North Korea

Call me a pessimist, but this just seems like classic NK.

Promise to do something in return for aid, support, or some concession (in this instance give up nukes in return for halting the war games they kick up a fuss about every year; in the past food), and then proceed to ignore the agreement entirely and do their own thing.
 
At the end of the meeting they signed a document establishing new relations between their countries and committing to the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

However the agreement is not binding, and the promise of denuclearisation was a rehash of the Panmunjom Declaration signed by Mr Kim and South Korean president Moon Jae-in in April.

The four agreements stated in the document are:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

At a press conference after the meeting, Mr Trump said that the late North Korea detainee Otto Warmbier "did not die in vain" because his death led to the US-North Korea talks.

Mr Trump told media that he had spoken to Mr Kim on the phone before.
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VeevaVee said:
Not that long ago it was made out that WWIII was almost starting. Fear mongering on a grand scale. Wouldn't surprise me if they influenced the media in this way so it looks like an incredible achievement down the line.
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It is an incredible achievement to be fair even if its only the first steps.

It doesn't quite make sense, its like Batman vs Superman where they stop fighting because their mums are both called Martha. I feel like Trump and Kim have bonded over something random.
 
Kentonio said:
Between 1994 and 1998, North Korea went though a famine that killed anywhere between 240,000 to 3.5 million people. Out of a population of 22 million. This is not a family dynasty that gives a single feck about the effect of sanctions on their people, because their people have spent generations now fully understanding that even when they’re starving, any sign of rebellion will mean even more extreme misery and death for not only themselves but their whole families.

On the broader point of which, the media seem to be skipping over quite easily the fact that NK is run in a very similar way to Nazi Germany, and that Trump will be shaking hands with a guy who has personally ordered the torture and murder of countless people.
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Of course he does care about the sanctions, if not the people they affect. As much as NK is a controlled state there are still some underground movements, particularly outside of Pyongyang. When things are as precarious as they are within the country he will not want to stir the people up too much and will keep a close eye on whether the levels of dissent are rising.

China is the key partner in all of this. They're not America's best friends at the moment so we haven't seen much of them in this whole meeting charade but they pull the strings in NK. An improvement in North Korean fortunes and a reduced threat of the US kicking off on their border is a huge win-win for them. The last thing they want is a collapsed NK state with 20 odd million refugees knocking on their door and the US military shifting its bases a few hundred miles closer.
 
11101 said:
Of course he does care about the sanctions, if not the people they affect. As much as NK is a controlled state there are still some underground movements, particularly outside of Pyongyang. When things are as precarious as they are within the country he will not want to stir the people up too much and will keep a close eye on whether the levels of dissent are rising.
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I said in my later post that of course he’ll care. Just not that you can assume he has no choice. He’s willing to accept unthinkably bad consequence for his people to get what he wants.
 
Posted in the Trump thread. The whole thing was a disaster if you're not named Trump and Kim.
Adisa said:
Has anyone gone through the actual details of the agreement? Trump has sold Japan and SK out.
NK have given vague statements but no definite concessions.
  • North Korea has not revealed the extent of their nuclear capabilities.
  • North Korea has not given a timeframe for denuclearisation. It could be next month or next twenty years.
  • North Korea has not given any commitment to allow the IAEA or any oversight on its nuclear disarmament. There is literarily no way to verify anything.
  • How can you negotiate when you have no idea what you're basing negotiations on?
Look at the statement released by South Korean officials have made. Sceptical is the word.
Trump has ended military exercises and got nothing in return.
Kim has played this brilliantly. He knows Trump is only interested in the show and not any substance.
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I'm not sure we're able to deliver a verdict on it yet so I'm lukewarm and I think declaring it a 'disaster' is definitely premature. On the one hand we know that NK has made and violated numerous agreements in the past and remains an untrustworthy interlocutor. It also seems to be the case that Trump has agreed to ending joint military exercises in return for no testing, which is something I believe NK had announced prior to the meeting and which didn't at that point require an end to the exercises (I might be wrong in the latter). On the other hand the US and NK have now broken the ice at the highest level and however dubious it might remain this does open up a possible avenue to a lasting peace. This latter has to be worth something, even if it involves pandering somewhat to an odious regime and pampering it's disgusting leader.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I'm not sure we're able to deliver a verdict on it yet so I'm lukewarm and I think declaring it a 'disaster' is definitely premature. On the one hand we know that NK has made and violated numerous agreements in the past and remains an untrustworthy interlocutor. It also seems to be the case that Trump has agreed to ending joint military exercises in return for no testing, which is something I believe NK had announced prior to the meeting and which didn't at that point require an end to the exercises (I might be wrong in the latter). On the other hand the US and NK have now broken the ice at the highest level and however dubious it might remain this does open up a possible avenue to a lasting peace. This latter has to be worth something, even if it involves pandering somewhat to an odious regime and pampering it's disgusting leader.
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Disaster is an exaggeration. There will be no lasting peace until the peninsular is denuclearised. NK hasn't given any proper commitments. A pledge without a timeframe isn't worth the paper it's put on. Especially when it's commitments they have made before. This isn't the first time both countries have spoken.
Why do you think leaders wit until there is total agreement before doing a photo op?
Just have a read through the statements SK and Japan have made.
The only party that has given proper concessions has been America and for what?
My judgement on this has nothing to do with Trump personally.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Call me a pessimist, but this just seems like classic NK.

Promise to do something in return for aid, support, or some concession (in this instance give up nukes in return for halting the war games they kick up a fuss about every year; in the past food), and then proceed to ignore the agreement entirely and do their own thing.
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I'd largely agree. Kim will know the consequences if he gives up his nukes after seeing what happened to Gaddafi.

This is really just a big public show where both sides can come away with their egos stroked by the media. Trump will argue he's cooled down tensions and helped edge us towards peace as a result. Kim will present himself as being increasingly diplomatic and able to work with the US etc. In private he'll do nothing and in years to come we'll be back at this point.
 
Adisa said:
Disaster is an exaggeration. There will be no lasting peace until the peninsular is denuclearised. NK hasn't given any proper commitments. A pledge without a timeframe isn't worth the paper it's put on. Especially when it's commitments they have made before. This isn't the first time both countries have spoken.
Why do you think leaders wit until there is total agreement before doing a photo op?
Just have a read through the statements SK and Japan have made.
The only party that has given proper concessions has been America and for what?
My judgement on this has nothing to do with Trump personally.
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Not so sure about this bit, mutually assured destruction and all that. Wouldn't it be much easier to start a conventional war than a nuclear one?

Peace needs each Korea to recognise the sovereignty of the other, drop any territorial or other claims they may have, and start to normalise trade, travel and relations in general. It will mean the US accepting North Korea has nukes just as it accepts other nations have them as well, but that's just a matter of time anyway.
 
Adisa said:
Disaster is an exaggeration. There will be no lasting peace until the peninsular is denuclearised. NK hasn't given any proper commitments. A pledge without a timeframe isn't worth the paper it's put on. Especially when it's commitments they have made before. This isn't the first time both countries have spoken.
Why do you think leaders wit until there is total agreement before doing a photo op?
Just have a read through the statements SK and Japan have made.
The only party that has given proper concessions has been America and for what?
My judgement on this has nothing to do with Trump personally.
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In itself it's obviously not some majestic diplomatic victory or anything and I'll likely fully ascribe to your view in a few days/weeks. For now it costs me nothing to sit in a skepticism laced with a modicum of hope.
 
711 said:
Not so sure about this bit, mutually assured destruction and all that. Wouldn't it be much easier to start a conventional war than a nuclear one?

Peace needs each Korea to recognise the sovereignty of the other, drop any territorial or other claims they may have, and start to normalise trade, travel and relations in general. It will mean the US accepting North Korea has nukes just as it accepts other nations have them as well, but that's just a matter of time anyway.
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South Korea and Japan(especially) will also develop nuclear weapons. The point remains. NK did not bring anything new to the table but got a huge fecking carrot in return.
 
Adisa said:
South Korea and Japan(especially) will also develop nuclear weapons. The point remains. NK did not bring anything new to the table but got a huge fecking carrot in return.
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Probably, to the nuclear bit, but as for the big meeting, I don't think a right lot has happened at all really, for either side. Truth is we don't know of course, maybe I should have said not a right lot has happened, yet.
 
Marcelinho87 said:
Kim has played Trump for a fool hasn't he?
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It seems like it. Trump got nothing out of this beyond the media spectacle of meeting with Kim and a hollow verbal commitment from Kim about denuclearizing, which the NKs have repeatedly retreated from in the past.
 
Can someone let me know when North Korea actually do something that has any impact on the world?
 


China has played a blinder here. I'm still interested to know what US have got in return for all of this.
 
Marcelinho87 said:
Kim has played Trump for a fool hasn't he?
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Well people seem very desperate to try and paint as such. Not surprising people can't look past partisanship views though.

This whole event was clearly never about securing firm details, its about moving the dialog forward and thats been achieved.
 
711 said:
Probably, to the nuclear bit, but as for the big meeting, I don't think a right lot has happened at all really, for either side. Truth is we don't know of course, maybe I should have said not a right lot has happened, yet.
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Not a lot has happened, that's true. But if you are SK, the Foal Eagle exercises are a huge fecking deal.
 
So the meeting is over an Kim still has nukes?

What a loser Donald Trump is; Meets with the poorest dictator this earth has to offer and still comes away with nothing.
 
"Working towards" complete denuclearisation.

Like my son is "working towards" tidying his room, rather than tidying it.

So fecking weak.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I mean, as obvious and ego stroking as that video clearly is I kind of agree with its message. It's a million to one shot Zaphod...
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They should have gotten Morgan Freeman to do the voiceover, the whole peace process would be signed by now.
 
Whether the US has lost some strategic initiative or whatever is far less important than the fact that a very deadly war (for people of both Koreas) is now less likely.
 
berbatrick said:
Whether the US has lost some strategic initiative or whatever is far less important than the fact that a very deadly war (for people of both Koreas) is now less likely.
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Certainly is the case for now, but the question is whether there is just a temporary high-point or whether current moves will result in any actual lasting peace. I'm sceptical as to whether that's the case or if this is just a PR show for two world leaders to ease some pressure on them. If NK don't actually have any plans on denuclearising then I imagine tensions between them and SK will remain, even if they're not as pronounced as they were becoming.
 
berbatrick said:
Whether the US has lost some strategic initiative or whatever is far less important than the fact that a very deadly war (for people of both Koreas) is now less likely.
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How do you come to the conclusion that war is less likely now? How do you know Trump isn't already typing his "post summit flight home insult"?

I wish I had your faith in people who have repeatedly shown themselves to be emotionally unstable.
 
Abizzz said:
How do you come to the conclusion that war is less likely now? How do you know Trump isn't already typing his "post summit flight home insult"?

I wish I had your faith in people who have repeatedly shown themselves to be emotionally unstable.
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I think it's less likely than it was 2 days ago (had the meeting been a fiasco), and much less likely than it was in November (before Moon Jae In's offer was accepted by NK). So I think both Kim and Trump but most of all Moon deserve credit for pulling back from a frightening situation (when NK was testing every few weeks and there were repeated US border in response).

Also:
Today might appear to some to be a case of life imitating art.

North Korea detonates a nuclear bomb, followed swiftly by a meeting between its leader and the US president and the establishment of formal relations.

Although this sounds worryingly close to real life, it is actually the plot of a four-part North Korean movie released in 2012.

The four-part film, The Country I Saw (really a sequel to the 1980s film of that name), follows a Japanese professor who works out the true nature of North Korea’s nuclear programme is to force the US into direct talks. The climax shows a dramatic nuclear explosion, forcing the US to send Bill Clinton to meet Kim Jong-il, the late father of the current leader.

Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies wrote in a blog post that it showed North Korea “has concluded that its survival as a functioning state in the international system is entirely a product of its military capabilities”.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...b0a90d612a5e55#block-5b1f0df2e4b0a90d612a5e55
 
I just wonder what Trump sees as the US’ benefit. He obviously couldnt care less about Korea since he does not own it.

Is it simply a way to stroke his cock? Or to lay a claim for the nobel price?

Being a business man, surely he has an angle.
 
berbatrick said:
I think it's less likely than it was 2 days ago (had the meeting been a fiasco), and much less likely than it was in November (before Moon Jae In's offer was accepted by NK). So I think both Kim and Trump but most of all Moon deserve credit for pulling back from a frightening situation (when NK was testing every few weeks and there were repeated US border in response).
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North Korea may just have run out of quality rocket fuel to keep testing every week, or may just be satisfied with their tests... They have given up on 0 capability because of Trump talks and as far as I'm aware haven't made any concrete pledges as a result of them either? The US meanwhile pledged to end their maneuvers with S.Korea without even telling S.Koreans beforehand.

Maybe, and i'm really unsure about it, but maybe the world has become a safer place. If so it's because Kim got what he wanted.
 
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