No other government fill fall.
A people's Revolution
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I get the feeling it won't happen quite as smoothly in other countries though.
I think Bahrain is the unlikely target to be next - an oppressed majority is more difficult to suppress.
bahrain started already
Protests in Algeria and Yemen too
Protests in Algeria and Yemen too
The media has misinterpreted the middle east "shake-up". The only real change is Tunisia. Egypt's regime will remain intact; power will belong to the military but a figurehead will be elected and a parliament composed of Egypt's billionaire oligarchs. Algeria, Yemen and Bahrain don't have the numbers, resources or education. Iran protests will be put down swiftly.
I'm hoping you are wrong... (Though I think you are correct) ...I can't imagine the Egyptian people will tolerate the same thing, come Sept.
No, I think the media got it right. The so called shake-up may not happen immediately, but it will happen, whether this year or in the next few. Theocracies, corrupt monarchies, and otherwise authoritarian systems are completely incompatible in a world of complex interdependence. The more information that seeps in, the more unsustainable dictatorships will become.
Let's see how Tunisia and Egypt pan out...
I hope they don't follow India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh style democracies. Where not much has been achieved to reduce the gap between rich and poor, where demonstrators are still subjected to horrific violence and even shot. Poverty, human rights abuses are still rife and are on the list of the most corrupt nations. Standing as MP's is a lucrative business, and those paying the highest bribes are given a ticket to contest a seat.
Sorry to be negative, but I can see army coups will be order of the day after a short stint of democracy if time is not taken to get a proper system in place - for democracy to work a whole new set of values, education, and a mindset has to be created amongst the nations people.
I hope they don't follow India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh style democracies. Where not much has been achieved to reduce the gap between rich and poor, where demonstrators are still subjected to horrific violence and even shot. Poverty, human rights abuses are still rife and are on the list of the most corrupt nations. Standing as MP's is a lucrative business, and those paying the highest bribes are given a ticket to contest a seat.
Sorry to be negative, but I can see army coups will be order of the day after a short stint of democracy if time is not taken to get a proper system in place - for democracy to work a whole new set of values, education, and a mindset has to be created amongst the nations people.
There is a vast difference between the democracy in Pakistan and India. Not saying anything you said is not true but Pak are on a whole level all together.
Of course there is a difference. They are still effectively democracies.
Not really. Bar the emergency period, India has never been subjected to any type of military rule or coup by someone overthrowing an elected Govt. And now with a strong Election Commission, even the days of rigged elections at state level are behind us. Something which can not be said of Pakistan or Bangladesh.
Any party or alliance in India have always respected the election results and not tried to cling on to the power by anything unconstitutional. Some of the points you raised are very much true though. Corruption is still rampant in our system, political parties are turning to dynasties. Human right violations vary with the region you are based in. In big metros, with media glare, police is not heavy handed at all now.
There's no doubt India has sustained stable democracy, and like you rightly point out Pakistan have abandoned democracy for authoritarian form of rule in it's short history a number of times.
My point is how one views on the success and failure of democracy. For some an ideal democracy is where everyone is equal, politically engaged with an equal voice, and where MP's and officials are accountable, which I don't think is the case in India at this moment in time. I reckon some people just view democracy as an institution, meaning free and fair elections, and that's it! I don't think India has reached a point of democracy where it's citizens are fully equal.
Yeah, fair enough. We definitely have a big problem brining politicans to justice when they commit some crime or scam. Current CWG and 2G scams will be the acid test if we are improving on this front or same old-same old.
I think similar problems await Egypt and Tunisia. I hope people don't expect miracles from future politicians. A bumpy ride awaits...
And that's exactly what factions like MB thrive on. The elation in Cairo was understandable, as will the frustration when Egyptians find out that throwing Mubarak was the easy part. MB don't need a candidate for presidency in September, and their declarations in that regards may have people take their eyes off the ball. When a newly-elected administration fails to tackle poverty, unemployment and corruption more people will be drafted to the MB that will be there to provide social care. That's how Hamas, Hizballah and to an extent Shas in Israel gain political power.
Happy Birthday HR. Here's wishing you many happy and healthy returns.
Elections in Bangladesh are very much free and fair, the Election Commission is also very independent and strong.
Had local elections a month or so ago, almost no violence, and the Ruling party barely beat out the opposition(almost unheard of in the days of staged elections), also had some by-elections(death, disqualifications etc etc) and the Ruling party actually lost a couple of erstwhile safe seats(1 by a mere 1300 votes), again unheard of in the days of ballot box stuffing.
Losing Candidates whinge about rigged elections, but they are ignored, the media here is also very free, to the point where it is downright dangerous(absolutely no accountability, some of the shit they make up and print
- one thing I'll definitely miss when my stay here is finished. )you're wrong..god's willin
Interesting, is that how the Irgun manifested itself?
Bahrainians have already camped in their own Tahrir square : The lo'lo'a (pearl) square
Pearl Roundabout/Glastonbury/Woodstock #Bahrain on Twitpic
Pearl Roundabout/Glastonbury/Woodstock #Bahrain on Twitpic
The media felt humiliated for having not predicted this sooner so they opt for sensationalism over sober analysis. Also, as long as major powers support these regimes, they will remain in power.
The protests in Algeria, for example, have already died down.
Did anyone hear about the CBS reporter who was beaten and sexually assaulted by a large number of men after becoming separated from her film crew in the middle of the protests?
BBC News - CBS's Lara Logan attacked by Egyptian mob in Cairo
It's quite shocking that such a thing was able to happen before anyone bothered to intervene. The article says it took 20 soldiers and a group of women to save her, for Christ's sake. What is wrong with people?
BBC News - CBS's Lara Logan attacked by Egyptian mob in Cairo
It's quite shocking that such a thing was able to happen before anyone bothered to intervene. The article says it took 20 soldiers and a group of women to save her, for Christ's sake. What is wrong with people?
Sexual harassment is a serious endemic issue here in Egypt . its sad that Mrs Logan had to endure such traumatic experience. people here are livid. We were so proud that in tahrir no sectarian tension..no sexual harassment .nothing bad is happening .
But that day, when people started celebrating, the uh.. watch guards who guard the different entrances to the square joined in the celebrations.
I was there, I didn't hear or see anything but rejoicing people, yet later I heard of several such incidents, the latest I heard of is Logan's . You couldn't stop or spot things easily. there were like 1 million people,possibly more there that it was impossible to walk.. you only get pushed.
Seems that assholes who didn't participate or have anything to do with the revolution joined in to have fun and..more
Not that it matters who did it, it's tragic either way.
But that day, when people started celebrating, the uh.. watch guards who guard the different entrances to the square joined in the celebrations.
I was there, I didn't hear or see anything but rejoicing people, yet later I heard of several such incidents, the latest I heard of is Logan's . You couldn't stop or spot things easily. there were like 1 million people,possibly more there that it was impossible to walk.. you only get pushed.
Seems that assholes who didn't participate or have anything to do with the revolution joined in to have fun and..more
Not that it matters who did it, it's tragic either way.
My prayers for Mrs. Logan and her family.
Reports in Iran suggest a second wave of protests very soon.
Reports in Iran suggest a second wave of protests very soon.
Some have simmered down, others have started up. The point being that autocratic regimes are gradually going the way of the Dodo bird.
Tragic. I've worked with her on numerous occasions in Iraq. She's a a fantastic journalist and I hope she recovers from this to work again.
They seem to be getting quite stronger, or at least changing expression. Afghanistan is an example where the entire international community, the United States, NATO, the UN and hundreds of observers oversaw a national election rife with corruption and had Hamid Karzai being voted a second time. Iraq is an example where a government is the political arm of the much-feared Badr Brigades.
There are several factors for this, and I'm guessing you will cite a few but my point is this. It doesn't matter how ruthless a government is. If the economy is sound, then people are happy and they won't rebel.
You've got Dawa confused with ISCI (The Islamic Council in Iraq aka "Majlis"). The Badr movement of the old days has completelty moved towards the political process, although there continue to be a few problems with Sadrists who have one foot in the political process and one foot in the old 2004-09 militia world.
Read too many from the news agencies to take it on face value - I am sure there is a great deal of sensationalism involved.
Most news agencies are taking it from CBS' own press release. It would beyond cynical if they have hyped it up.
Bahrain's government massacre its peaceful protesting citizens!
Despicable actions from the government in Bahrain, the government are attacking its people! Riot police attacked the peaceful protestors at 3 am last night while they were sleeping in the loloa roundabout. Tear gases, rubber bullets and even shotguns are being used! Many tanks were also brought to intimidate the people into clearing the roundabout.
At least 3 killed so far, with one of them being a 60 year old man after he received over 20 rubber bullets to his chest, and much more of the Bahrainis are gravely injured (a 3 year old girl is in a critical condition at hopital). The riot forces even attacked defenseless women and children!!! Also ABC correspondent has broadcasted an audio recording of him getting beaten too.
The riot police are even vandalising the people's cars and destroying them.
Many people are also reporting that hospitals were given orders not to treat the injured people and to throw them out too! Reports of at least 500 just in the Salmaniyya hospital!
These scum have declared war against their own people! Reports of imminent internet blockage, just like what happened in Egypt.
These are some of the pictures of the victims which are being circulated around the internet.
Graphic pictures warning:
This is a picture of one of the victims, he's almost 60 years old. This one is so graphic I'm not even sure I can post it here, I wouldn't be surprised if I got banned for this...
A YouTube video of the disgusting attack
And another one of more tanks arriving to the roundabouts this morning
Update 1:
By orders from the health minister, not a SINGLE ambulance to is out to help the injured. Can the government get any more vile???
Absolutely disgusting.
Medical staff from the hospital protesting not being allowed to treat the injured.
Update 2:
Pictures of the injured as they're being treated in hospitals here.
Update 3:
Unconfirmed reports of the minister of health resigning.
Despicable actions from the government in Bahrain, the government are attacking its people! Riot police attacked the peaceful protestors at 3 am last night while they were sleeping in the loloa roundabout. Tear gases, rubber bullets and even shotguns are being used! Many tanks were also brought to intimidate the people into clearing the roundabout.
At least 3 killed so far, with one of them being a 60 year old man after he received over 20 rubber bullets to his chest, and much more of the Bahrainis are gravely injured (a 3 year old girl is in a critical condition at hopital). The riot forces even attacked defenseless women and children!!! Also ABC correspondent has broadcasted an audio recording of him getting beaten too.
The riot police are even vandalising the people's cars and destroying them.
Many people are also reporting that hospitals were given orders not to treat the injured people and to throw them out too! Reports of at least 500 just in the Salmaniyya hospital!
These scum have declared war against their own people! Reports of imminent internet blockage, just like what happened in Egypt.
These are some of the pictures of the victims which are being circulated around the internet.
Graphic pictures warning:
This is a picture of one of the victims, he's almost 60 years old. This one is so graphic I'm not even sure I can post it here, I wouldn't be surprised if I got banned for this...
A YouTube video of the disgusting attack
And another one of more tanks arriving to the roundabouts this morning
Update 1:
By orders from the health minister, not a SINGLE ambulance to is out to help the injured. Can the government get any more vile???
Absolutely disgusting.
Medical staff from the hospital protesting not being allowed to treat the injured.
Update 2:
Pictures of the injured as they're being treated in hospitals here.
Update 3:
Unconfirmed reports of the minister of health resigning.
In reply to Lynott from the closed thread:
Exactly, that's the point. Most of these riot police are recently naturalized citizens brought from south east asian and other arab countries. They're mercenaries which have been given the citizenship by thousands just to bring down the number of Shia majority to the current percentage of two thirds of the population (Most of these victims are Shia Muslims).
So no wonder they massacred these Bahrainis with absolutely cold blood. They're not Bahrainis.
Exactly, that's the point. Most of these riot police are recently naturalized citizens brought from south east asian and other arab countries. They're mercenaries which have been given the citizenship by thousands just to bring down the number of Shia majority to the current percentage of two thirds of the population (Most of these victims are Shia Muslims).
So no wonder they massacred these Bahrainis with absolutely cold blood. They're not Bahrainis.
Do we have any historians on these boards? Im interested in knowing what the critical trigger points are for a civilian revolution to occur and also to succeed. For example, what was the collective psychology of the French Peasants .... what tipping point to people have to overcome before they decide enough is enough?
Likewise, what actions can a ruling power can to discourage or halt a revolution? Is it purely through intimidation and fear? Do a certain amount of people need to die before a mass group collectively retreats?
Anyone know any good reads around this subject? Anyway, think its worth a discussion on this thread.
Likewise, what actions can a ruling power can to discourage or halt a revolution? Is it purely through intimidation and fear? Do a certain amount of people need to die before a mass group collectively retreats?
Anyone know any good reads around this subject? Anyway, think its worth a discussion on this thread.
This is INCEPTION - one that idea takes hold like a virus it spreads.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
I'm not sure if this is what you mean or if this is any good, but the New York Times had an article discussing the man who wrote it. It's a free sorta DIY handbook for revolutions. I haven't gotten around to reading it yet.
The book on pdf:http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/FDTD.pdf
When is something like this going to happen in Iran again or was all that quashed in the summer of 09?
Urdu speaking Bahraini police attacking protesters
I really do want to see the Saudis shit themselves silly.
I really do want to see the Saudis shit themselves silly.
The government will turn this into a Sunni Shia issue.