What is the EU's end game? We still have very powerful institutions in London, Scotland, and Wales who make their own rules.
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Don't forget the 28% who didn't even bother to vote. Not voting for a change generally indicates you're content enough with the status quo or completely disinterested. Only the people with stronger feelings about it one way or the other will take the time to vote, and those who want the change will always vote.
Look at the Welsh referendum in the 90s. 50% of the electorate turned out to vote, and the "yes to an Assembly" vote was just over half of those who voted (by the slimmest margin). So basically, only about 25% of Welsh people really wanted an Assembly.
It's amazing how the Tory party is managing to look in chaos but simultaneously is (somewhat) improving it's public image as most of the MPs/people resigning are the genuine scum/shite of the party.
They'll be replaced soon enough though, one thing the Tory party has is a never ending conveyor belt of tossers.
Were you drunk when you posted that? Because you quite literally answered the question yourself already, see the bolded. Spain's economy hasn't been great, and there is a lot of unemployment.
Unemployment Spain 2018: 16.74%
Unemployment UK & the Netherlands 2018: less than 5%
Why would there be a shortage in the UK and the Netherlands? Because they're relatively wealthy countries, catering jobs are often incredibly hard work for minimum wage, and most working people would prefer something better than a catering job and jump on every opportunity to get a better job, or less hard working for the same amount of money, like for example in a call centre. It's the same with the vegetable picking in the greenhouses, it's about the toughest minimum wage job there is, and no one wants to do it.
Now back to Spain's high unemployment numbers, surely it's not difficult to understand why Spanish nationals do want to work the tough catering jobs against a shite salary? Because at least it's better than being unemployed and broke.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-chef-shortage-eating-out-under-threat-brexit
"The situation, post-Brexit, will only become more complicated. The British Hospitality Association, with help from accountancy firm KPMG, published a report last year which suggests that the sector is staring into a recruitment black hole without EU nationals to bail them out: by 2029, the industry could have a deficit of more than a million workers. The report recommended that the industry will need to find at least another 60,000 workers per year on top of the 200,000 required “to replace churn and to power growth”."
And there's this. "A recent survey by the Institute of Directors found that 60% of UK employers saw migrant workers as harder working, more reliable and better skilled than natives."
https://www.thecaterer.com/articles/312034/eastern-europeans-fill-uk-hospitality-jobs
Yeah but here's the flipside. When that shortage materialises, maybe the hospitality industry will start having to pay higher salaries instead of pittance which will also increase retention and prevent the "churn" as they describe it. That's a positive for the average person.
When you have uncontrolled migration, due to a union of economies of hugely different scales, you get a large influx of workers across the whole spectrum. Both for employment sectors that need workers, and for sectors that don't. When the worker supply begins to exceed the demand, the salaries stop growing. Because you can always readily replace a departing worker with another one for same or lower salary. It creates a downward pressure on salaries. As logic dictates and also evidenced in Mediterranean economies of large unemployment rates.
For healthy economies though, you end up in a situation where businesses are flourishing because they take advantage of cheaper and readily available labour. The stock exchange is booming , dividends for rich shareholders go up and CEO pay packets rocket upwards. Meanwhile the average worker salary is staying put or even decreasing after adjusting for inflation. Now if the country is also caught up in a financial bind, having to cut back on services & benefits then you have a really nasty effect where the rich start getting much richer while the lower classes bear the brunt in every way possible by both salaries and public services being hit. This an incomplete (admittedly) summation of what has happened in the UK in the last 8 years.
For example I look at my industry which is I.T. and I compare UK salaries to US salaries. The combination of two effects in the US have created a shortage:
a) more expensive education not easily available to all. And..
b) strong restriction on migration
This has resulted in highly increased wages. When I last had a look, the average salary in the States is approximately 70% higher compared to the UK for Software Devs, while living costs are largely the same or comparable. My London-based company has an office in NY and when we talked to recruitment agents there with plans to staff an I.T. department the salary expenditure we were confronted with made us shelve the plans entirely and base everything in London.
Now from my POV I see what is happening in the US I.T. industry as a good thing for the workers. The fact some of these firms struggle to get good workers on the cheap, I would not give two fecks about. Especially when most Western countries have rather low corporate/dividend tax, so it's even better for the country if the revenue is transferred to the employees and taxed heavily rather than reported as company profit or dividends and taxed much less. So long as business growth is not too negatively impacted, the average Joe benefits from a minor shortage.
So yeah, there is a problem with uncontrolled migration (especially for an English speaking country) and I say that as a pro-European and remainer.
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Agree. A mate of mine recently applied at my company as a network security eng. The initial interview ended as soon as salary was discussed. The have now hired someone from south africa rather than someone in NL. ABN bank pay 100k for good network guys currently but i can see that coming down. Palo Alto used to pay 120k but that is around 80 now. Race to the bottom.
How will leaving the EU help to control immigration in anybway not already possible? And what effect will it have on non-EU immigration?
What do you mean? Controlling migration for EU nationals is not a thing, it's not possible at all atm.
There's many ways that it will be possible in afterwards. Like the Canadian system of issuing working visas based on a number of conditions, like professions in big shortage and family status etc.
Non-EU migration will be unaffected I assume.
It's actually possible, the only EU nationals allowed to be in your country are the ones with a job or that are studying, the rest only have 3 months.
Isn't it?
Tell your mate to come to Belgium. According to recent reports we need 16.000 IT'ers extra in 2018. I'm in IT myself, and it's paid very good, including company car, cellphone, laptop, health insurance and about 35 days annual leave. Salaries are going though the roof here. Weird it would be so different in the UK.
Not strictly. They can stay longer than 3 months without a job so long as they can insure themselves and self-finance. And also you can move out of the country and back in, initiating a new 3-month period. So technically that's not even enforceable. I've never heard of an EU national being deported for not finding a job, have you?
Secondly telling people you have 3-months to find a job is not "controlling migration". Even if people were deported after 3 months of not finding jobs (which they are not) the impact on the jobs market would still be very significant, probably (speculation here) equal to not having that restriction at all.
You can come in as an engineer applying for jobs. If you don't find one in 3 months, you get a job in the catering industry to earn an income while you keep applying for engineering jobs. The impact on the job market for engineers is immediately felt.
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It's different because the supply has managed to outstrip the demand. A benefit for business but not workers. I speculate it's in part because English is the second language for everyone, so when high skilled workers from lower income regions of EU seek to migrate.. the UK becomes their most likely choice.
Same was the situation with universities, with UK universities getting the lion's share of foreign students even after introducing fees (compared to EU universities that are largely completely free)
It isn't
Mate of mine, german passport holder, was threatened with deportation from NL when he claimed dole after being made redundant. So where is all this equality? I dont believe that while you have even 1% unemployment there should be any race to the bottom by hiring from abroad.
Yes, thousands of them.
Business are not getting a perfect match for their job opening, they are getting whoever will work for the price, that is usually someone from eastern europe. I'd really like to see me be disproven. Why a lot end up in the uk can only be because of low taxes, salaries in uk are decades behind NL at least.
I wonder if the mandatory registration in many EU countries isn't also why a lot will choose the UK, it's probably easier to disappear in London when you don't have a job.
https://www.city.ac.uk/news/2017/november/when-britain-can-deport-eu-citizens-according-to-the-law
Unfortunately the Daily Mail doesn't really report on that kind of stuff.
Yeah, no.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36449974
There is no way to check how many were deported specifically for not finding jobs (it's called being a burden) but the number of deportations of EU nationals is extremely low. And they can return afterwards, unless it's due to criminal convictions etc.
Well, you'd have to prove your statement first instead of putting the onus on someone else to disprove it.
I work in IT, interviewing process and trials are very rigorous. We don't sacrifice quality in favour of getting anyone (the cheaper one) in. The workplace have a very diverse work force.
My 9-man Software Development team consists of:
- 2 English
- 2 Indians
- 1 Spanish
- 1 Italian
- 1 Greek
- 1 French
- 1 Australian
There is a large supply of skilled people. Taxes are not particularly low in the UK, not sure what you're talking about there.
I proved it a few posts back
Because they’re lazy bastards and it’s better on the dole
Link the post please?
I would halve my tax if i moved back to uk. Don't forget tax shy brits has already been covered in the nhs thread and many others. I am not going to repeat myself.
No seriously, in Belgium alone it's in the tenth of thousands and yes it's called being a burden to the social system. Now you can obviously pretend that it's two different subjects.
Edit: Also Cameron didn't negotiate anything the law is from 2003.
Again, that number is not recorded in the UK. Or at least not reported. The total deportations yes, but not how many were due to being a burden.
And I don't think I need to repeat myself why this does not constitute "controlling migration".
EDIT: The Cameron stuff is unrelated. The link explained the status quo before Cameron's negotiations, which got rejected anyway.
Well I'm not talking about the UK and you weren't either, you said that it was impossible. It's not impossible, the UK decided to not do it.
Sending people home 3 months after they don't find a job =/= control on people coming in (the definition of migration). Which is what I was talking about. And you still haven't disproved it in any way.
Also, can I have a link about the deportations of EU citizens from Belgium for being a burden? Any language, I'll google translate. Because EU citizens have more rights than non-EU citizens ofc. there's many ways EU citizens can block their deportation on grounds of being a burden. Hence, it's not generally attempted.
What salary would these guys earn?
Depends on level of experience and the job they do. Lowest are at 40k, highest at 75k.
So, at my last place a dutch guy in tech support, yes tech support, started on 95k euros. The rest were on high 80s. They wont pay cuts as i have mentioned in an earlier post so any company with a vacancy will have to pay or look further afield. Theres your race to the bottom right there. I am in the middle of your pay scale and i am without a single qualification to my name.
How much experience do the 75k guys have?
In Dublin you'd expect to be on close to six figures or more in IT after 10ish years, would've thought London was similar.
You have experience and it's valuable. What jobs are you able to postulate for?
Interesting read.
Obviously as I said, that's not controlling migration. And in my personal opinion, controlling the flow of people coming in is preferable in many ways to deporting people afterwards. Both for the country (since deportations can be quite an expensive legal process) but more importantly for the individuals. I wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of the State trying to remove me from my home, sounds pretty horrible.
Tech support, sys admin. As i said earlier, palo alto used to pay tech support 120k but they dont have to now. Some companies do pay and they aquire the best people, others are happy with adequate.
The thing is that it's actually controlling migration and demography, I can understand why people tend to focus on how to prevent people from crossing borders but it's not a complete view of migration control.
Edit: Migration control includes people that come in and people that leave your territory, you can have a policy that incite people to come or have a policy that is less welcoming.
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10 years plus and are the people leading the team (i.e. more responsibility)
In London, the money is generally in contracting. Perm market does not pay well.
Also these salaries used to be more equalised when the Sterling was 1.4 Euros in 2016. The pound has crashed to 1.13 Euros since, but obviously the salaries have barely nudged up. Definitely not enough to compensate. Therefore salaries outside the UK now seem much higher than inside.
The Sterling-Euro exchange rate has done more to reduce migration to UK from EU than any other factor including Brexit imo.
This might seem a bit anecdotal, but I remember reading an article about unpicked fruit because seasonal workers from Romania did not want to come and pick fruit in the UK. And one of the main reasons for that lack of interest, was the bad exchange rate on the Sterling.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44230865
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