow reduce the increased demand in A&E visits. An year-on-year increase of 2.5 million isn't something we should be blasé about.
The reason for the increased number of visits to A&E is pretty simple, there are fewer places to get healthcare services than there used to be. If you reduce the level of walk in centres, community nurses, midwifery services, community mental health teams, community centres, healthcare charities and so forth, the people with health problems get channelled in to fewer and fewer avenues for healthcare. First people try their GP, and finding they can't get an appointment, go to A&E.
Good article on the problems with The Women's Equality Party.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/sandi-toks...adies-campaign-group-that-doomed-fail-1524988
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/sandi-toks...adies-campaign-group-that-doomed-fail-1524988
Pretty remarkable by election result in Sunderland. Interesting because Sunderland was famously the first leaver in the Brexit vote, but a pro-remain party has won it.
Obv with it being a smaller ward election you could have pockets of pro-Remain voters.
Obv with it being a smaller ward election you could have pockets of pro-Remain voters.
If pro remain coalesce around the libs Dems they will have a huge resurgence... especially with labour looking shambolic
Tristam Hunt out now too, another by-election on its way.
should be very safe labour hold?
2015
Lab 39.3%
UKIP 22.7%
Conservative 22.5%
Independent 6.8%
Libs 4.2%
Green 3.6%
But the seat is being abolished under the boundary changes so you may not get many high profile candidates? also it was pretty strong in favour of leave in the referendum if I recall and Labour have not exactly carved out a clear position on that recently so who knows?
If labour gash this one up though Corbyn is finished (unless they gash up the one before and that may finish him off anyway)
+41.5!?!
Any resurgence of the Lib -Dems would be good news for Labour.
Not in the slightest. Corbyn is apparently about to give a speech saying he thinks we can be better off out of the EU, so those 61% of Labour voters who voted Remain just got a kick in the teeth. There's already huge numbers of voters on the Guardian comments saying they're resigning their Labour membership and jumping ship to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems and the Greens just became the only significant parties who remain pro-EU.
What a huge loss to politics......
Labour could wheel a scarecrow up there and the people would vote for it. Should be the safest seat in the land, especially now UKIP can't whip up Brexit hysteria.
This is the ultimate test for Nuttall's UKIP strategy. Strong Leave area, Brexit still hot in the news and Corbyn likely to be high profile. If they can't at least close the gap on Labour in this election, they can pretty much forget about ever becoming a presence in Westminster.
and I think around 35% of the vote was for remain... if the libs took half that% with the majority probably coming from labour votes and either UKIP does better than expected or if their votes go to the conservatives then who knows...
Labour should hold it and in truth under normal circumstances you would expect them to increase their margin - but with corbyn and his polling popularity outside of paid up labour members then anything is possible
Thinking on it the Lib Dems really, really should be making massive gains. May's Tories have essentially abandoned Cameron's pro-EU, slightly liberal while fairly right-wing economic type of Tory party, while Corbyn has abandoned the centrist Labour that would appeal to some Lib Dems.
Anyone who wants a fairly socially liberal party without being too left-wing economically should be absolutely nailed on for the Lib Dems at the moment unless they're voting tribally.
Anyone who wants a fairly socially liberal party without being too left-wing economically should be absolutely nailed on for the Lib Dems at the moment unless they're voting tribally.