Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
The latest in a long line of wishful thinking that presumes Putin will tolerate a loss in Ukraine, replete with hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded Russians, a decimation to his own economy through sanctions, the cutting off of European markets for Russian energy, and the spectacle of presiding over a once great empire being humiliated by a "non country".
I don't think there can be any negotiations at this point or in the near future. Just look at the people who are in charge in Russia. Negotiating with them would be a complete waste of time.
It looks hard but Ukraine has 2 advantages on their side. They have satellite and drone footage of all field fortifications to find the weak spots and above all, they still profit from low russian morale. In those defensive positions isn't wagner waiting, but untrained, low morale and badly equipped russian conscripts. I'm pretty sure they will run again, if Ukraine breaks through even in one place.
I don't think it would be that easy. A case in point is how UA did poorly for months against meat grinders (with not much equipment in winter) on the Kreminna and Svatove fronts, which were fortified. I have not heard much about the offensive in those areas for awhile.
The success of UA would not depend much on RA's low morale as long as they had numbers. It would heavily depend on whether the UA has enough artillery, tanks, and mortars to make RA troops casualties as high as possible to trim their number. Small arms won't do much at all.
Supply of heavy ammunition will be very important but for me the key factor will be Ukraines ability to tactically maneuver it's troops on the battlefield. The front is 1500km long so there is a lot of room for movement and I think their best chance will be to out maneuver the Russians who we know from the early days of the war is not very good at maneuver warfare.
Outmaneuvering is good for a short-term gain, but as I said, the RA will most likely come back again with their meat grinders and superior artillery fires after the initial shock. So battles like Bakhmut and a few others will still happen somewhere else and it won't change much overall as none of us expects the UA to gain much of territories. It sounds really bad, but inflicting high(er) casualties is the only way to put Putin in a difficult position. Capturing a few hundred miles of land won't change anything for Putin in short and medium term.
Maybe Greece would like to contribute a few.
Escalating etc.
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Greece needs them against Turkey. But USA has a lot of F16s sitting around doing nothing!
Greece and Turkey really are an embarassment to NATO.... Just settle your differences and start acting responsibly and support the right things.
And yes I know about the background etc, it doesn't change the fact that it's an absolutely shameful situation and both countries really should focus on how to resove this instead of using it as a convenient excuse to not act (enough) to support Ukraine.
Turkey at least is providing quite a lot of stuff, but what does Greece actually do at the moment?
Greece is busy bringing down the numbers of malnourished children after the troika fecked their economy. Buying more war planes is probably not the priority right now.
Would love to know the thoughts of the other 6%
You could say the same things about Russia and Ukraine.
Oh, wait! Actually, that's exactly what Germany was saying for many years! Russia is providing us with a lot of stuff, what does Ukraine actually do for us at the moment?
It seems that Germans still love fascist governments... can barely hide it. Erdogan, Putin ... the best friends a German can find.
They apparently will, but training on apparently such takes a minimum of many months (six iirc).
So then what is the end game in your eyes? The way you frame it, honestly, the only end seems to be a Russian victory which frankly can now only be achieved the way no one wants.
My guess would be that the only way out which doesn't involve Nukes is to continue to thoroughly destroy Ukraine with an emphasis now on Kiev before an eventual retreat justified internally by having rendered Ukraine economically destroyed and reliant on the west for massive funding for the next decade thereby weakening Russia's foes to the point where relations will possibly be restored at least for the purposes of buying cheap Russian energy 5 years down the line when "all is forgotten" (as it obviously won't but will be).
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You've really got us figured out. How did you get such deep insights?
The end game is Russia pushed out of Ukraine, a stalemate at the border where Russia for a good while has nothing to do but civilian terror with long range rockets, but at least takes a much smaller toll on the Ukraine than the present situation.
This will be even more evident as terror in those circumstances, at which point even China distances itself from Russia. Then Putin is eventually defenestrated.
It's a long drawn out end game.
Droll and intellectually lazy.
That's exactly the type of end game I think Raoul cannot see happening - too much face lost. I tend to agree. I also do not think that if Putin is gone it will get any better - they are all blood thirsty, mad and suffer from delusions of grandeur based on the fact that they have a huge land mass and more importantly, nukes.
That is the end game of a Russia in denial of face lost. Actually suing for peace while putin remains in power is what I consider unacceptable to Russia due to loss of face.
As for what happens inside Russia when putin dies, I consider that completely unpredictable at this stage. But I would say that the war is only likely to continue if someone who already has a strong stake in the war takes over. Worth remembering there can also plenty of opportunistic reasons for a new Russian leader to end the war in play when the house of cards tumbles.
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The air defense is nearly perfect now thanks to the additional deliveries of Patriot and IRIS-T systems. And don't forget Russia sent 35 cheap drones the night before to locate and overwhelm the air defense systems, so their missiles can avoid them later. I just hope they don't need to shoot those cheap Iranian drones with Patriot missiles and use mostly Gepards for them.
And today is another big victory for Ukraine. Despite Russia turning Bakhmut into an even greater hell in the last couple of days to force and present the city for their parade, Ukraine still holds. Putin's goal was definitely to present this "victory" to his people on this day.
We (the west) certainly have the capability to push Russia out of Ukraine but I don't think we have a will to do it for various reasons. We still have a lot of leaders who are afraid of escalations or humiliating Putin too much. We hope that Russia will crumble economically or politically but it's more of a blind hope than anything. A lot will of course depend on that counteroffensive but I fear that our expectations are too high for it.
Anyone else getting deja vu? Again?
I missed frostbite's anti german rants to be fair.
And after the march, off to Ukraine for a "holiday". Bring your own food and tampons. And rifle. And ammo, come to think of it.
Watching his speech now - he's so paranaoid and full of shit
Didn’t look like a speech of someone pivoting or looking for a way out but some western “leaders” are deluding themselves up to this day. Only total Ukrainian victory can end this terror once and for all.