They routinely look to manipulate situations as excuses to do things. They’ve literally attacked their own people for it in the past. I’m not saying it definitely is this, but they’ve done it many times. If it were as you say, they wouldn’t have bothered doing the examples below, on the US embassy website. They’d just do what they want to do regardless.They don't need any excuses. Russia is not comparable to a working democracy or any western society and people need to stop comparing it to one. Russian leaders doesn't need any excuses for anything they do, as long as the people see them as the strong leaders that can protect the people from outside aggression they can do what ever they want and they can say what ever they want. The one big threat to Putin is if the people start seeing him as weak and not able to protect them, then they will turn on him.
https://uk.usembassy.gov/how-russia-conducts-false-flag-operations/