Scottish / Irish Independance

barros said:
Is not going to happen, Spain will oppose Scotland and NI to be part of the EU, so independence from Scotland would send the Scott's to a bad economic situation, no EU and no UK.
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Spain oppose talks with Scotland while they're still part of the United Kingdom, nothing to do with independence.
 
endless_wheelies said:
Spain oppose talks with Scotland while they're still part of the United Kingdom, nothing to do with independence.
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https://next.ft.com/content/33de1fbc-3dfb-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

"Mr Rajoy holds a veto over Scotland’s fate because EU rules require all governments to approve the accession of a new member. Contending with a powerful independence movement in Catalonia, Madrid has been a longstanding opponent of the creation of breakaway states in Europe. "
 
barros said:
Spain already said they will oppose Scotland to be part of the EU, they have independence calls from Catalunya and Galicia..... not going to happen.
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No, they've said they'll oppose talking to Scotland whilst Scotland is part of the UK. They've said they won't oppose Scotland joining the EU if it legally breaks away from the UK with the UK's permission. That's the key point, because it's not setting a precedent as Catalunia can never legally break away from Spain.
 
barros said:
I'm in a grocery store waiting for my wife no time to search for anything better but I watched something on the Portuguese channel and some Spanish "expert" said they will veto Scotland, I would love to see Catalonia and Galicia independent as well.
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I know Spain have come out and publicly said that they would look to block any move which undermines Scotland's current ties to the United Kingdom, but I don't see any way at all that they would have the grounds to block a legitimately independent Scotland from joining the EU, I know what the theory behind the notion they would do this is but in reality it would be political suicide in its transparency and counter-productive to what they were aiming to do with it. They would be much better served simply trying to clearly distinguish the differences between the Scotland and Catalonia situations and how one has no bearing whatsoever on the other, which seems to be the route they are going down.
 
Will the UK grant a second referendum given the first one was said to be once in a generation?

The main argument about the EU referendum is that leavers didn't know which form of leave they voted for. Bearing this in mind would the second Scottish independence referendum better serve the people of Scotland if the full terms of the separation were negotiated before the vote?

What is the current deficit spending by the Scottish devolved govt and what would a post leave the UK one look like?
 
endless_wheelies said:
I know Spain have come out and publicly said that they would look to block any move which undermines Scotland's current ties to the United Kingdom, but I don't see any way at all that they would have the grounds to block a legitimately independent Scotland from joining the EU, I know what the theory behind the notion they would do this is but in reality it would be political suicide in its transparency and counter-productive to what they were aiming to do with it. They would be much better served simply trying to clearly distinguish the differences between the Scotland and Catalonia situations and how one has no bearing whatsoever on the other, which seems to be the route they are going down.
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I think they're referring to anything unconstitutional or "special case" scenarios. A referendum in Catalonia or Euskadi, although in theory possible, is well-nigh impossible legally as it stands. I think Spain has yet to recognise Kosovo as an indpenendent state for this reason but has not vetoed any of the other Eastern European states such as Slovenia.
 
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Don't Kill Bill said:
Will the UK grant a second referendum given the first one was said to be once in a generation?

The main argument about the EU referendum is that leavers didn't know which form of leave they voted for. Bearing this in mind would the second Scottish independence referendum better serve the people of Scotland if the full terms of the separation were negotiated before the vote?

What is the current deficit spending by the Scottish devolved govt and what would a post leave the UK one look like?
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I dont think a second referendum rerunning the same question is likely but possibly a vote on the eventual terms when that happens - especially if it takes such a period of time that we were to have a pro remain party / coalition of parties in power following a general election.

A second scottish devolution vote would be interesting - particularly if it was to leave the UK but to remain in the EU as the obvious one that crops up is currency and would scotland be able to stay in a currency union for trading with the uk or would they be better off in euros to trade with europe?
 
Gove is Scottish, but I imagine he's a die-hard unionist. Not sure his Westminster would actually agree to another referendum.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
Will the UK grant a second referendum given the first one was said to be once in a generation?
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I don't see us having any choice if the polls shift radically towards independence. Previously it was pretty even and leaning towards stay, so it wasn't difficult to push it into the weeds if we needed to. If the polls start showing a 60-70% independence preference and especially if the SNP sweep the board in the next general, we'll basically have to give them another referendum or the Scottish parliament could just claim it was a gross distortion of democracy and stop cooperating with Westminster.
 
barros said:
Is not going to happen, Spain will oppose Scotland and NI to be part of the EU, so independence from Scotland would send the Scott's to a bad economic situation, no EU and no UK.
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endless_wheelies said:
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My list of EU countries that were once part of another country in recent times:

Estonia / Latvia / Lithuania - Part of the USSR (1991 approx)

Croatia / Slovenia - Part of Yugoslavia (1991 approx)

Czech Republic / Slovakia - Part of Czechoslovakia (1995 approx)

Add to that that the United Kingdom has always been a union between several countries, and that Scotland has it's own parliament and even it's own football team... I really doubt Scotland would really be kept out of the EU. There would be a backlash against Spain.

Still, it really will set a precedent for Catalonia.
 
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UK needs to negate scotland as a bargaining chip from the negotiations with the EU. As long as the UK negotiates a deal before the scottish exit, it would be fine for England.

Once a deal with the EU is complete, it does not matter if scotland stays in UK or not. The only problem then would be to prevent scotland from joining the schengen area. If scotland were to leave the UK and then join the schengen area then that would be a real shitstorm for the CTA.
 
AshfordLad said:
UK needs to negate scotland as a bargaining chip from the negotiations with the EU. As long as the UK negotiates a deal before the scottish exit, it would be fine for England.

Once a deal with the EU is complete, it does not matter if scotland stays in UK or not. The only problem then would be to prevent scotland from joining the schengen area. If scotland were to leave the UK and then join the schengen area then that would be a real shitstorm for the CTA.
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Scotland would 100% keep open borders with the UK and Ireland.

But even if the EU went mental and forced Scotland to erect a border.. it would be annoying and expensive, but not impossible.
 
rcoobc said:
Scotland would 100% keep open borders with the UK and Ireland.

But even if the EU went mental and forced Scotland to erect a border.. it would be annoying and expensive, but not impossible.
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Most likely it wouldnt be EU erecting a border. It would be the UK wanting the border, if scotland joins (or is forced to join) schengen then they will have to be kept out of the CTA (GB and Ireland).

I guess it would depend upon how crazy SNP are in the end.
 
The potential for a united Ireland is on the front page of the Financial Times
http://www.thejournal.ie/financial-times-united-ireland-3362830-Apr2017/?utm_source=facebook_short



THE PROSPECT OF a united Ireland was given front page prominence in the Financial Times this morning as EU leaders prepare to meet in Brussels tomorrow.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny has previously stated that the EU’s guidelines for Brexit should include a provision that would allow Northern Ireland automatically rejoin the EU should reunification with the Republic ever happen.

The Financial Times is reporting that this is set to be accepted by European leaders (subscription required).

The formal reference to Irish reunification is not expected to be one of the guidelines for Brexit negotiations, but would be part of accompanying documents for the summit.

Comparisons have been made, including by Kenny himself, between the reunification of Germany and the potential reunification of Ireland.

In the case of the latter, East Germany did not apply to join the EU when it was absorbed into West Germany.

Several treaties have greatly enhanced European integration in the years since that however, and Ireland has also joined the Euro.

Ireland is expected to ask the 27 European Union leaders to endorse the idea when they meet in Brussels tomorrow to adopt guidelines for Brexit negotiations. The UK is not part of tomorrow’s meeting.

“We expect Ireland to ask on Saturday for a statement to be added to the minutes of the European Council, which states that in case of a unification of the island in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement, the united Ireland would be a member of the EU,” an EU Council source told AFP.

We do not expect a change of the guidelines themselves, but only a statement to the minutes.

Brussels insisted that, if added on Saturday, a so-called “Kenny text” would not change the situation of Ireland or Northern Ireland.

“It would merely state the obvious, that a united Ireland would continue being a member of the EU,” the EU Council source said.

“The EU does of course not take a stance on the possibility of a united Ireland. Should this question arise, it would be for the peoples of Ireland and Northern Ireland to decide in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement,” the source added.

The other key divorce issues the EU is set to discuss is Britain’s exit bill, estimated by EU sources at €60 billion, and the fate of three million EU citizens living in Britain, plus a million Britons living in the EU.
 
It doesn't really mean anything as to the actual prospect of the reunification of Ireland, just a framework for a united Ireland joining the EU if it did happen.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It doesn't really mean anything as to the actual prospect of the reunification of Ireland, just a framework for a united Ireland joining the EU if it did happen.
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If there is a border poll at any stage it will be the key campaigning point.
 
Eyepopper said:
If there is a border poll at any stage it will be the key campaigning point.
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It would be great for the UK if Ireland took Northern Ireland off us. NI haemorrhages money and is politically volatile. We could stop funding their massive public sector workforce and bring all of the British trade dependent businesses over here.

I don't see it happening anytime soon though.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It doesn't really mean anything as to the actual prospect of the reunification of Ireland, just a framework for a united Ireland joining the EU if it did happen.
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Brussels insisted that, if added on Saturday, a so-called “Kenny text” would not change the situation of Ireland or Northern Ireland.

“It would merely state the obvious, that a united Ireland would continue being a member of the EU,” the EU Council source said.

“The EU does of course not take a stance on the possibility of a united Ireland. Should this question arise, it would be for the peoples of Ireland and Northern Ireland to decide in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement,” the source added.

which is explained quite clearly in that article.
 
Economically in the long run a United Ireland makes sense, it will be a huge expense of the UKs back but this will be a long drawn out process with many obstacles. The one elephant in the room is the shifting demographics soon there will be a nationalist majority in the North, of course this doesn't mean a majority would vote in favour for unification but the numbers will be there.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It would be great for the UK if Ireland took Northern Ireland off us. NI haemorrhages money and is politically volatile. We could stop funding their massive public sector workforce and bring all of the British trade dependent businesses over here.

I don't see it happening anytime soon though.
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Probably not for a few decades at least.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It would be great for the UK if Ireland took Northern Ireland off us. NI haemorrhages money and is politically volatile. We could stop funding their massive public sector workforce and bring all of the British trade dependent businesses over here.

I don't see it happening anytime soon though.
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Unfortunately that will be the case, Northern Ireland has so much potential, but the political will is not there to make it a success, the fact that the second biggest party cannot say the words Northern Ireland means that it is doomed to fail, they have no desire to see Northern Ireland succeed and ultimately are happy for the people who vote for them to live in one of the most deprived parts in the UK, one only needs to look at how deprived an area like West Belfast is, they have no will to further their voters as long as they remain part of the UK, they'd rather put nationalism ahead of health, education & employment. Although simlar can be said of the DUP too.
 
Reds-of-Ulster said:
Unfortunately that will be the case, Northern Ireland has so much potential, but the political will is not there to make it a success, the fact that the second biggest party cannot say the words Northern Ireland means that it is doomed to fail, they have no desire to see Northern Ireland succeed and ultimately are happy for the people who vote for them to live in one of the most deprived parts in the UK, one only needs to look at how deprived an area like West Belfast is, they have no will to further their voters as long as they remain part of the UK, they'd rather put nationalism ahead of health, education & employment. Although simlar can be said of the DUP too.
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Is there not a degree of it just being too small to ever be economically viable?

Its a messy one anyway.
I remember working for a guy (an architect) who was working for waterways ireland, a cross border body.
He said it was a nightmare,
there were just too many people involved who's agenda was to disrupt and make it as unproductive as possible
with the hope of it being binned and separate bodies set up either side of the border.
The tiniest decisions would just take months and months of back and forth to be decided on, it was more or less shelved at the point i was working for him.
He'd write a letter or memo every other month, meetings were basically cancelled as they were pointless. They were a million miles away from any tangible work being done.
I imagine if unification ever happened that would be an ongoing problem for a significant amount of time

One of a thousand headaches that need to be overcome before the island is united in anything but name (which still seems quite a ways off too)
 
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