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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Muppet. We're in a situation atm where we voted to play Monopoly but haven't actually unboxed the game yet to witness the family arguments and fallout. All we've had so far is the vote to play Monopoly and the initial argument about why the feck anyone would want to play that cursed game.
 
When did Vote Leave or one of its leading figures state that Article 50 would be activated immediately?

Cameron was pushing the idea, true, yet given his government's total lack of preparedness we can but conclude it to have been a complete fib/tactic.
 
The doomsday scenario painted by the stay campaign was certainly deliberately inaccurate. I don´t think that there is any reason to hold on to this vision and there is not reason to justify these tactics of scaremongering. That doesn´t mean, that there aren't very real negative consequences. There was a small bump the days after the vote, but the real change happens slowly and not with one big bang. It is easy to ignore these things so. The idea that nothing changed is imo quite shallow and ignores all the indicators that point towards a negative development. The investment climate for GB certainly took a hit and the consequences will be that well-paid full time jobs might be created somewhere else.
Despite the slow pace of change, at the moment there is also the very real prospect, that GB stays in the single market, which obviously means that very little would change anyway.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
When did Vote Leave or one of its leading figures state that Article 50 would be activated immediately?

Cameron was pushing the idea, true, yet given his government's total lack of preparedness we can but conclude it to have been a complete fib/tactic.
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It was pretty obvious. The leavers portrayed the EU as some sort of oppressive regime that they couldn't wait to leave. Arguments about the imminent arrival of hordes of Turkish people to the EU, the settin up of an evil eu stormtrooper army and the promise of 350m a week to a financially starved NHS suggested that they couldn't wait to activate article 50 and get on with it.

Even now leavers like Farage, Boris and Davis are growing impatient about May's reluctance to activate article 50. However no one dares pushing the remainer for action cause brexit means brexit whatever that means
 
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devilish said:
It was pretty obvious. The leavers portrayed the EU as some sort of oppressive regime that they couldn't wait to leave. Arguments about the imminent arrival of hordes of Turkish people to the EU and the 350m a week to a financially starved NHS were made which suggested that they couldn't wait to activate article 50 and get on with it.

Even now leavers like Farage, Boris and Davis are growing impatient about May's reluctance to activate article 50
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Or if summed up in far fewer words...it was not not actually the stance of Leave to activate Article 50 immediately. You are arguing a point solely on the projection of your own views and interpretation.
 
devilish said:
It was pretty obvious. The leavers portrayed the EU as some sort of oppressive regime that they couldn't wait to leave. Arguments about the imminent arrival of hordes of Turkish people to the EU, the settin up of an evil eu stormtrooper army and the promise of 350m a week to a financially starved NHS suggested that they couldn't wait to activate article 50 and get on with it.

Even now leavers like Farage, Boris and Davis are growing impatient about May's reluctance to activate article 50. However no one dares pushing the remainer for action cause brexit means brexit whatever that means
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So you though, from the campaign that it would be triggered immediately rather than anyone having said that.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Or if summed up in far fewer words...it was not not actually the stance of Leave to activate Article 50 immediately. You are arguing a point solely on the projection of your own views and interpretation.
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God knows what the leavers had in mind. According from abstracts of Craig Oliver's book, Boris committed himself to Cameron's cause few minutes before declaring to Brexit. Also Gove confessed that the economy would go tits up if the UK doesn't remain in the single market. At one point Boris even promised a second referendum after he had brought a better deal from the EU while Farage committed himself for a second referendum if the result is close. Then the argument dived to fire and brimstone, with allegations that the EU is set to give visas to an entire horde of Turkish people (now Boris seem keen of having Turkey in the EU), the imminent setting up of a EU stormtrooper army which the UK need to bail out quickly from and the financial injection of a 350m a week to the NHS, which the NHS desperately needs like yesterday. That gave the impression that the UK cant wait to leave the EU and if given power they will turn words into action immediately. Now all we're hearing is Brexit means Brexit with the occasional brainfart from Davis/Boris who is quickly rebuked by May.

Everything seem so amateur made and so a spare of the moment thing. The only people who genuinely seem to want Brexit are the other EU members who are urging the UK to start the dances by activating article 50. If there's such a great world outside the EU why would the UK be so afraid to press the button on the nazi EU regime and get over it?
 
Michael Gove stated quite explicitly that Article 50 would not be activated in the immediate aftermath of a vote, actually during the campaign.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Michael Gove stated quite explicitly that Article 50 would not be activated in the immediate aftermath of a vote, actually during the campaign.
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Michael Gove also said alot of nice words about Boris during the entire campaign only to backstab him soon afterwards. Does anyone actually believe Michael Gove anymore?
 
I wouldn't mind the delay if it was clear it was being done to formulate some exact details regarding Brexit or technicalities here and there as the new PM and cabinet settles in.

The problem though is that the delay is due to the fact that the government just do not know what Brexit is going to be, and perhaps more importantly don't know what they want Brexit to be. Their rough vision seems to be that they'd like to remain in the single market without free movement...but we've pretty much been told that this isn't happening and that we'll have to suck it up.

As a result of that, the eventual consequences will likely not be partaken in the best interests of Britain, but will be taken through a series of maneuvers and plots within the Tory party to keep them settled and happy as a whole. Like the referendum, this will be settled through the ideological divisions of a party.
 
Anyone who thought article 50 was going to be triggered immediately really just got caught up in all the fan fare.

It was obvious and said by many here that it would be a long and protracted process. The campaign and the process are two very different things.
 
Smores said:
Anyone who thought article 50 was going to be triggered immediately really just got caught up in all the fan fare.

It was obvious and said by many here that it would be a long and protracted process. The campaign and the process are two very different things.
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The Brexiters said that the EU would cave in to the UK demands else the British wont drink Italian wine and buy German cars anymore. They made the deal look quite easy and straightforward.
 
Irrespective of when Article 50 was expected to be triggered, I struggle to see what we're waiting for if we have a concrete plan as to how we want Brexit to go. The fact is we don't though, and that should concern everyone, be it a Leave or Remain supporter.
 
Cheesy said:
Irrespective of when Article 50 was expected to be triggered, I struggle to see what we're waiting for if we have a concrete plan as to how we want Brexit to go. The fact is we don't though, and that should concern everyone, be it a Leave or Remain supporter.
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I agree. It seems to be that even the Leavers didn't believed/wanted Brexit to happen. Possibly they wanted Cameron weakened and a panicked EU to cave in to their demands.
 
Cheesy said:
Irrespective of when Article 50 was expected to be triggered, I struggle to see what we're waiting for if we have a concrete plan as to how we want Brexit to go. The fact is we don't though, and that should concern everyone, be it a Leave or Remain supporter.
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Well we had to form a new goverment, i doubt such a concrete plan is close to being formed yet. Its far too complicated an issue to rush.

The brexit campaign was just a preamble to convince voters there was no actual plan.
 
So it appears Brexit had no timeframe planned either. Is it guess the year?

Or the government now hope the old people who voted for Brexit will have kicked the bucket by the time they activate Article 50, the lesser intelligent ones think they already have left the EU (a poll would be interesting as to how many Brexiteers think the UK have left) and everyone else would have got so fed up with it, they couldn't care any more and it will all just fizzle out.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
So it appears Brexit had no timeframe planned either. Is it guess the year?

Or the government now hope the old people who voted for Brexit will have kicked the bucket by the time they activate Article 50, the lesser intelligent ones think they already have left the EU (a poll would be interesting as to how many Brexiteers think the UK have left) and everyone else would have got so fed up with it, they couldn't care any more and it will all just fizzle out.
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I think its more the case of waiting for the EU to get weaker to launch its final blow
 
Cheesy said:
Irrespective of when Article 50 was expected to be triggered, I struggle to see what we're waiting for if we have a concrete plan as to how we want Brexit to go. The fact is we don't though, and that should concern everyone, be it a Leave or Remain supporter.
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I don't think the governments inside the EU have a concrete plan for what they want from the UK post brexit and they don't agree when we should trigger it either.

If your opponent wants something, frustrate him, delay him, even if you think it doesn't matter and you couldn't care less. He wants it and that enough of a reason to deny him. If the EU bureaucrats want us to trigger article 50 straight away then delay it until it becomes necessary.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I don't think the governments inside the EU have a concrete plan for what they want from the UK post brexit and they don't agree when we should trigger it either.

If your opponent wants something, frustrate him, delay him, even if you think it doesn't matter and you couldn't care less. He wants it and that enough of a reason to deny him. If the EU bureaucrats want us to trigger article 50 straight away then delay it until it becomes necessary.
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Sarkozy plans to offer Britain a new treaty according to this :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...new-eu-treaty-and-a-chance-to-say-no-to-brex/

I think the idea that we have no plan at all after three months to work on it is rather daft, yet we probably need at least three strategies worked out before we even enter talks. An opening offer (which involves the greatest continuance of existing EU cooperation/regs), our counter proposal in the even that flat out refuse, and a hard Brexit option.

So i expect that we shall see some movement in the opening weeks of 2017.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Sarkozy plans to offer Britain a new treaty according to this :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...new-eu-treaty-and-a-chance-to-say-no-to-brex/

I think the idea that we have no plan at all after three months to work on it is rather daft, yet we probably need at least three strategies worked out before we even enter talks. An opening offer (which involves the greatest continuance of existing EU cooperation/regs), our counter proposal in the even that flat out refuse, and a hard Brexit option.

So i expect that we shall see some movement in the opening weeks of 2017.
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Knowing Sarkozy, he has absolutely nothing. Juppé on the other hand probably has a clear position and a clear plan.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I don't think the governments inside the EU have a concrete plan for what they want from the UK post brexit and they don't agree when we should trigger it either.

If your opponent wants something, frustrate him, delay him, even if you think it doesn't matter and you couldn't care less. He wants it and that enough of a reason to deny him. If the EU bureaucrats want us to trigger article 50 straight away then delay it until it becomes necessary.
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I'm not sure they care that much - they presumably want whatever is the least change for them. We've been explicitly told that we're not getting in the single market without free movement. Playing this extended game of chicken isn't going to change anything.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
So it appears Brexit had no timeframe planned either. Is it guess the year?

Or the government now hope the old people who voted for Brexit will have kicked the bucket by the time they activate Article 50, the lesser intelligent ones think they already have left the EU (a poll would be interesting as to how many Brexiteers think the UK have left) and everyone else would have got so fed up with it, they couldn't care any more and it will all just fizzle out.
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Yeah be nice to know this as well.
 
The amount of wishful thinking in this thread!

David Cameron didn't allow any contingency planning for a Leave outcome, so the new government had to start from scratch. The Leavers didn't have a detailed plan with all i's dotted and t's crossed. It's a massively complicated issue.

In general terms they probably have a good idea where they want to go, but there's no detail on the map. And there are warlike tribes between them and their destination whose behaviour is unpredictable. The Eurocrats will be lying in ambush somewhere along the way. Armed with curare tipped darts and pieces of paper. So it makes sense to proceed cautiously.
 
Brexit first series:
We have no idea what we're going to do
We have no idea why we're doing it
We have no idea when we're going to do it
We had no idea so many people could be so gullible

All leading players have left after the first series except one who has taken a new role.

Tune into the next episode of Brexit(The Farce) starring Davis and Boris, release date to be confirmed sometime this century
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I don't think the governments inside the EU have a concrete plan for what they want from the UK post brexit and they don't agree when we should trigger it either.

If your opponent wants something, frustrate him, delay him, even if you think it doesn't matter and you couldn't care less. He wants it and that enough of a reason to deny him. If the EU bureaucrats want us to trigger article 50 straight away then delay it until it becomes necessary.
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Then be prepared to be absolutely reemed during negotiations with this frustrated foe.
 
Good job the likes of Owen Paterson and IDS have been obsessed with Europe for years and thus can now enact their genius-level strategy for exiting:

 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I don't think the governments inside the EU have a concrete plan for what they want from the UK post brexit and they don't agree when we should trigger it either.

If your opponent wants something, frustrate him, delay him, even if you think it doesn't matter and you couldn't care less. He wants it and that enough of a reason to deny him. If the EU bureaucrats want us to trigger article 50 straight away then delay it until it becomes necessary.
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I think the plan is pretty clear and has been formulated multiple times: if you want to stay in the single market, you have to accept freedom of movement as well. There is absolutely no reason for anyone in the EU to do anything, because the status quo doesn't hurt and I bet a lot of people do find the mess the UK gouvernment is in quite amusing.
 
fcbforever said:
I think the plan is pretty clear and has been formulated multiple times: if you want to stay in the single market, you have to accept freedom of movement as well. There is absolutely no reason for anyone in the EU to do anything, because the status quo doesn't hurt and I bet a lot of people do find the mess the UK gouvernment is in quite amusing.
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From the comments being made by the various factions about when they want article 50 triggered, I don't think it is clear at all.

I don't think the UK govt can accept free movement in the negotiation even if they wanted to the referendum pretty much ruled that out.

If the UK gives up on tariff free access to the single market, what tariffs would the EU like to place on UK goods and services given reciprocal measures will apply?
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I don't think the governments inside the EU have a concrete plan for what they want from the UK post brexit and they don't agree when we should trigger it either.

If your opponent wants something, frustrate him, delay him, even if you think it doesn't matter and you couldn't care less. He wants it and that enough of a reason to deny him. If the EU bureaucrats want us to trigger article 50 straight away then delay it until it becomes necessary.
Click to expand...

The eu want the uk within the eu so this status quo benefits them. I wonder how the tories can face the electorate if brexit means nothing but huff and puff though
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
From the comments being made by the various factions about when they want article 50 triggered, I don't think it is clear at all.

I don't think the UK govt can accept free movement in the negotiation even if they wanted to the referendum pretty much ruled that out.

If the UK gives up on tariff free access to the single market, what tariffs would the EU like to place on UK goods and services given reciprocal measures will apply?
Click to expand...

Once the uk activates article 50 then the eu very existence will rely on the uk ending much worse off than it is now. All sort of tariffs and obstacles will be applied both at eu and wto level
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Sarkozy plans to offer Britain a new treaty according to this :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...new-eu-treaty-and-a-chance-to-say-no-to-brex/

I think the idea that we have no plan at all after three months to work on it is rather daft, yet we probably need at least three strategies worked out before we even enter talks. An opening offer (which involves the greatest continuance of existing EU cooperation/regs), our counter proposal in the even that flat out refuse, and a hard Brexit option.

So i expect that we shall see some movement in the opening weeks of 2017.
Click to expand...

You might be correct but I think that is a mistake. The starting position should be an acceptance that we can't keep free access given we can't accept free movement. Lets negotiate a trade deal on its own terms like we do with everyone else on the planet. Otherwise we are going to run into problems with Brexit voters about UK sovereignty.

Personally I don't care about it that much but Brexiteers seemed pretty hot on controlling our own borders so accepting free movement I think is politically impossible.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
You might be correct but I think that is a mistake. The starting position should be an acceptance that we can't keep free access given we can't accept free movement. Lets negotiate a trade deal on its own terms like we do with everyone else on the planet. Otherwise we are going to run into problems with Brexit voters about UK sovereignty.

Personally I don't care about it that much but Brexiteers seemed pretty hot on controlling our own borders so accepting free movement I think is politically impossible.
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I doubt that the eu will even consider trade deal talks up to until article 50 is activated
 
devilish said:
Once the uk activates article 50 then the eu very existence will rely on the uk ending much worse off than it is now. All sort of tariffs and obstacles will be applied both at eu and wto level
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On your first post,

We have time yet before triggering becomes necessary we should take as much time as we have available.

On this second post.

Let's find out what the EU proposition is and whether given the damage it is going to cause industries inside the member states whether those states will agree the position.

I can imagine the EU bureaucrats want all sorts of tariffs but they don't control that much in the end the power is with the members states.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
On your first post,

We have time yet before triggering becomes necessary we should take as much time as we have available.

On this second post.

Let's find out what the EU proposition is and whether given the damage it is going to cause industries inside the member states whether those states will agree the position.

I can imagine the EU bureaucrats want all sorts of tariffs but they don't control that much in the end the power is with the members states.
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A) The Brexiteers are become impatient
B) the eu is not the one who wants a change in the deal. The uk is. Brussels is waiting for the uk to come up with their ideas. However no negotiations will start prior the activation of article 50
 
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