Russia Discussion

MarceloFalcon said:
I know, the correct phrase would be "the US dollar appreciated 210% vs. the Hyrvana". Which is not a very informative way to look at it, so it would be better to say that the currency lost 70% of its value. Just being a prick, nothing more to add.
Click to expand...

The rouble has also collapsed during the same period, which in addition to Putin's invasions, sanctions, and a drop in oil, is an ancillary consequence of a new dollar bull market. No doubt Ukraine has a lot of problems which are related to decades of Russian kleptocratic interference, but the drop in its currency is related to more factors than just that.
 
antihenry said:
No, it's not a fact. Yanukovich being a corrupt politician has feck all to do with Putin and Russia. Corruption was always a major problem in Ukraine, it didn't start with Yanukovich, and as we can clearly see now, it certainly didn't decrease after he'd left.

You have a very selective memory. I'd say, Putin armed and militarily supported a rebellion in reaction to the anti-constitutional coup that toppled legitimately and democratically elected president, a coup which was directly supported by the US and EU. What was he supposed to do, sit on his ass and wait for NATO fleet to arrive in Crimea and the US military bases to appear on the Russian - Ukrainian border? Let's imagine something similar on the US - Mexican border and imagine what the US State Dept would do in such scenario. I'm sure, considering their impeccable record when it comes to respecting sovereignty of other countries, Americans'd be absolutely fine with it.
Click to expand...

I'd say it is you who have the selective memory because you know full well that Russia intervened in Ukrainian politics and particularly in the election of their preferred candidate in presidential elections from well before the events you cite and falsely ascribe. Up to and including vote rigging on a massive scale and attempting to murder by poisoning the main rival to their preferred candidate.

Ukrainians voted to leave the soviet union and become independent and Moscow and Putin in particular have done everything in their power to undermine them ever since.

So when you talk about corruption or democracy I just can't take you seriously given your approval of Putin's actions.
 
Last edited:
antihenry said:
Why Ukraine needs Russia more than ever.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/09/ukraine-needs-russia-nicolai-petro

In January Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, congratulated the country on surviving its first winter without buying Russian gas. It had instead bought European gas which, as Poroshenko pointed out proudly, was 30% more expensive.

This sums up the core problem facing the Ukrainian economy. It is not corruption, a serious issue about which little can be done in the short term, but the ideologically driven choice to sever all ties with Russia, the country that has historically been its major trading partner and chief investor.

In little over a year, living standards in Ukraine have fallen by half, the currency has lost 350% of its value, and inflation has skyrocketed to 43%. Yet, even as the economy has collapsed, the government has insisted on economic policies that can only be termed suicidal.

By tearing up contracts with Russia in 2014, Ukraine’s defence and aviation industries lost 80% of their income. Once the pride of Kiev, airline manufacturerAntonov went bankprupt and rocket engine producer Yuzhmash is now working just one day a week.

By severing banking ties with Moscow, Kiev has denied itself investment and a vital economic lifeline – the remittances sent back home by zarobitchane, Ukraine’s migrant workers. Up to seven million Ukrainians work in Russia, sending back $9bn in 2014 – three times the total foreign direct investment Ukraine got last year.

Reckless government borrowing has exacerbated the problem. The government was able to write off 20% of its Eurobond debt last October, allowing it to negotiate for the next IMF loan tranche which was expected in December but still not been received.

But the draconian terms imposed for this small beer are often overlooked.Ukraine will be repaying this debt until 2041, with future generations giving western creditors as much as half of the country’s GDP growth, should it ever reach 4% a year.

There is a common thread that links the government’s irrational economic behavior – the understandable desire to spite Vladimir Putin. Alas, it is the average Ukrainian citizen who pays the price.

There can also be no doubt that Poroshenko approves of this approach. In his first speech of 2016 he announced new priorities for the Ukrainian economy. The government intends to end subsidies to manufacturing and industry, and instead promote investment in information technologies and agriculture.

It is not at all clear, however, where he will sell this produce, since by signing a free trade agreement with the EU, Ukraine lost its preferential access to its largest market, Russia.

Meanwhile, EU certification allows only 72 Ukrainian companies to export goods to the EU. Of these, 39 licenses are for honey. While that may sound like a lot of honey, Ukraine exported its yearly quota for honey in the first six weeks of 2016.

Nor is it clear how Poroshenko plans to make Ukrainian agriculture globally competitive when, as his own agriculture minister points out, four out of five agricultural companies are bankrupt. It is also unclear who will pay foragricultural machinery, 80% of which is imported.

Such policies have led to a steady erosion of government popularity, with 70% of Ukrainians saying the country is on wrong track and 85% say they do not trust the prime minister. Poroshenko’s popularity is now lower than that of his predecessor, Viktor Yanukovich, on the eve of the Maidan rebellion that ousted him.

But while less than 2% describe the country as “stable,” a new revolt does not seem imminent. So far, the regime has been able to provide explanations that deflect attention away from its own role in Ukraine’s economic demise.

The first is Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the rebellion in the east, which are commonly cited as reasons for the fall in GDP. While it’s true that these caused significant economic damage, it has been exacerbated by the government’s own policies which, despite insisting Russophone eastern regions are part of Ukraine, has cut them off from economic ties and punished the population for siding with Russia.

Another favourite argument of the current government is that Ukraine simply has no choice but to respond to Russian aggression by imposing its own sanctions.The beauty of this argument is that, while it may not make economic sense, it makes a great deal of political sense for those now in power.

The destruction of Ukraine’s industrial base, which is heavily concentrated in the east, shifts the balance of economic and political power to the western regions, permanently marginalising opposing political voices. The advantages are clear. Fostering a sense of perpetual crisis allows the current government to argue that it must remain in power, to see its policies through. The only uncertainty is whether such a strategy can bear fruit before the country’s economy collapses.

This is not a policy that the west can endorse. Regardless of political sympathies, no western government should tolerate the deliberate impoverishment of the population for political gain. The risks of Ukraine becoming a failed state, and adding millions more to Europe’s burgeoning refugee crisis, are simply too high.

The best way to avoid such an outcome is to recognise that Ukraine’s economic survival depends not on western bailouts but on the renewal of Russian investment there. Western policymakers should insist that economic rationality take precedence over economic nationalism, and make that a condition of assistance.

Until that happens, it is hard to imagine anyone investing in Ukraine’s future, including its own people.
Click to expand...


When a country invades and annexes your land it tends to have a negative effect on your willingness to manufacture arms for them. :)
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I'd say it is you who have the selective memory because you know full well that Russia intervened in Ukrainian politics and particularly in the election of their preferred candidate in presidential elections from well before the events you cite and falsely ascribe. Up to and including vote rigging on a massive scale and attempting to murder by poisoning the main rival to their preferred candidate.

Ukrainians voted to leave the soviet union and become independent and Moscow and Putin in particular have done everything in their power to undermine them ever since.

So when you talk about corruption or democracy I just can't take you seriously given your approval of Putin's actions.
Click to expand...

I view the situation in pure mafia terms. A shop in a neighborhood has been for years intimidated by the local organized crime family. One day the shop owner rebels and says he won't take it any more and will seek help from the authorities. At this stage the head of the mafia family begins a campaign of intimidating the shop owner into submission by having his thugs harass, assault, and shake down its employees (Crimea, Donbass, Gas as a weapon), which in turn causes great disruption in the business' ability to function properly, and in the process brings into question the legitimacy of the owner by his employees.
 
Raoul said:
I view the situation in pure mafia terms. A shop in a neighborhood has been for years intimidated by the local organized crime family. One day the shop owner rebels and says he won't take it any more and will seek help from the authorities. At this stage the head of the mafia family begins a campaign of intimidating the shop owner into submission by having his thugs harass, assault, and shake down its employees (Crimea, Donbass, Gas as a weapon), which in turn causes great disruption in the business' ability to function properly, and in the process brings into question the legitimacy of the owner by his employees.
Click to expand...

The problem is that we (Europe/US) have not done much to help this formerly extorted business. We encouraged them to break with the mafia but have not offered much to help them back on their feet.
 
MoskvaRed said:
The problem is that we (Europe/US) have not done much to help this formerly extorted business. We encouraged them to break with the mafia but have not offered much to help them back on their feet.
Click to expand...

Agreed, which is further undermining the survival of the business.
 
JustAFan said:
On the flip side I bet you would not be fine with a US invasion of Mexico. And so what if the US fleet had shown up in Crimea, having been invited by the Ukrainians, are you really saying the very fear of that event happening justifies an invasion of another country? BEcause let's face it you are essentially arguing that point whether you want to be honest with yourself and us or not.

How about something more modern, would the US and South Korea be justified in launching attacks on North Korea given North Korea's constant threats of nuclear war? Or would you justify North Korea re-starting combat with the US and South Korea over these annual military exercises? After all they claim to feel threatened by them and they are happening right over their border.

Bottom line is it really that difficult just to say Putin's invasion is wrong without trying to justify it all the time?
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to justify anything, just trying to explain the reasoning behind Putin's actions. The western mass media are trying to present him as a modern day Hitler bent on world domination, conveniently omitting what doesn't fit that narrative. Putin actually was considering joining both NATO and the EU back in the early 2000s only to be told to feck off. In the meantime, the NATO encroachment towards Russian borders continued. Russia's protests were either ignored or dismissed as paranoia. Here's what former US defense secretary has to say about that.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/09/russian-hostility-to-west-partly-caused-by-west

Here's another fun fact that is appropriate here. When back in 1962 Soviet Union decided to deploy their ballistic missiles in Cuba, Americans were ready to start a nuclear war to stop that from happening. In the end, Russians agreed to dismantle their missiles and remove them from Cuba, while the US did the same in Turkey. The alternative to reaching that compromise was unthinkable but it was quite real and all because the US didn't want Russians in their backyard. So how's that any different than Putin's reaction to what's happening in Ukraine or hypothetical American reaction to the Mexican scenario I wrote about earlier?

When powerful countries feel their interests/security are threatened they wipe their asses with international law, Americans do it all the time. Or perhaps it's more like 'do what I say, don't do what I do' kind of a deal.
 
Raoul said:
I view the situation in pure mafia terms. A shop in a neighborhood has been for years intimidated by the local organized crime family. One day the shop owner rebels and says he won't take it any more and will seek help from the authorities. At this stage the head of the mafia family begins a campaign of intimidating the shop owner into submission by having his thugs harass, assault, and shake down its employees (Crimea, Donbass, Gas as a weapon), which in turn causes great disruption in the business' ability to function properly, and in the process brings into question the legitimacy of the owner by his employees.
Click to expand...

You forgot about the biggest mob boss from across the pond who's been agitating and putting various neighborhood politicians, activists and journalists on his payroll for the last two decades with a view of pulling the neighborhood into his sphere of influence while actively brainwashing the large part of the population into believing that the only obstacle on their way to happiness and success is that terrible local gang and once they get rid of them it'd be a smooth sailing all the way. The problem is, once it happened he left them to fend for themselves. They gave up money and business, destroyed whatever ties they'd had with the "local mafia" because they were positive the wealthy boys from across the pond would come to their aid and would bring the promised prosperity with them. So now, when the harsh reality is staring the neighborhood idiots in the face, they're still living in denial about their own responsibility in what has happened although the resentment towards the "friends" from the western parts of the land is slowly, but surely increasing.
 
Last edited:
Russian judge says evidence supports guilty verdict in trial of Ukrainian pilot

Nadiya Savchenko, accused of directing artillery fire that killed two journalists, motivated by hatred of Russians, says judge

Shaun Walker in Moscow
Monday 21st March 2016

A Russian court has found Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko guilty of murder, according to Russian news agencies, as a controversial trial in the south of the country drew to a close.

One of the panel of three judges began reading the verdict in the case, which has caused an international outcry, on Monday morning. The full reading was expected to take two days, with sentencing likely on Tuesday.

Despite Russian agencies widely reporting that the court had found Savchenko guilty, her lawyers said that during the first part of the verdict the judge was merely summarising the prosecution arguments. Few have any doubt that the actual verdict, when it comes, will be a guilty one, however.

Summing up the prosecution arguments, the judge said Savchenko “committed the premeditated murder as part of a group of people from the motives of hatred and enmity”. She was motivated by hatred of “Russian-speaking people in general”, he added, though it was not immediately clear if this was merely a summing up of the prosecution case or the judge’s own conclusions. However, the judge said the witnesses and evidence in the case supported a guilty verdict, RIA Novosti reported.

Savchenko was a fighter pilot in the Ukrainian army who was fighting with the Aidar volunteer battalion in east Ukraine at the time of her arrest. Prosecutors said she was responsible for directing artillery fire in an attack that killed two Russian television journalists. The court refused to admit evidence of her phone calls that the defence team claimed would show she was not in the area at the time of the attack.

Savchenko said she was detained by pro-Russia rebels in east Ukraine and taken across the border to Russia, whereas the prosecution had claimed she crossed the border of her own accord, pretending to be a refugee.

In Russia, Savchenko has been portrayed as a bloodthirsty killer, while Kiev has lionised her and turned her into a national hero. A delegation of Ukrainian politicians, including a number of MPs and the press secretary of president Petro Poroshenko, travelled to the courthouse in the Russian town of Donetsk, close to the border with Ukraine.

The trial has been running since last September. Savchenko went on an 83-day hunger strike earlier in the trial and was again refusing food in protest at delays in the reading of the verdict. During her final statement to the court, a defiant Savchenko railed against the Russian justice and political system and raised her middle finger at the judge.

Prosecutors asked for a 23-year jail sentence for Savchenko. The team of defence lawyers have said they had little hope for a not-guilty verdict in Russia’s politicised justice system but were hoping that after sentencing Savchenko could be made part of an exchange deal between Russia and Ukraine.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...da-savchenko-guilty-russian-court-journalists
 
But apparently not sufficient evidence to prosecute Russian units for shooting down MH17. :)
 
Interview with the former Minister of Defense of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic who was dismissed after the downing of Mayalsian Airlines flight MH17.

http://uawire.org/news/igor-strelko...s-have-brought-poverty-and-ruin-to-the-donbas

He explained that the pro-Russian separatists have built a copy of the Russian oligarchic system, and consequently there is no power for the people, which is what the masses rallied for in the spring of 2014. According to Strelkov, the war in the Donbas has significantly lowered the living conditions of the local population.

"A tremendous decline of motivation of population is happening there. Those people who a year and a half ago were ready to really fight for Russia and proudly move forward, now consider themselves betrayed. They believe that Russia has betrayed them," the former Defense Minister of the breakaway region stated.
Click to expand...
 
Raoul said:
I view the situation in pure mafia terms. A shop in a neighborhood has been for years intimidated by the local organized crime family. One day the shop owner rebels and says he won't take it any more and will seek help from the authorities. At this stage the head of the mafia family begins a campaign of intimidating the shop owner into submission by having his thugs harass, assault, and shake down its employees (Crimea, Donbass, Gas as a weapon), which in turn causes great disruption in the business' ability to function properly, and in the process brings into question the legitimacy of the owner by his employees.
Click to expand...
You really need to stop continuously watching the Sopranos box sets.
 
PedroMendez said:
It is unbelievable, that this Breedlove character has still a job.
Click to expand...

He doesn't as he's retired. I saw a few of the correspondences that were published and it seemed he was frustrated there wasn't a more robust action against Russia at the time, which is a pretty normal frustration various generals have in different parts of the world when conflicts within their area arise and they feel it is not getting enough attention. Obama clearly had not intention of ramping up militarily against Russian aggression and instead went the economic sanctions route.
 
Raoul said:
He doesn't as he's retired. I saw a few of the correspondences that were published and it seemed he was frustrated there wasn't a more robust action against Russia at the time, which is a pretty normal frustration various generals have in different parts of the world when conflicts within their area arise and they feel it is not getting enough attention. Obama clearly had not intention of ramping up militarily against Russian aggression and instead went the economic sanctions route.
Click to expand...

I wonder if this will change if Hilary becomes president?
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I wonder if this will change if Hilary becomes president?
Click to expand...

It would change in terms of more sanctions and economic pressure, and possibly more advise and assist trainers in Lviv. The US government's strategy under Obama has been to "smoke Putin out", by allowing him to cave into the economic pressures associated with the drop in oil price, inflation, and corruption, as opposed to actually engage him militarily which is obviously an non-starter. Putin's Russia will eventually collapse much as the Soviet Union did, under economic pressure.
 
Russia has in the last weeks moved a lot of troops and military hardware to the Ukrainian border in northern Crimea


And today they are accusing Ukraine of an armed Crimea incursion.


And then there is the fact that Russia launched it's attack on Georgia during the Beijing Olympics when all the world was watching the other way.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days.
 
the hea said:
Russia has in the last weeks moved a lot of troops and military hardware to the Ukrainian border in northern Crimea


And today they are accusing Ukraine of an armed Crimea incursion.


And then there is the fact that Russia launched it's attack on Georgia during the Beijing Olympics when all the world was watching the other way.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days.
Click to expand...


Sounds like another conflict is on the horizon. This might be Putin's excuse of finally setting up a land bridge into Crimea by way of helping himself to a bit more Ukrainian land.
 
the hea said:
Russia has in the last weeks moved a lot of troops and military hardware to the Ukrainian border in northern Crimea


And today they are accusing Ukraine of an armed Crimea incursion.


And then there is the fact that Russia launched it's attack on Georgia during the Beijing Olympics when all the world was watching the other way.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days.
Click to expand...


Oh he is sending in the troops, opening a new front. Again with some made up line about Ukrainian incursions, remember when he entered the Crimea it was all about protecting the citizens from some threat that did not exist.
 
Frosty said:
So when Trump said that Putin wouldn't invade Crimea....?
Click to expand...

It was not an invasion remember. It was the Russians exercise their rights according to treaty to protect their Black Sea fleet from some threat or the other. Or the other explanation that ethnic Russians in the area were about to be slaughtered by Ukrainian Facists in Crimea (never mind there was no actual threat).
 
JustAFan said:
It was not an invasion remember. It was the Russians exercise their rights according to treaty to protect their Black Sea fleet from some threat or the other. Or the other explanation that ethnic Russians in the area were about to be slaughtered by Ukrainian Facists in Crimea (never mind there was no actual threat).
Click to expand...

I hate to break Godwin's law but Crimea is basically the Sudetenland at this stage.
 
the hea said:
Click to expand...


The historic double standards regarding the placing of these systems is amazing. The Cuban missile crisis happened while the US was placing missiles able to hit Moscow in Turkey, near the USSR border. Not to mention US bases in Japan, also in range for an attack on Russia. Air bases in Iran, used for spy missions, again, right on the Soviet border. I'm sure I'm forgetting a few more.

This move is the geographical equivalent of the US putting air defence missiles on the Canadian border.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.