Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

This article entails as detailed of an analysis as anyone can provide as to where things are headed: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2022 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

There are reasons unfortunately to be skeptical that the UKR will be able to hold out, especially in an indiscriminate onslaught of artillery and airstrikes. I think the three things that UKR will need to go in their favor are 1) for Russian soldiers to continue quitting, 2) for logistics to not be able to sustain a long offensive, and 3) for the newly delivered fighters from the EU to prevent Russia from gaining air superiority/supremacy.
 
Carolina Red said:
Posting this again if you’re wondering how the war might go once the Russians actually get into major cities

https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/

Here’s an aggregate article drawing on lessons from many of the case studies
https://mwi.usma.edu/defending-the-...ics-from-the-modern-history-of-urban-warfare/
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We're not hearing a lot about what exactly is occurring in Kyiv. But I hope they're turning it into pandora's box. It does take a rapid mindset shift, the building you looked at as a bank for example your entire life now becomes a potential fortification.
 
IWat said:
We're not hearing a lot about what exactly is occurring in Kyiv. But I hope they're turning it into pandora's box. It does take a rapid mindset shift, the building you looked at as a bank for example your entire life now becomes a potential fortification.
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And the more damage the cities take, the harder they become to control vs. a determined defense
 
VorZakone said:
It's pretty surreal seeing former officials like this ex US ambassador to Russia openly pleading Russians to get out. Incredible times.

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He is as knowledgeable regarding Russia as just about anyone stateside, even if I did not always agree with him.
 
nimic said:
I didn't say 'objective'. I'm saying the Russian side is mostly or fully state controlled, i.e. not independent. Furthermore, they are controlled by the state in a much more direct way than for example the BBC or NRK. Going "both sides are equally bad" is reductive and unhelpful.

Saying you've heard more wrong things from "Ukraine's side" is very misleading, given Ukraine has 100x the support, and thus many more uninformed people online. And it doesn't help that your examples of 'wrong things' are partly basically memes upvoted on Reddit or Twitter, not actual, significant content. You might as well put the 'Steven Seagal is with Russian special forces' thing in the Ukraine wrong column. One valid example you have was that of the 'Russian tank' which was neither a tank nor Russian, but you missed that it was fairly early on identified as a panicked driver trying to find his unit and appearing to be engaged. Not, as you suggested, someone who deliberately drove over a civilian to enforce a curfew (which I don't believe had been been expanded yet). That suggests to me that you're overestimating the misinformation from the Ukrainian side and underestimating that from the Russians.
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You're correct that there are more pro-Ukraine news/content at the moment and I'm also more exposed to pro-Ukraine sources than pro-Russia, although I try to follow both, and that might (at least partly) explain why I'm identifying more false news in the pro-Ukraine camp, but even with that explanation it doesn't change the fact that among all the news circulating about the conflict more pro-Ukraine news are turning out to be false.

And I'm not talking only about 'memes' which are effective propaganda tools promoted even by the mainstream media (let alone Facebook, Twitter and Youtube who pretend to fight misinformation ;) ), I'm also talking about the news spread by the pro-Ukraine camp. Even today we had the news about the fighter jets coming to Ukraine, which also turned out to be false. I get it, it's part of the war and they're trying to raise the morale of their troops, so I don't blame them for it, just stating my observation.
 
I presume that convoy is extremely heavily defended air wise otherwise surely it's ripe pickings for the Turkish drones or any jets available. Unless it's a trap to try and lure them in.
 
Danny1982 said:
You're correct that there are more pro-Ukraine news/content at the moment and I'm also more exposed to pro-Ukraine sources than pro-Russia, although I try to follow both, and that might (at least partly) explain why I'm identifying more false news in the pro-Ukraine camp, but even with that explanation it doesn't change the fact that among all the news circulating about the conflict more pro-Ukraine news are turning out to be false.

And I'm not talking only about 'memes' which are effective propaganda tools promoted even by the mainstream media (let alone Facebook, Twitter and Youtube who pretend to fight misinformation ;) ), I'm also talking about the news spread by the pro-Ukraine camp. Even today we had the news about the fighter jets coming to Ukraine, which also turned out to be false. I get it, it's part of the war and they're trying to raise the morale of their troops, so I don't blame them for it, just stating my observation.
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They're also a country under siege trying to manage 500 moving parts. Don't get me wrong, no doubt some/most is intentional. But I also reckon some is lost in translation or Chinese whispers at play etc.

Russia will also be impacted by that to a lesser extent.
 
Danny1982 said:
You're correct that there are more pro-Ukraine news/content at the moment and I'm also more exposed to pro-Ukraine sources than pro-Russia, although I try to follow both, and that might (at least partly) explain why I'm identifying more false news in the pro-Ukraine camp, but even with that explanation it doesn't change the fact that among all the news circulating about the conflict more pro-Ukraine news are turning out to be false.

And I'm not talking only about 'memes' which are effective propaganda tools promoted even by the mainstream media (let alone Facebook, Twitter and Youtube who pretend to fight misinformation ;) ), I'm also talking about the news spread by the pro-Ukraine camp. Even today we had the news about the fighter jets coming to Ukraine, which also turned out to be false. I get it, it's part of the war and they're trying to raise the morale of their troops, so I don't blame them for it, just stating my observation.
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I don't disagree in principle. While you were typing I edited my post to add some nuance at the end. I've been yelled at before for editing my posts after the fact, but I regret nothing!
 
Rightnr said:
Don't want to overpromote but watching this is fascinating.

Putin sounds like the quintessential Eastern European boomer. Doesn't use the internet, his English is decent but not great and he doesn't have a phone.

One example they gave is if a video on YouTube slating him goes viral, he'd have images of the video printed out for him.

This is the kind of stuff that makes me think that generation (or the politicians from it) will end us all before they go to the grave.
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Thanks for this video, that was a truly fascinating insight. Or at least opinion. Touched on a lot of nuances within Putin's persona that I hadn't considered.
 
nimic said:
I don't disagree in principle. While you were typing I edited my post to add some nuance at the end. I've been yelled at before for editing my posts after the fact, but I regret nothing!
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:lol:

To be honest some of these 'memes' have been shared on this forum as well. :p

But I agree, this is definitely a better place to follow the conflict than reddit, facebook or twitter.
 
crappycraperson said:
It has been confirmed by some Indian students that Ukraine guards are stopping them and some Africans from leaving the border and even asking for money while europeans are being allowed to pass without much trouble.
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If any particular guards are extorting people for cash, or giving preferential treatment, they should face charges. I can believe that, but not that it's a government policy.
 
Perhaps Putin thinks the resources he gains by controlling Ukraine outweigh the sanctions and the deaths.

Hard to rationalise his thinking process.
 
Another half arsed attempt to take a big city ongoing (Kherson in the South), expect it to fail. They landed a small force in/near the Kherson airport to the West of the Dnieper river and they're trying to take the city using that force (like what they did on the first day near Kyiv). There are currently no other Russian forces stationed to the West of the river, which means support for the attack will be very limited.
 
Danny1982 said:
Another half arsed attempt to take a big city ongoing (Kherson in the South), expect it to fail. They landed a small force in/near the Kherson airport to the West of the Dnieper river and they're trying to take the city using that force (like what they did on the first day near Kyiv). There are currently no other Russian forces stationed to the West of the river, which means support for the attack will be very limited.
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I'm not so sure about that:


 
Danny1982 said:
Another half arsed attempt to take a big city ongoing (Kherson in the South), expect it to fail. They landed a small force in/near the Kherson airport to the West of the Dnieper river and they're trying to take the city using that force (like what they did on the first day near Kyiv). There are currently no other Russian forces stationed to the West of the river, which means support for the attack will be very limited.
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Based on the post below that it might be going wrong. I don't know if they perhaps need to be more dynamic in their thinking. It's easy for me to say here, but there's no point staying in a city being shelled to shit in large numbers.

If there is no Russian support near something like:
Burn all the food you can.
Give the city up and leave only pockets of resistance to annoy.
Encircle.
Wait it out.

The problem is the rest of the country might fall by the time they run out of food that they can find. And it's something that takes planning and organisation.
 
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sport2793 said:
I'm not so sure about that:


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I don't look at the statements, I look at the map and the number of troops deployed. There is only a small force on the Western side of the river right now and is very vulnerable, definitely not in a position to stage an attack on a big city. I think the Ukrainians are exaggerating the attack, may be an attempt to raise the morale of the Ukrainian forces in the South by claiming a big victory tomorrow...
 
Are there any Czech people here? Can they confirm this?

Apparently you get 1-3 years in prison in the Czech republic if you make an online comment approving Russia's aggression in Ukraine.

Russia faces imprisonment for its support. Police are already investigating dozens of complaints

Czech police are already investigating dozens of complaints from people who reported that someone had publicly approved and supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On Saturday, Attorney General Igor Stříž warned that he could face up to three years in prison for supporting Russian aggression, for example on demonstrations or social networks.
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https://tn.nova.cz/zpravodajstvi/cl...i-vezeni-policie-uz-vysetruje-desitky-podnetu
 
Rightnr said:
It honestly pissed me off to no end that Russia is ruled by this absolutely sole stain.

By all accounts, they should be a nation to be marvelled at, given their resources, size and rich history. This arsehole is like the lowest of glass ceilings you will ever see on a nation.

Even despite Putin's cabal being in charge, they're still a superpower but there's so much more there...
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"Superpower" that sends their soldiers to fight in a major war with food packs expired 7 years ago

Sure. "Super" power. They powers are at display by anyone. Can't even defeat a much smaller Ukrainian army and is now resorting to aimless shelling of civilians. Their only "power" is being bloody murderers and war criminals.
 
Danny1982 said:
I don't look at the statements, I look at the map and the number of troops deployed. There is only a small force on the Western side of the river right now and is very vulnerable, definitely not in a position to stage an attack on a big city. I think the Ukrainians are exaggerating the attack, may be an attempt to raise the morale of the Ukrainian forces in the South by claiming a big victory tomorrow...
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Hopefully you are right. If you do end up being right, then it is starting to become clear that UKR and the West may also be manipulating the media/social media.
 
Danny1982 said:
Are there any Czech people here? Can they confirm this?

Apparently you get 1-3 years in prison in the Czech republic if you make an online comment approving Russia's aggression in Ukraine.



https://tn.nova.cz/zpravodajstvi/cl...i-vezeni-policie-uz-vysetruje-desitky-podnetu
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"If someone publicly (including demonstrations, the Internet or social networks) agreed (accepted or supported the Russian Federation's attacks on Ukraine) or expressed support or praised the leaders of the Russian Federation in this regard, they could, under certain conditions, face criminal liability for the criminal offense of approving a criminal offense pursuant to Section 365 of the Criminal Code, or for the criminal offense of denying, questioning, approving and justifying genocide pursuant to Section 405 of the Criminal Code, "Stříž said in a press release on the Supreme Public Prosecutor's Office.
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It seems they have existing laws about expressing approval of criminal acts that could see people charged. Police have received complaints from people and are investigating them.

I guess that means the Czech state sees Russia's acts as criminal or even worse. The laws don't seem that much different from Germany in some respects.
 
Varun said:
Any updates from what happened in the meeting?
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Nothing came out of it beyond an agreement to have a potential second meeting at a later date. Putin has simply used the lull to position his massive convoy towards Kyiv.
 
Does Russia have the ability to cyber attack the banking systems in the west? For the past 10 years we've heard of Russians prodding weaknesses in key networks and systems, is this something the west allows because they have it covered and are letting them play their games or is Russia threat to really cause damage to the banking world?

Basically is it a good idea for me to take some cash out juuuustt in case since I generally keep very little on me?
 
Raoul said:
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Short of fighting the Russians in Ukraine, NATO could allow Ukrainian pilots to use eastern NATO bases to stage Ukrainian fighter sorties, and provide mainland refueling between flights. This would be in a similar way as Putin is using Belarus as a staging point into Ukraine.
 
atkar83 said:
Does Russia have the ability to cyber attack the banking systems in the west? For the past 10 years we've heard of Russians prodding weaknesses in key networks and systems, is this something the west allows because they have it covered and are letting them play their games or is Russia threat to really cause damage to the banking world?

Basically is it a good idea for me to take some cash out juuuustt in case since I generally keep very little on me?
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Its widely believed the Russians have placed malware on various US networks. How effective they would be is another story. I believe the FBI also arrested a couple of Russians a few years back after learning they were making inquiries on how to bring the stock market down.
 
Raoul said:
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I doubt anybody would want to trigger article 5 over a cyber attack, no matter how inconvenient. Probably just rhetoric to try and put Putin off attempting it.

Won't stop him though. He'll just deny it was them.
 
atkar83 said:
Does Russia have the ability to cyber attack the banking systems in the west? For the past 10 years we've heard of Russians prodding weaknesses in key networks and systems, is this something the west allows because they have it covered and are letting them play their games or is Russia threat to really cause damage to the banking world?

Basically is it a good idea for me to take some cash out juuuustt in case since I generally keep very little on me?
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2017. NotPetya. The podcast darknet diaries have an episode on this. Originated from Russia to attack Ukraine, it spread around the world like a virus. Remember when card payments stopped working for hours... I was working in a supermarket and the whole system went down. So yes they can very much retaliate
 
Raoul said:
Nothing came out of it beyond an agreement to have a potential second meeting at a later date. Putin has simply used the lull to position his massive convoy towards Kyiv.
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Expected as much.
 
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