Russia Discussion

Maybe we should divide it in three and have a no-fly zone in the middle? That always works.

As a humble Brit I think Andrew Neil might have asked a fair question this morning, Do we actually have a dog in the fight?
 
712 said:
Maybe we should divide it in three and have a no-fly zone in the middle? That always works.

As a humble Brit I think Andrew Neil might have asked a fair question this morning, Do we actually have a dog in the fight?
Click to expand...

Do we have a dog in the fight
not exactly... but if russia sends in troops and wont withdraw them might fifa take the world cup away?

As a back up plan england would beva safe bet... small country so easy to travel round and good stadiums

but thats about as far as I can see us having any vested interest in it
 
Last edited:
Raoul said:
That's a somewhat irrelevant hypothetical. Kiev is the capital of Ukraine should be treated as such. Yes, Ukraine is not United, but its not as simplistic as some might suggest. There are pockets in Eastern Ukraine that are increasingly pro-Western. There are Russian speaking areas in the south that are somewhat impartial to either side.
Click to expand...

Its not irrelevant when you base your argument of the legitimacy of the new government on the fact that Yanukovich abandoned his office. Yanukovich wouldnt have had to flee if parliament was located in a pro-russian area of Ukraine, where there would have been no large demonstrations and no occupation.

The location of Kiev in a pro-western area of the country is crucial in the false perception that there was overwhelming opposition against Yanukovich in the Ukrainian people.
 
Bross said:
Its not irrelevant when you base your argument of the legitimacy of the new government on the fact that Yanukovich abandoned his office. Yanukovich wouldnt have had to flee if parliament was located in a pro-russian area of Ukraine, where there would have been no large demonstrations and no occupation.

The location of Kiev in a pro-western area of the country is crucial in the false perception that there was overwhelming opposition against Yanukovich in the Ukrainian people.
Click to expand...
Russia will annex the west and yanukovich will be in charge... they will have a refferendum to legitamize and it will all quieten down expept for sanctions and future sabre rattling / trade disputes

well thats my guess anyway and all we can do at this stage is speculate
 
Ukrainian Warship Defects To Russia

Ukrainian Navy flagship Hetman Sahaidachny has reportedly refused orders from Kiev and defected to the Russian side, a Russian senator has claimed in an interview with Ivestia Daily.
"Ukraine's Navy flagship the Hetman Sahaidachny has come over to our side today. It has hung out the St Andrew's flag," Sen. Igor Morozov, a member of the committee on the international affairs, told Izvestia. "The crew has fulfilled the order by the chief commander of Ukraine's armed forces Viktor Yanukovych."

The ship recently took part in counter-piracy patrols with EU naval forces and was sailing towards its homeport of Sevastopol, Naval Today reports.

Ousted Ukraine President Yanukovych, under Kremlin protection in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, railed against those who forced him out of power in a press conference on Feb. 28, calling them "radical mobsters" who took over the country.

"I believe that the Ukrainian parliament is not legitimate," he said.

http://www.businessinsider.in/REPORT-Ukrainian-Warship-Defects-To-Russia/articleshow/31261112.cms
 
So we have pulled out of talks at the g8 in Russia and the Paralympic games.Yeah that should teach them.
 
So what's Russia's endgame in all of this? They don't care if the Ukranian government goes pro-EU, they just want the Crimea?
 
Bross said:
Its not irrelevant when you base your argument of the legitimacy of the new government on the fact that Yanukovich abandoned his office. Yanukovich wouldnt have had to flee if parliament was located in a pro-russian area of Ukraine, where there would have been no large demonstrations and no occupation.

The location of Kiev in a pro-western area of the country is crucial in the false perception that there was overwhelming opposition against Yanukovich in the Ukrainian people.
Click to expand...

Its still irrelevant because you can't control where the capital is and are therefore engaging in a dead end thought experiment that can never be proven. He fled because he feared for his safety and that would have probably happened in a number of areas of Ukraine when you consider that $35B have gone missing in his three years in office and members of his own party voted to remove him from office.
 
sun_tzu said:
Russia will annex the west and yanukovich will be in charge... they will have a refferendum to legitamize and it will all quieten down expept for sanctions and future sabre rattling / trade disputes

well thats my guess anyway and all we can do at this stage is speculate
Click to expand...

Not likely. Yanukovich is irrelevant in this story now. Even if he was still around, his own political party has ditched him.
 
Count Orduck said:
So what's Russia's endgame in all of this? They don't care if the Ukranian government goes pro-EU, they just want the Crimea?
Click to expand...

1. Warm water black sea port for the Russian Navy in Sevastopol
2. Expansion of Russian territory to restore Russian pride after the low point of 1991

Unfortunately Putin has miscalculated, as the economic cost of potential EU sanctions will hurt the Russian economy far more than the nationalist pride of retaking a small piece of land.
 
Raoul said:
1. Warm water black sea port for the Russian Navy in Sevastopol
2. Expansion of Russian territory to restore Russian pride after the low point of 1991

Unfortunately Putin has miscalculated, as the economic cost of potential EU sanctions will hurt the Russian economy far more than the nationalist pride of retaking a small piece of land.
Click to expand...

There's no way the EU will do anything of the sort. It's not 1940 anymore; Europe doesn't have the strength to go pissing off Russia.
 
Count Orduck said:
There's no way the EU will do anything of the sort. It's not 1940 anymore; Europe doesn't have the strength to go pissing off Russia.
Click to expand...
The EU's economy is 8.5 times bigger than Russia's. In a conventional war or an economic standoff the EU(and NATO) could crush Russia, and Russia wouldn't have a hope in hell. Europe most certainly does have the strength to piss off Russia, if it ever decides to exert it.
 
Count Orduck said:
There's no way the EU will do anything of the sort. It's not 1940 anymore; Europe doesn't have the strength to go pissing off Russia.
Click to expand...

If it happened, it would obviously be broader than the EU. It would involve the US and broad sanctions to squeeze the Russian economy. Russia relies heavily on the EU to sustain the improved living conditions its citizens have seen in Moscow and St. Pete.
 
Count Orduck said:
There's no way the EU will do anything of the sort. It's not 1940 anymore; Europe doesn't have the strength to go pissing off Russia.
Click to expand...

Why not? The only reason Russia's economy is in good shape is that Europe imports oil and natural gas from Russia. If the EU were to cut off or limit those imports and supplement from elsewhere, Russia's economy would take a major hit.
 
Sir Matt said:
Why not? The only reason Russia's economy is in good shape is that Europe imports oil and natural gas from Russia. If the EU were to cut off or limit those imports and supplement from elsewhere, Russia's economy would take a major hit.
Click to expand...

That's a good point. The Russians are over reliant on the EU for gas and their territory is too vast to create the pipeline infrastructure for them to move oil and gas to other areas to offset a major economic hit.
 
Raoul said:
That's a good point. The Russians are over reliant on the EU for gas and their territory is too vast to create the pipeline infrastructure for them to move oil and gas to other areas to offset a major economic hit.
Click to expand...
Not sure european consumers want gas bills doubling or not having gas though. (As it is the eu who buys russian gas not the other way round)
Given a decision between gas bills staying as they are and the ukranians who want to be part of russia becoming russians or high bills and a risk of a conflict between the eu and russia I am voting with my walet.
 
It's a scary situation. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) the West are toothless to react on this occasion. Russia will continue to take these opportunities to stick it to the West so long as Putin is in power, it would seem he wants nothing more than the Iron Curtain to rise again. This is the country that won the World Cup, shameful.
 
Lu Tze said:
The EU's economy is 8.5 times bigger than Russia's. In a conventional war or an economic standoff the EU(and NATO) could crush Russia, and Russia wouldn't have a hope in hell. Europe most certainly does have the strength to piss off Russia, if it ever decides to exert it.
Click to expand...

Let's not get carried away here.
 
DFreshKing said:
Russia will get what they want and other than some western US led posturing everyone will move on.
Click to expand...

Pretty much, it's happened before in Georgia so it will happen again. The pro-EU Ukrainians will have the last laugh.
 
Andrew~ said:
Let's not get carried away here.
Click to expand...

Despite everyone droning on about how weak the west are the EU and US are still by far the most powerful economic blocs. The way everyone dismisses their capacity for hard and soft power is mental.
 
Lu Tze said:
Despite everyone droning on about how weak the west are the EU and US are still by far the most powerful economic blocs. The way everyone dismisses their capacity for hard and soft power is mental.
Click to expand...

The EU is a conglomerate of different countries with entirely different agendas. Getting all the countries involved on the same page in terms of agreeing sanctions harsh enough that would make Russia reconsider its actions is highly improbable, if not impossible.
 
Everyone who think there should be consequences for Russia for doing this. Why? Whats the point of escalating the situation? Russia has only taken control over parts of Ukraine that were practically theirs already. As long as there is no real threat of further aggression from Russia, for which Ive seen 0 good arguments, "punishing" Russia with sanctions such as stopping gas trade is outright silly and will only hurt everyone in the long run.
 
Lu Tze said:
Despite everyone droning on about how weak the west are the EU and US are still by far the most powerful economic blocs. The way everyone dismisses their capacity for hard and soft power is mental.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying they are weak. It just seems odd to me that you would want any kind of confrontation with the Russians. War destroys, and a war of any kind with the Russians would be especially destructive. There is ample historical precedent to explain why 'hard power' isn't even on the table.
 
Raoul said:
That's a good point. The Russians are over reliant on the EU for gas and their territory is too vast to create the pipeline infrastructure for them to move oil and gas to other areas to offset a major economic hit.
Click to expand...

Putin relied heavily on oil/gas in 2008-09 and was able to avoid the worst of the world economic collapse. He's used the money to further entrench himself. Other important raw material exports are minerals, precious metals, diamonds, etc. Those are largely attainable elsewhere. Cutting off imports would have less overall effect but in more key areas. Technology, medical supplies/equipment, and complex machinery from the West can't be readily replaced by Chinese products.
 
Andrew~ said:
I'm not saying they are weak. It just seems odd to me that you would want any kind of confrontation with the Russians. War destroys, and a war of any kind with the Russians would be especially destructive. There is ample historical precedent to explain why 'hard power' isn't even on the table.
Click to expand...

Nobody wants confrontations with Russia, Russia is confronting the world, and will continue to do so if left entirely unchecked. First it was South Ossetia and Abkhazia, now it's Crimea, next east Ukraine, then who knows? Appeasement is a risk in itself. Obviously war is off the table despite Putin's sabre rattling, but economic sanctions would absolutely, undeniably, indisputably be worse for Russia than the EU/US.
 
Last edited:
It may be a footnote but things like the ISS are heavily reliant on US-Russian cooperation, going after Russia just simply isn't worth it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.