Russia Discussion

[Raoul]

I think the Ukraine situation will in the long term resolve a lot about how relevant Russia is on the global stage. If they manage to galvanize some sort of new version of the Soviet Union out of this, they will indeed be considered a great power. Conversely, if they economically and geopolitically marginalize themselves they will be kicked down a notch or two in the global pecking order. So far, it seems the latter is happening with no signs it will reverse until Putin changes policy.

 

[Nucks]

Russia is a great power that thinks it should be treated like a superpower still, despite not being one. They want a return of their foreign influence that deteriorated since many Eastern European nations broke away and realized they have better options.

I feel like "Super power" doesn't really mean anything. Russia for all intents an purposes in its own backyard does qualify as a "super power". Unless someone (the USA) is willing to go and sit Russia down, that won't change. Over time whatever gains Russia makes here will be accepted as part of the status-quo.

The situation regarding Eastern Europe having "better" options is shaded heavily by this fact. Those better options are only better options so long as Russia doesn't see it as a national interest. Also, as seen in Ukraine it isn't so cut and dry. Many in Ukraine prefer closer ties with Russia. Many prefer closer ties with the EU and the USA. Until that dispute can be reconciled outside of extralegal means (see the Coup) it will continue. The resolution may now be possible through elections, but this resolution would be shallow so long as many in the pro-Russian areas would either not participate or not be able to due to an ongoing conflict.

 

[Nucks]

http://news.yahoo.com/lithuanias-first-floating-lng-terminal-breaks-russian-monopoly-161028725.html

I reckon this will become the norm all over Europe in the next few years.

In the same vein, in the coming years infrastructure will/could exist for Russia to pursue other outlets for the gas and oil.

I think the Ukraine situation will in the long term resolve a lot about how relevant Russia is on the global stage. If they manage to galvanize some sort of new version of the Soviet Union out of this, they will indeed be considered a great power. Conversely, if they economically and geopolitically marginalize themselves they will be kicked down a notch or two in the global pecking order. So far, it seems the latter is happening with no signs it will reverse until Putin changes policy.

The other worry is that if economic sanctions cause a serious depression, the result will not be a populous angry at Putin, it will be a more radical population wiling to follow further adventurism. If the economic downturn in Russia is severe enough, then the response by the US and EU can be seen as completely predictable.

 

[Raoul]

In the same vein, in the coming years infrastructure will/could exist for Russia to pursue other outlets for the gas and oil.

Indeed they could, although they would still be taking a massive step backwards by estranging themselves from the world's two biggest economies (US and EU). Shacking up with the Chinese will not make up for what they lose in Europe alone. Another important factor is that oil prices are likely to remain quite low over the next few years due to the shale glut and there being too much production on the market. This, in addition to current sanctions, will cut the Russian budget by a considerable amount, which in turn could speed up their march towards recession.

The other worry is that if economic sanctions cause a serious depression, the result will not be a populous angry at Putin, it will be a more radical population wiling to follow further adventurism. If the economic downturn in Russia is severe enough, then the response by the US and EU can be seen as completely predictable.

Yeah it could go in one of two directions - entrenchment of nationalism, increased unilateral militarism, and further geopolitical estrangement OR an erosion of Putin's domestic power structure coupled with a surge of democratic sentiment, complete cessation of unilateral military agitations and geopolitical reintegration. One of the two scenarios will likely play out in the coming months or few years.

 

[Sir Matt]

I feel like "Super power" doesn't really mean anything. Russia for all intents an purposes in its own backyard does qualify as a "super power". Unless someone (the USA) is willing to go and sit Russia down, that won't change. Over time whatever gains Russia makes here will be accepted as part of the status-quo.

The situation regarding Eastern Europe having "better" options is shaded heavily by this fact. Those better options are only better options so long as Russia doesn't see it as a national interest. Also, as seen in Ukraine it isn't so cut and dry. Many in Ukraine prefer closer ties with Russia. Many prefer closer ties with the EU and the USA. Until that dispute can be reconciled outside of extralegal means (see the Coup) it will continue. The resolution may now be possible through elections, but this resolution would be shallow so long as many in the pro-Russian areas would either not participate or not be able to due to an ongoing conflict.

Russia complains that NATO is forcing itself on countries in Eastern Europe that should be their puppets without regard to the interest or opinions of the people living there. The Baltic States, Poland, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, etc. all decided it was in their interest to join NATO to escape Russia's influence and seek the protection of the West. Russia's cultural influence throughout Eastern Europe is waning as they become more Westernized, which is part of what makes up a Superpower.

In Ukraine, a sizable majority (67% according to preliminary results) of people who voted in the Parliamentary elections supported a pro-European party. If the pro-Russians don't participate, they cannot expect to have a voice in government. Similar numbers were seen in the Presidential elections there.

 

[antihenry]

Russia complains that NATO is forcing itself on countries in Eastern Europe that should be their puppets without regard to the interest or opinions of the people living there. The Baltic States, Poland, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, etc. all decided it was in their interest to join NATO to escape Russia's influence and seek the protection of the West. Russia's cultural influence throughout Eastern Europe is waning as they become more Westernized, which is part of what makes up a Superpower.

In Ukraine, a sizable majority (67% according to preliminary results) of people who voted in the Parliamentary elections supported a pro-European party. If the pro-Russians don't participate, they cannot expect to have a voice in government. Similar numbers were seen in the Presidential elections there.

NATO was founded in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union fell apart over twenty years ago. Why is this organization still around then and only grows bigger and bigger? Who are they fighting, martians?

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

NATO was founded to in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union fell apart over twenty years ago. Why is this organization still around then and only grows bigger and bigger? Who are they fighting, martians?

Russia had its chance to align with democracies in Europe on a fair and equitable basis, it chose not to and has proven to be a threat to the territory of former soviet countries. NATO is growing because Russia can't give up trying to dominate its neighbours. Russia's actions in Ukraine have proven the wisdom of keeping up a credible defence against Russia and have shown just how aggressive and repressive it's gov't really is.

It was in the true interests of Russia's people to build relations with the EU and I think most Europeans would have welcomed them as we have tried to do with eastern Europe. Instead we are forced into the situation we are now in. Putin's attempt to return to imperial expansionism is going to be a costly, slow burn, disaster for Russia.

 

[naturalized]

NATO was founded in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union fell apart over twenty years ago. Why is this organization still around then and only grows bigger and bigger? Who are they fighting, martians?

Is this a serious post? Did you manage to make it with a straight face?

These guys, maybe?

Seriously? "You provoked this invasion because you want to join NATO. You don't need to join NATO because no one wants to invade you."

 

[Raoul]

NATO was founded in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union fell apart over twenty years ago. Why is this organization still around then and only grows bigger and bigger? Who are they fighting, martians?

Good thing its still around to repel this attempt to reestablish the Soviet Union, ehh ? Pity the Russians have a KGB operative as their leader, otherwise they could probably become a great country driven by democratic ideals, at which point NATO would also become less relevant.

 

[Raoul]

Is this a serious post? Did you manage to make it with a straight face?

These guys, maybe?

Seriously? "You provoked this invasion because you want to join NATO. You don't need to join NATO because no one wants to invade you."

If only NATO would go away, we could proceed with invading all the republics we lost 20 years ago.

 

[maniak]

Russia can't stop being politically agressive because NATO exists and NATO needs to exist to control Russia's imperial ambitions. Real politik, nobody is completely "good" in all of this.

 

[Raoul]

Russia can't stop being politically agressive because NATO exists and NATO needs to exist to control Russia's imperial ambitions. Real politik, nobody is completely "good" in all of this.

Except that Russia is using NATO as a strawman to justify invading neighboring countries, when in fact their aggression has everything to do with the fact that Putin has chosen an authoritarian track where he uses nationalism to further consolidate domestic power. He is lying to the Russian public, controlling what information they receive, as well as lying to world leaders by claiming he's not involved in Ukraine at all.

 

[antihenry]

Good thing its still around to repel this attempt to reestablish the Soviet Union, ehh ? Pity the Russians have a KGB operative as their leader, otherwise they could probably become a great country driven by democratic ideals, at which point NATO would also become less relevant.

The only place they're reestablishing Soviet Union at is your wild imagination.

 

[antihenry]

Except that Russia is using NATO as a strawman to justify invading neighboring countries, when in fact their aggression has everything to do with the fact that Putin has chosen an authoritarian track where he uses nationalism to further consolidate domestic power. He is lying to the Russian public, controlling what information they receive, as well as lying to world leaders by claiming he's not involved in Ukraine at all.

And NATO is using any pretext to invade other countries. You really have a selective memory when it comes to invading other countries. At least, Russia doesn't send troops thousands of miles from their own borders to look for 'weapons of mass destruction'. How's the search going, by the way?

 

[Raoul]

The only place they're reestablishing Soviet Union at is your wild imagination.

Ukraine seems to be forgotten in your logic it seems. Stealing Crimea and attempting to steal two other Ukrainian provinces.

 

[Raoul]

And NATO is using any pretext to invade other countries. You really have a selective memory when it comes to invading other countries. At least

Why don't you support a Russian program that emphasizes democracy, good governance, the rule of law, a free media, and an open civil society ?

 

[maniak]

Except that Russia is using NATO as a strawman to justify invading neighboring countries, when in fact their aggression has everything to do with the fact that Putin has chosen an authoritarian track where he uses nationalism to further consolidate domestic power. He is lying to the Russian public, controlling what information they receive, as well as lying to world leaders by claiming he's not involved in Ukraine at all.

So NATO doesn't exist to put political pressure on Russia? It's the only reason still exists, to mess with Russia. And it should exist.

Of course Russia is worse than NATO countries in terms of internal politics but I said nobody is 100% "good and pure" in real politik. Just imagine Russia creating an international military alliance and Mexico joining as member. The US would probably do a lot worse than the russians are doing to the Ukraine.

Again, not defending Russia or Putin, I dislike him as much as any sane person, but to paint NATO as the last defence against evil Russia is living in fairy tale land. It's an offensive alliance as much as a defensive one.

 

[naturalized]

The only place they're reestablishing Soviet Union at is your wild imagination.

No wait, wait wait. Stop. Just hold on a second. Stop. You're not running away with this one by spamming more replies and trying to bury the obvious non sequitur.

You, first of all, implicitly complained that people criticizing the Russian intervention in Ukraine ignore the fact that Ukraine et al were joining NATO. Presumably therefore at least part of the justification for the Russian intervention is that Ukraine was showing interest in joining NATO and Russia feels threatened, right?

Are you then seriously confused as to why countries would then want to join NATO in the first place? I start to understand why you hold the viewpoint you do on this.

 

[Raoul]

So NATO doesn't exist to put political pressure on Russia? It's the only reason still exists, to mess with Russia. And it should exist.

Of course Russia is worse than NATO countries in terms of internal politics but I said nobody is 100% "good and pure" in real politik. Just imagine Russia creating an international military alliance and Mexico joining as member. The US would probably do a lot worse than the russians are doing to the Ukraine.

Again, not defending Russia or Putin, I dislike him as much as any sane person, but to paint NATO as the last defence against evil Russia is living in fairy tale land. It's an offensive alliance as much as a defensive one.

Its a defensive alliance, so of course it doesn't exist to pressure Russia. It exists to consolidate the norms of the countries that comprise it, so there may be some conflict there since Putin's Russia is authoritarian and coercive to its neighbors and on Europe's doorstep. If Putin were a proper leader who was focused on advancing democratic principles, NATO itself would become far less relevant since Russia's norms would be in line with those in Europe.

 

[maniak]

Its a defensive alliance, so of course it doesn't exist to pressure Russia. It exists to consolidate the norms of the countries that comprise it, so there may be some conflict there since Putin's Russia is authoritarian and coercive to its neighbors and on Europe's doorstep. If Putin were a proper leader who was focused on advancing democratic principles, NATO itself would become far less relevant since Russia's norms would be in line with those in Europe.

If that's how see it, then that's how you see it. It's clearly a game of influences in these countries between Russia and the West and because the West is winning Russia is becoming more aggressive.

 

[Raoul]

If that's how see it, then that's how you see it. It's clearly a game of influences in these countries between Russia and the West and because the West is winning Russia is becoming more aggressive.

And that logic is being driven by Putin's existential fears of losing power. If Putin's Russia were democratic, there would be no need for his paranoia that NATO is undermining him. The fact that he is authoritarian and for the most part a dictator, is what is driving his fear of NATO, as they are blocking him from doing what he wants (imperial adventures in Ukraine and elsewhere) in order to galvanize nationalist support within Russia in order for him to remain in power.

 

[maniak]

And that logic is being driven by Putin's existential fears of losing power. If Putin's Russia were democratic, there would be no need for his paranoia that NATO is undermining him. The fact that he is authoritarian and for the most part a dictator, is what is driving his fear of NATO, as they are blocking him from doing what he wants (imperial adventures in Ukraine and elsewhere) in order to galvanize nationalist support within Russia in order for him to remain in power.

So how is that not putting political pressure on Russia like I said in my first post?

 

[Raoul]

So how is that not putting political pressure on Russia like I said in my first post?

The "pressure" is actually just a rejection of Putin's authoritarian and expansionist logic for the reasons I cited above. Europe and the US have no interest in entertaining dictators on Europe's doorstep, which is why they are pushing back so hard. The problem is entirely Putin's; specifically his lack of vision for where he wants to take Russia, his mistake in anointing himself with endless power and the subsequent decision to steer Russia towards authoritarianism and all of the ripple effects thereof.

 

[maniak]

The "pressure" is actually just a rejection of Putin's authoritarian and expansionist logic for the reasons I cited above. Europe and the US have no interest in entertaining dictators on Europe's doorstep, which is why they are pushing back so hard. The problem is entirely Putin's; specifically his lack of vision for where he wants to take Russia, his mistake in anointing himself with endless power and the subsequent decision to steer Russia towards authoritarianism and all of the ripple effects thereof.

C'mon, you know things aren't just about Putin but at the same time affirmating "western values" in terms of economy mainly. Just look at how the US reacted to antagonistic governments in its doorstep, even when they were democratic. It's not just about Putin, it's about power, both military and economic.

I don't want to sound like an anti-US loon, but we all know NATO is basically the US.

 

[Raoul]

C'mon, you know things aren't just about Putin but at the same time affirmating "western values" in terms of economy mainly. Just look at how the US reacted to antagonistic governments in its doorstep, even when they were democratic. It's not just about Putin, it's about power, both military and economic.

I don't want to sound like an anti-US loon, but we all know NATO is basically the US.

Its about economics, power, and norms - all three are guiding the western approach towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Sir Matt]

And NATO is using any pretext to invade other countries. You really have a selective memory when it comes to invading other countries. At least, Russia doesn't send troops thousands of miles from their own borders to look for 'weapons of mass destruction'. How's the search going, by the way?

Did NATO invade Afghanistan for conquest and annexation? Bosnia? Kosovo? Libya? NATO had good reasons for all of those operations.

Also, NATO didn't invade Iraq. As for WMDs, Iraq had tons of them. It's just that none of them were new and there wasn't an active WMD program the way that Rumsfeld, Cheney, etc. said. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...casualties-of-iraq-chemical-weapons.html?_r=0

 

[maniak]

Its about economics, power, and norms - all three are guiding the western approach towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What countries did Russia invade prior to the Ukraine under Putin?

Because this anti-russian NATO policy is not new, it's been going for decades.

 

[Raoul]

What countries did Russia invade prior to the Ukraine under Putin?

Because this anti-russian NATO policy is not new, it's been going for decades.

Georgia springs to mind in that much like Ukraine, it involved Putin coercively trying to keep a former Soviet Republic under his fist. Should we be surprised that the Baltics and Poland are concerned ? Whats worse is that in Ukraine, he has been blatantly lying to both his own population as well as world leaders by suggesting there are no Russian troops in Ukraine. This makes defending him or Russia's position all the more laughable.

 

[maniak]

Georgia springs to mind in that much like Ukraine, it involved Putin coercively trying to keep a former Soviet Republic under his fist. Should we be surprised that the Baltics and Poland are concerned ? What worse is that in Ukraine, he has been blatantly lying to both his own population as well as world leaders by suggesting there are no Russian troops in Ukraine. This makes defending him or Russia's position all the more laughable.

But I'm not defending him, I even said NATO should exist because of Russia.

I guess we are just disagreeing about the nobility of our side in all of this.

 

[Raoul]

But I'm not defending him, I even said NATO should exist because of Russia.

I guess we are just disagreeing about the nobility of our side in all of this.

All things considered, the side favoring democratic governance, the rule of law, less corruption, a free press, and a thriving civil society is the correct one here. The problem is exclusive to Putin's authoritarian governance and the subsequent mess he's created by needing to agitate in the region in order to remain in power.

 

[maniak]

All things considered, the side favoring democratic governance, the rule of law, less corruption, a free press, and a thriving civil society is the correct one here. The problem is exclusive to Putin's authoritarian governance and the subsequent mess he's created by needing to agitate in the region in order to remain in power.

Sure is, I would never dispute that.

But remember this all started because I said nobody is 100% pure in politics and we (the west) can do our share of "evil" stuff.

 

[Raoul]

Sure is, I would never dispute that.

But remember this all started because I said nobody is 100% pure in politics and we (the west) can do our share of "evil" stuff.

You have to remove yourself from the moral relativist urge to be neutral and pick a side. Ideally the one that represents your world view more.

 

[maniak]

You have to remove yourself from the moral relativist urge to be neutral and pick a side. Ideally the one that represents your world view more.

When you pick a side it doesn't mean you have to follow it blindly and without criticizing its mistakes.

 

[Raoul]

When you pick a side it doesn't mean you have to follow it blindly and without criticizing its mistakes.

That's not what i suggested. It is quite black and white when it comes to Russia though. Unless of course someone is prepared to support an authoritarian strongman over the consensus of the world's prominent democratic states.

 

[maniak]

That's not what i suggested. It is quite black and white when it comes to Russia though. Unless of course someone is prepared to support an authoritarian strongman over the consensus of the world's prominent democratic states.

If by black and white you mean nothing can be disputed regarding how we are treating Ukraine, then I disagree. I think we are doing some historical mistakes in Ukraine just because Russia is on the other side.

For example, allowing elections to be made in the middle of a civil war is pathetic. The way we are making it as if NATO and EU are the same thing it's also dangerous. We should not be accepting any deals between the EU and Ukraine while a war is going on.

End the conflict, have elections where everyone votes, consolidate Ukraine in NATO so they can feel safe, and only then ask them if they want to make such an important commitment as entering the EU. Ukrainians are making a lot of decisions based on fear and we are letting them.

For the military conflict itself, of course we have to defend Ukraine and its territorial integrity.

 

[Sly]

Err wth is going on? Portuguese F-16's just intercepted Russian Bombers in our air space in the Atlantic ocean region. What are the russian up to? It's breaking news all over our news channels. Plenty of activity in the last two days.

 

[DFreshKing]

Perhaps, people just lose interest after a while, when it's something that doesn't concern them personally. It's like any other news, like, for instance, that major earthquake in Haiti few years ago. At first, the whole world is watching and talking about it, everyone wants to help and the news channels are discussing it non stop. Then a week later they mention it here and there, and then a few more weeks pass by and, apart from people directly involved, no one is bothered anymore and another portion of news replaces it in everyone's mind.

What do you know about the realities on the ground? Do you live in Ukraine or anywhere near it? The media coverage in the US and major European countries is very much one sided and, to put it mildly, doesn't fully reflect what's happening there. Somehow, they're oblivious to anything that doesn't fit into "Putin is bad, new Ukraine rulers are good" formula. I'll go even further, imho, if you don't know Russian and Ukrainian history well (which goes back centuries before America was founded), can't speak or read either language (which limits your sources of information), have very little understanding of those people's mentality, culture and way of life, then your views are very limited and you wouldn't be able to figure out what's what. I lived in the US for years and I bet most Americans are totally ignorant as to what Ukraine is, where it's located and what series of events led the country and its citizens to their current predicament.

Raul and Matt are obviously exceptions to that. According to them, America is God's gift to the world and can do no wrong. Anyone that stands in the way of US spreading their goodwill around the world in the form of shock and awe bombings, sponsoring terrorists, sorry, I meant freedom fighters, color revolutions, etc is evil and should be condemned as such.

And I'm not anti-westerner, whatever that means. I just refuse to see the world through the tinted glasses. Putin is wrong about many things, but he's right to defend his country's interests, even if it means standing up to the world's biggest bully and suffer in the process.

Excellent post.

The main reason 'non western haters' don't post is not because they have changed opinion - just that there is little point as contributions in most CE threads leave you banging your head against a right wing wall - very unusual on the internet so you tend to just post in more rational forums.

 

[naturalized]

Excellent post.

The main reason 'non western haters' don't post is not because they have changed opinion - just that there is little point as contributions in most CE threads leave you banging your head against a right wing wall - very unusual on the internet so you tend to just post in more rational forums.

The CE is right wing? Really? I suppose it all depends on where you're stood at a particular time, but I'd argue most would dispute that.

 

[Raoul]

Excellent post.

The main reason 'non western haters' don't post is not because they have changed opinion - just that there is little point as contributions in most CE threads leave you banging your head against a right wing wall - very unusual on the internet so you tend to just post in more rational forums.

We don't have any right wingers in the CE. If you've been here over the years, you'd have noticed they've all been banned.

You'd have to be extremely left wing to consider me right wing, as my views are middle to left leaning here in the states.

 

[Raoul]

Err wth is going on? Portuguese F-16's just intercepted Russian Bombers in our air space in the Atlantic ocean region. What are the russian up to? It's breaking news all over our news channels. Plenty of activity in the last two days.

Wait, don't Russian bombers routinely fly around the coast of Portugal ?