SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[F-Red]

UK Data:

17th: 598 deaths / 20k
18th: 529 / 19k cases

If by 2nd December, let's say the R rate is between 0.8-1.0 - with a guess of 15k cases a day, and the reopening sprint to the shops that will last until Xmas Eve...I really don't see how they will then be able to allow a normal Xmas?

Either this lockdown gets extended by another 10-14 days, or, we go back into lockdown from early Jan?

We're not in lockdown, I hate to keep saying it but we're just on restrictions of movement. We'll just have a restriction of numbers gathering/household mixing I feel in early December, schools closing for the Christmas period will give some slack in the R rate for other things to open up. Mid-Late Jan I expect the last restrictions put in place, before they make a call on the success of any vaccine rollout in the vulnerable groups.

 

[Wolverine]

I'm not following this that closely anymore so i could be lazy and enquire with you good people, any progress or signs of UK cases starting to level off at all?

Think it varies locally
Not having a good time of it in Leicester. As of today, medics in the city’s three main hospitals are treating 260 people who have tested positive for COVID.
At its peak in April we treated 204 at one point. Have had high daily case confirmation numbers recently but drop in new case numbers for 2nd day in a row.

I don't believe we will get it down to safe enough levels for restrictions to be lifted circa Christmas holidays but they'll be lifted regardless I think, socio-political pressure will be too great not to at that stage.

 

[Wibble]

Wow! Proper lockdown.

They have learned lessons from Victoria's outbreak and want to stamp it out fast.

Edit: despite large scale testing no new cases overnight. I'm sure there might be more than the 23 identified linked cases yet but this is very good news. Hopefully they can kill it dad with this extreme 6 day lockdown followed by a gradual reversal of restrictions. Yet again State Premiers have taken bold but necessary decisions.

 

[golden_blunder]

Dublin zoo may have to close due to Covid

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1118/1178867-dublin-zoo/

€50 a day to feed a lion? Throw the anti-maskers in for them to chew on. “That lions no worse than a normal cat”

 

[berbatrick]

 

[Wibble]

11 million tests in 5 days? Wow

 

[entropy]

 

[RedDevil@84]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/politics/new-york-covid-religious-rules/index.html



While incidences of Covid spike across the country, the Supreme Court is once again considering arguments from houses of worship that say pandemic-related restrictions are violating their religious freedom rights.
The two latest cases arise out of New York as a Roman Catholic Diocese in Brooklyn and a group of Orthodox synagogues are challenging Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo's executive order limiting in-person attendance at houses of worship to 10 or 25 people in geographic "red" and "orange" zones.

 

[entropy]

 

[Brwned]

Thought this was interesting.

At Hong Kong’s deserted airport, cleaning crews constantly spray baggage trolleys, elevator buttons and check-in counters with antimicrobial solutions. In New York City, workers continually disinfect surfaces on buses and subways. In London, many pubs spent lots of money on intensive surface cleaning to reopen after lockdown — before closing again in November.

All over the world, workers are soaping, wiping and fumigating surfaces with an urgent sense of purpose: to fight the coronavirus. But scientists increasingly say that there is little to no evidence that contaminated surfaces can spread the virus. In crowded indoor spaces like airports, they say, the virus that is exhaled by infected people and that lingers in the air is a much greater threat.

Hand washing with soap and water for 20 seconds — or sanitizer in the absence of soap — is still encouraged to stop the virus’s spread. But scrubbing surfaces does little to mitigate the virus threat indoors, experts say, and health officials are being urged to focus instead on improving ventilation and filtration of indoor air.

“In my opinion, a lot of time, energy and money is being wasted on surface disinfection and, more importantly, diverting attention and resources away from preventing airborne transmission,” said Dr. Kevin P. Fennelly, a respiratory infection specialist with the United States National Institutes of Health.

The Hong Kong Airport Authority has used a phone-booth-like “full-body disinfection channel” to spritz airport staff members in quarantine areas. The booth — which the airport says is the first in the world and is being used in trials only on its staff — is part of an all-out effort to make the facility a “safe environment for all users.”

Such displays can be comforting to the public because they seem to show that local officials are taking the fight to Covid-19. But Shelly Miller, an expert on aerosols at the University of Colorado Boulder, said that the booth made no practical sense from an infection-control standpoint.

Viruses are emitted through activities that spray respiratory droplets — talking, breathing, yelling, coughing, singing and sneezing. And disinfecting sprays are often made from toxic chemicals that can significantly affect indoor air quality and human health, Dr. Miller said.

“I can’t understand why anyone would think that disinfecting a whole person would reduce the risk of transmitting virus,” she said

A range of respiratory ailments, including the common cold and influenza, are caused by germs that can spread from contaminated surfaces. So when the coronavirus outbreak emerged last winter in the Chinese mainland, it seemed logical to assume that these so-called fomites were a primary means for the pathogen to spread.

Studies soon found that the virus seemed to survive on some surfaces, including plastic and steel, for up to three days. (Studies later showed that much of this is likely to be dead fragments of the virus that are not infectious.) The World Health Organization also emphasized surface transmission as a risk, and said that airborne spread was a concern only when health care workers were engaged in certain medical procedures that produce aerosols.

But scientific evidence was growing that the virus could stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhaled — particularly in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation.

In July, an essay in The Lancet medical journal argued that some scientists had exaggerated the risk of coronavirus infection from surfaces without considering evidence from studies of its closely related cousins, including SARS-CoV, the driver of the 2002-03 SARS epidemic.

“This is extremely strong evidence that at least for the original SARS virus, fomite transmission was very minor at most,” the essay’s author, the microbiologist Emanuel Goldman of Rutgers University, said in an email. “There is no reason to expect that the close relative SARS-CoV-2 would behave significantly different in this kind of experiment,” he added, referring to the new coronavirus.

A few days after Dr. Goldman’s Lancet essay appeared, more than 200 scientists called on the W.H.O. to acknowledge that the coronavirus could spread by air in any indoor setting. Bowing to enormous public pressure over the issue, the agency acknowledged that indoor aerosol transmission could lead to outbreaks in poorly ventilated indoor places like restaurants, nightclubs, offices and places of worship.

By October, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which had maintained since May that surfaces are “not the primary way the virus spreads,” was saying that transmission of infectious respiratory droplets was the “principal mode” through which it does.

But by then, paranoia about touching anything from handrails to grocery bags had taken off. And the instinct to scrub surfaces as a Covid precaution — “hygiene theater,” as The Atlantic magazine called it — was already deeply ingrained.

 

[Wibble]

Thought this was interesting.

I think surface transmission is probably relatively rare but they seem to think South Australia's outbreak was due to surface transmission. No idea what the evidence for that is (if any).

Edit: wasn't contact infection - someone lied to the contact tracers

 

[Tony Babangida]

I think surface transmission is probably relatively rare but they seem to think South Australia's outbreak was due to surface transmission. No idea what the evidence for that is (if any).

They're also talking about a new less virulent strain in SA. Seems way too early to be saying stuff like that without any decent evidence.

 

[Arruda]

I have a friend on the frontline in Singapore -- they are decked out in a full kit -- from shoe covers to N95s to face shields, aprons etc every time they see a potential patient.

If they have to pee then they have to remove everything and replace it all. The Health Minister told them that they will not cut any corners to protect the healthcare workers. Lessons learnt from the previous epidemic, SARs.

So she could potentially change a full kit four times per shift -- and the supervisors will not blink an eyelid.

I have still yet to understand what all the body cover is for. I could understand it in the beginning, but with all we've learned the past 6 months, us still using the same PPE we were using in March seems like an insane waste of plastic/money. It's also draining and tiring to work in those things, so it's not like there aren't any negative trade-offs to it. Not being able to pee means you can't hydrate properly either.

 

[sglowrider]

I have still yet to understand what all the body cover is for. I could understand it in the beginning, but with all we've learned the past 6 months, us still using the same PPE we were using in March seems like an insane waste of plastic/money. It's also draining and tiring to work in those things, so it's not like there aren't any negative trade-offs to it.

Its hot too. Traps all the moisture and then when you take it off, its soaked on the inside.

 

[0le]

Just applied for a job to be a covid-19 lab assistant. Got no biology background but 4 years lab experience from engineering based work...so fingers crossed?

 

[McGrathsipan]

Dublin zoo may have to close due to Covid

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1118/1178867-dublin-zoo/

€50 a day to feed a lion? Throw the anti-maskers in for them to chew on. “That lions no worse than a normal cat”

It's sad to hear the Zoo is in trouble but feck me they didnt have much cash reserve after all the years of existence.
Government will have to bail them

 

[golden_blunder]

It's sad to hear the Zoo is in trouble but feck me they didnt have much cash reserve after all the years of existence.
Government will have to bail them

They’ve burned through it all already. 500k a month costs

 

[Dancfc]

Surely Zoo's could have stayed open? The outside parts if nothing else.

Not quite up there with the insanity of banning golf and tennis but a blanket shut down of Zoo's is surely overkill.

 

[Dan_F]

Surely Zoo's could have stayed open? The outside parts if nothing else.

Not quite up there with the insanity of banning golf and tennis but a blanket shut down of Zoo's is surely overkill.

I went to one at the end of October and like you say, the indoor parts were closed, but there was no issues anywhere else. I guess it’s having to draw that line somewhere though.

 

[Brwned]

I think surface transmission is probably relatively rare but they seem to think South Australia's outbreak was due to surface transmission. No idea what the evidence for that is (if any).

Yeah it seems likely that it plays a role but the question there was just are we going a bit overboard now, given our approach seems anchored to the initial response to perceived surface threat even though the evidence has evolved quite a bit. Does seem likely some of it has more to do with signalling than the science at this point. I was in a hotel a couple of weeks ago where they had full on hazmat suits for people cleaning rooms after guests left. It did feel both strangely heavy handed and reassuring. It's a good thing that's one part of the economy that is growing but it's probably a fair question whether investing that money into better ventilation might have generated better protection, it just would have been less visible.

Is it just a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since schools have been open?

What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.

 

[lynchie]

Thought this was interesting.

There's a huge amount of security theatre going on - for some reason sports teams in particular seem to be keen on running through sprays of disinfectant, and there's been people wandering around spraying corner flags, and it's all probably useless.

This was a particularly strong example:

 

[acnumber9]

Yeah it seems likely that it plays a role but the question there was just are we going a bit overboard now, given our approach seems anchored to the initial response to perceived surface threat even though the evidence has evolved quite a bit. Does seem likely some of it has more to do with signalling than the science at this point. I was in a hotel a couple of weeks ago where they had full on hazmat suits for people cleaning rooms after guests left. It did feel both strangely heavy handed and reassuring. It's a good thing that's one part of the economy that is growing but it's probably a fair question whether investing that money into better ventilation might have generated better protection, it just would have been less visible.



What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.

Well Northern Ireland’s r rate has gone from 0.7 to 1 in the last two weeks. Only one thing has changed in that time so we can hazard a good guess at the impact on the r rate. We’ve had to shut everything else to keep them going and cases are still too high.

 

[Dumbstar]

There's a huge amount of security theatre going on - for some reason sports teams in particular seem to be keen on running through sprays of disinfectant, and there's been people wandering around spraying corner flags, and it's all probably useless.

This was a particularly strong example:

I still can't believe the thread discussing pros and cons of wearing a mask back in March/April on this very forum. A mask(!), to prevent viral infections. Cough, cough, breathe, breathe? Coupled with my own experiences, including my GP and other medical friends, 2020 has been a real eye opener for sure.

 

[lynchie]

What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.

The ONS infection survey still shows primary school children have the lowest level of infection, although it did initially rise following corresponding rises in the rest of the population. There does seem to be a fundamental difference between young children and adolescents/young adults.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I have still yet to understand what all the body cover is for. I could understand it in the beginning, but with all we've learned the past 6 months, us still using the same PPE we were using in March seems like an insane waste of plastic/money. It's also draining and tiring to work in those things, so it's not like there aren't any negative trade-offs to it. Not being able to pee means you can't hydrate properly either.

The environmental impact makes me uncomfortable too. So much landfill refuse.

 

[golden_blunder]

Surely Zoo's could have stayed open? The outside parts if nothing else.

Not quite up there with the insanity of banning golf and tennis but a blanket shut down of Zoo's is surely overkill.

Anytime I’ve been to Dublin zoo it’s been packed with people

 

[Brwned]

Well Northern Ireland’s r rate has gone from 0.7 to 1 in the last two weeks. Only one thing has changed in that time so we can hazard a good guess at the impact on the r rate. We’ve had to shut everything else to keep them going and cases are still too high.

Aye, but the question was never "do schools have any impact?" but "does leaving schools open cause a massive explosion in cases / since nothing else has worked, isn't it obvious the only way to bring cases down is to close schools?". Cases are higher than we'd like, but not exploding any more, and I'd say it's fair to characterise the curve as essentially flat for the entirety of November. Like Ireland, a few weeks further along with schools open. Which would suggest that schools opening didn't cause the explosion, it was a factor among others, and things can be kept under control while schools are open. That's still a challenging task but the implication was that was not at all possible. And that you'd be an idiot for thinking it was. You pointed to the numbers as telling their own story, and now the numbers are very different despite schools re-opening, presumably they are now telling a different story?

There's a huge amount of security theatre going on - for some reason sports teams in particular seem to be keen on running through sprays of disinfectant, and there's been people wandering around spraying corner flags, and it's all probably useless.

This was a particularly strong example:

That's pretty wild. Presumably at some point something like this will backfire and we'll recalibrate to re-focus on what really works!

 

[tombombadil]

Update on measure coming in at midnight

To recap, from midnight tonight the following restrictions apply in South Australia:

• All South Australians will have to stay put in their house for six days. Wherever they are at midnight tonight, that’s where they have to remain.
• All schools will be shut except for children of essential workers and vulnerable children;
• Childcare will be open only to essential workers, and shut to everyone else;
• People will not be permitted to leave their home to exercise.
• Takeaway food will be shut;
• Universities will be closed;
• Pubs, cafe’s, food courts and other food venues will be closed;
• Elective surgery will be closed, except for urgent operations;
• Cancer treatment will be closed;
• Real estate inspections will be closed;
• All outdoor sport and physical activity will not be permitted.
• Regional travel is not approved. Holiday houses are closed. Schoolies, which police commissioner Grant Stevens said yesterday was still on, is now off;
• Aged care and residential disability care is in lockdown;
• Factories other than for food and medical products are closed, apart from essential maintenance;
• The construction industry is closed;
• Weddings and funerals will be banned for six days;
• Face masks are required when outside the home, although it’s just encouraged not mandatory as many in SA do not yet have masks;
• Families with joint custody arrangements have been asked to find an arrangement that works for the next six days, without moving between houses.

Remaining open:

• Supermarkets will remain open for one visit from one person per household per day;
• Critical infrastructure — power, telecommunications — will remain open;
• Medical services including mental health services will remain open;
• Public transport will remain open;
• Airport and freight services will remain open;
• Petrol stations will remain open;
• Banks and financial institutions will remain open;
• Post offices will remain open;
• Mining, smelting, and large factories will be allowed to continue to operate at a level required to ensure continuity of service delivery or to prevent damage, but not for anything else;
• Veterinary surgeons will remain open;
• Agriculture workers will be able to move around to ensure the safety, welfare and processing of animals and animal products, like dairy

It is good to see that some countries have learned their lessons well and can react to situations properly now

 

[tombombadil]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/politics/new-york-covid-religious-rules/index.html



While incidences of Covid spike across the country, the Supreme Court is once again considering arguments from houses of worship that say pandemic-related restrictions are violating their religious freedom rights.
The two latest cases arise out of New York as a Roman Catholic Diocese in Brooklyn and a group of Orthodox synagogues are challenging Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo's executive order limiting in-person attendance at houses of worship to 10 or 25 people in geographic "red" and "orange" zones.

As if the dozens of cases around the world with super spreader events, a majority of them due to places of worship, aren't warning enough, these idiots are going out of their way behaving like comic book villains.

Are they that desperate for tithes?

Religion truly is a poison.

 

[tombombadil]

Thought this was interesting.

Wonder where this is from?

I thought droplet based transmission via aerosols, is already well known since march? It's the reason why 1 meter distancing was revised to 1.5 meter distancing in europe, right?

 

[tombombadil]

I have still yet to understand what all the body cover is for. I could understand it in the beginning, but with all we've learned the past 6 months, us still using the same PPE we were using in March seems like an insane waste of plastic/money. It's also draining and tiring to work in those things, so it's not like there aren't any negative trade-offs to it. Not being able to pee means you can't hydrate properly either.

To be honest, I personally think, if you are not a frontliner and just an everyday joe, just a simple reusable mask every time you leave your house is good enough. Don't waste perfectly good PPE and save them for actual doctors, nurses and other frontliners.

 

[tombombadil]

Yeah it seems likely that it plays a role but the question there was just are we going a bit overboard now, given our approach seems anchored to the initial response to perceived surface threat even though the evidence has evolved quite a bit. Does seem likely some of it has more to do with signalling than the science at this point. I was in a hotel a couple of weeks ago where they had full on hazmat suits for people cleaning rooms after guests left. It did feel both strangely heavy handed and reassuring. It's a good thing that's one part of the economy that is growing but it's probably a fair question whether investing that money into better ventilation might have generated better protection, it just would have been less visible.



What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.

You have a point. I think the main issue is, it is easier to put employees in PPE than it is to re-engineer a hotel's ventilation and air conditioning system.

 

[tombombadil]

Aye, but the question was never "do schools have any impact?" but "does leaving schools open cause a massive explosion in cases / since nothing else has worked, isn't it obvious the only way to bring cases down is to close schools?". Cases are higher than we'd like, but not exploding any more, and I'd say it's fair to characterise the curve as essentially flat for the entirety of November. Like Ireland, a few weeks further along with schools open. Which would suggest that schools opening didn't cause the explosion, it was a factor among others, and things can be kept under control while schools are open. That's still a challenging task but the implication was that was not at all possible. And that you'd be an idiot for thinking it was. You pointed to the numbers as telling their own story, and now the numbers are very different despite schools re-opening, presumably they are now telling a different story?



That's pretty wild. Presumably at some point something like this will backfire and we'll recalibrate to re-focus on what really works!

I think the question is not so much about closing schools as it is about what steps can we take that would prevent schools being a super spreader event while allowing them to remain open? Testing and social distancing coupled with masking seem to be potential ways to enable that. Not sure what steps are being taken in the UK right now in schools and universities.

 

[RedDevil@84]

As if the dozens of cases around the world with super spreader events, a majority of them due to places of worship, aren't warning enough, these idiots are going out of their way behaving like comic book villains.

Are they that desperate for tithes?

Religion truly is a poison.

I am not sure if there is any lost revenue there.
People can easily stay at home and worship. It is not like religious folks are all going to abandon God/church if they are not nudged every week by the place of worship.

 

[lynchie]

You have a point. I think the main issue is, it is easier to put employees in PPE than it is to re-engineer a hotel's ventilation and air conditioning system.

This is definitely part of it. When you look at the cost and effort involved in upgrading ventilation systems for higher fresh air rates, or to add in things like HEPA filters, in the midst of a massive economic slump, there was obviously reluctance to jump in. There was fairly widespread (optimistic) feeling back in Spring that this might all be burned out by the summer, so why go for the big capital cost, when a few bottles of disinfectant and some disposable masks were the key weapons in the battle? I think that's slowly beginning to change, especially as some will be thinking about being more resilient to the next novel virus.

 

[tombombadil]

I am not sure if there is any lost revenue there.
People can easily stay at home and worship. It is not like religious folks are all going to abandon God/church if they are not nudged every week by the place of worship.

Judging from the amount of problems and incidents around the world, it seems they really are desperate to resume worship.

It seems tithes/donations from worship have nosedived and these commercial enterprises are desperate to earn an extra buck to pay for their private jet installments.

 

[tombombadil]

This is definitely part of it. When you look at the cost and effort involved in upgrading ventilation systems for higher fresh air rates, or to add in things like HEPA filters, in the midst of a massive economic slump, there was obviously reluctance to jump in. There was fairly widespread (optimistic) feeling back in Spring that this might all be burned out by the summer, so why go for the big capital cost, when a few bottles of disinfectant and some disposable masks were the key weapons in the battle? I think that's slowly beginning to change, especially as some will be thinking about being more resilient to the next novel virus.

I agree. That seems to be what happened. However, with the possibility of a vaccine on the horizon and an end to this nightmare in sight, I'm pretty sure most establishments will do the bare minimum to survive until the economy reopens.

 

[acnumber9]

Aye, but the question was never "do schools have any impact?" but "does leaving schools open cause a massive explosion in cases / since nothing else has worked, isn't it obvious the only way to bring cases down is to close schools?". Cases are higher than we'd like, but not exploding any more, and I'd say it's fair to characterise the curve as essentially flat for the entirety of November. Like Ireland, a few weeks further along with schools open. Which would suggest that schools opening didn't cause the explosion, it was a factor among others, and things can be kept under control while schools are open. That's still a challenging task but the implication was that was not at all possible. And that you'd be an idiot for thinking it was. You pointed to the numbers as telling their own story, and now the numbers are very different despite schools re-opening, presumably they are now telling a different story?



That's pretty wild. Presumably at some point something like this will backfire and we'll recalibrate to re-focus on what really works!

But we’ve shut everything else and cases are still too high. We’ve already seen the reduction in cases plateau in Northern Ireland. They were on a steady decline again. I know you’re desperate to be right and all but 1+1 isn’t equalling 2 here. Cases were manageable until the middle of September. Cases aren’t manageable now. While it’s still so widespread it was always going to continue to spread. The closure of schools was far too short for it to show a steep decrease.

It would be fair to categorise November as flat if you ignore the fact that the peak was when schools closed and the decrease stopped when schools re-opened.

Increasing the r rate by almost a third isn’t just any impact. It’s a fecking huge impact. Roughly three times that of hospitality closures.

To be honest, I’ve been quite patient through this debate. But you’re wrong, the numbers show you’re wrong and you ignore them. I’m done with you and your attempts at oneupmanship. The only way one of us can be proved right is if schools close and it has minimal impact or they stay open with everything else closed and cases drop to where we where in the summer. Neither is going to happen.

 

[cyberman]

Well lost all sense of taste this morning, went for a test which fecking sucks. Was asked to be part of some survey where they wanted 2 extra, less intrusive tests to see if they were a viable alternative.

 

[Brwned]

But we’ve shut everything else and cases are still too high. We’ve already seen the reduction in cases plateau in Northern Ireland. They were on a steady decline again. I know you’re desperate to be right and all but 1+1 isn’t equalling 2 here. Cases were manageable until the middle of September. Cases aren’t manageable now. While it’s still so widespread it was always going to continue to spread. The closure of schools was far too short for it to show a steep decrease.

It would be fair to categorise November as flat if you ignore the fact that the peak was when schools closed and the decrease stopped when schools re-opened.

Increasing the r rate by almost a third isn’t just any impact. It’s a fecking huge impact. Roughly three times that of hospitality closures.

To be honest, I’ve been quite patient through this debate. But you’re wrong, the numbers show you’re wrong and you ignore them. I’m done with you and your attempts at oneupmanship. The only way one of us can be proved right is if schools close and it has minimal impact or they stay open with everything else closed and cases drop to where we where in the summer. Neither is going to happen.

We have a different understanding of the objective, is all. Steady cases at this level are not preferable but tolerable. The restrictions came in when cases were growing exponentially, that's what is intolerable over a prolonged period of time. They also want to bring cases down to the lowest possible levels so when restrictions are lifted, the exponential growth starts from a level that we can keep on top of, and that when we get sight of the growth, it hasn't already reached a level where hospitals are worried. We aren't pursuing a strategy of eradication so if we were to keep cases consistently steady, at this lower level, it would be acceptable to the majority. Which is why they've taken the decision to re-open the economy slowly, while re-opening schools. They are looking at the same numbers you are, just with more visibility. They don't like those numbers but they are manageable.

If you agree that we can now keep cases at a steady level while schools are open, and that by default leaving them open will not lead to another explosion of cases, then you weren't arguing against a point I was making, or Pogue was making, or anyone else you called an idiot. You just had a different perspective on what is an acceptable trade-off. Different to individuals on here, and different to the government. That's all fair enough but there's a big gap between having a different opinion, and thinking people are idiots for not sharing your opinion. Your view on the importance of schools is different from other people's, so you don't see any reason to give it special preferences. Many people do. Here's one example of a country following the opposite strategy, and finding that closing the schools comes with all kinds of downsides while the positive impact on transmission reduction is barely noticeable.

Yet today, while we all want in-classroom instruction, the practical question is whether to operate schools that don’t have optimal ventilation and other protections. The United States has answered by shuttering many schools and turning to remote learning even as many businesses have stayed open or reopened. Much of Europe pursued the opposite route, closing pubs and restaurants but doing everything possible to keep schools operating — and the evidence suggests that Europe has the smarter approach.

In both Europe and the United States, schools have not been linked to substantial transmission, and teachers and family members have not been shown to be at extra risk (this is more clear of elementary schools than of high schools). Meanwhile, the evidence has mounted of the human cost of school closures.

“Children learn best when physically present in the classroom,” notes the American Academy of Pediatrics. “But children get much more than academics at school. They also learn social and emotional skills at school, get healthy meals and exercise, mental health support and other services that cannot be easily replicated online.”

One child in eight in America lives with a parent with an addiction — a reflection of America’s other pandemic. I’ve seen kids living in chaotic homes, and for them the school building is a refuge and a lifeline.

America’s education system already transmits advantage and disadvantage from one generation to the next: Rich kids attend rich schools that propel them forward, and low-income children attend struggling schools that hold them back.

School closures magnify these inequities, as many private schools remain open and affluent parents are better able to help kids adjust to remote learning. At the same time, low-income children fall even further behind.

“Students are struggling,” Austin Beutner, superintendent of the Los Angeles Unified School District, where more than four-fifths of students live below the poverty line, told me. “And if you’re not becoming proficient in reading in first, second, third grade, you may face a lifetime of consequences.”

Research from Argentina and Belgium on school strikes indicates that missing school inflicts long-term damage on students (boys seem particularly affected, with higher dropout rates and lower incomes as adults). McKinsey & Company has estimated that in this pandemic, school closures may lead to one million additional high school dropouts.

Dropouts live shorter lives, so while the virus kills, so do school closures. One study this month estimated that closures of primary schools in the United States will cause many more years of life lost, because of increasing numbers of dropouts, than could be saved even if schools did spread the virus freely.

Across the country from Taylor’s classroom in Florida, Lauren Berg is an elementary school principal in McMinnville, Ore. Berg said some students flourish with distance learning, but three or four students in each class struggle to attend regularly.

The school tries everything: It gives out Chromebooks, hot spots, headphones, even personal timers with meeting times pre-scheduled with alarms. Teachers drop off food and school supplies, or sit in driveways to try to get pupils to log in to the system. “Even with all of this,” Berg said, “we are still missing some students.”

Let’s follow Europe: Close bars, and try harder to keep schools open.

The negative social impacts are potentially very severe. That's the judgment of the NI scientific advisers too, which is why when they weigh up the impact on the R rate vs. the wider impact, they think it's worth keeping schools open. They can manage without doing that. It's not a controversial opinion, nor denying the data, to say that is the case. It is just a different perspective.