A people's Revolution

maldini said:
I think people are asking all the wrong questions. Let's put aside the Muslim Brotherhood boogey man theory and consider the aftermath of this riot. Who is capable of governance in a country where authority stemmed from an authoritarian source? What could the post-Mubarak gov't possibly do to curb the rising unemployment and heal the battered economy?

I feel expectations will be unrealistically high for any incoming administration and may create further resentment rather than void it.
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The Muslim Brotherhood can't really just been thrown off as a "boogey man" since they're the most organized opposition in Egypt. So far, the protests have had no leaders and have just been a popular protest. There's no means of organizing them into any form of political party or government without someone able of drawing support internally and, to some extent, internationally. A power vacuum would be just what the MB wants since it would give them the best chance of establishing themselves in power.

The same goes for Tunisia. Without any popular agreement or organization, they are dependent on existing political parties who have organization and resources on their side.

It'll take time for other groups to really establish themselves to challenge parties already in existence.
 
holyland red said:
Typical Yank- you wouldn't know where to place those countries on a map, would you? Unrest in Tunisia and Yemen really shifts the balance of power in the ME, doesn't it? The Sanaa stealth carpet squadron will take the Dimona nuclear reactor in no time.

As for the rest, the last time Egypt and Jordan joined ranks to attack Israel we liberated Jerusalem and the previous time they created the Palestinian issue. Both events were carried out without the involvement of US aid. You don't wish any harm on the Israeli people but you storm in with a countdown of Israel's days in a thread about events in Egypt. Israel will spend a lot of money and human lives taking back Sinai if the peace agrteement with Egypt isn't fullfilled. I'm sure that as a true proponent of world peace you wouldn't want that to happen. Nor the resultant Israeli reluctance to hand territories to any Arab in return to peace deals, no matter how appealing they might look or how strongly an American president claps in the background.

Jordan is interesting though. They are a couple of demonstrations away from becoming the Palestinian state that we all crave. Yanks, Israelis and their Arab brothers who care for them so much.
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Awe come'on HLR,

You should know better than that... I know way more about the ME than most Americans.

My describing that the surrounding countries experiencing unrest wasn't descriptive enough to let you know that I know full well there is trouble of varied degrees from the north, east, and south of Israel?



Hey, if you're all cool with what's going on... may the expansion of the Jewish settlements carry-on!!!!
 
ooeat0meoo said:
Awe come'on HLR,

You should know better than that... I know way more about the ME than most Americans.

My describing that the surrounding countries experiencing unrest wasn't descriptive enough to let you know that I know full well there is trouble of varied degrees from the north, east, and south of Israel?



Hey, if you're all cool with what's going on... may the expansion of the Jewish settlements carry-on!!!!
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Yank, exapnsion...hehe...that San Diego offer of yours is not on, Bob. We don't do occupied territories.
 
We wouldn't let you have San Diego. You can have Florida though. Between Haitians, Cubans, and Jewish people, you basically run South Florida already. :D
 
Sir Matt said:
We wouldn't let you have San Diego. You can have Florida though. Between Haitians, Cubans, and Jewish people, you basically run South Florida already. :D
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If you're offering him the Florida Keys ~ don't do it HLR ~ the Keys will be under water within the next ten years. :p


See, I'm all about the open arms of peace and love.. and fairness. :D
 
holyland red said:
Typical Yank- you wouldn't know where to place those countries on a map, would you? Unrest in Tunisia and Yemen really shifts the balance of power in the ME, doesn't it? The Sanaa stealth carpet squadron will take the Dimona nuclear reactor in no time.

As for the rest, the last time Egypt and Jordan joined ranks to attack Israel we liberated Jerusalem and the previous time they created the Palestinian issue. Both events were carried out without the involvement of US aid. You don't wish any harm on the Israeli people but you storm in with a countdown of Israel's days in a thread about events in Egypt. Israel will spend a lot of money and human lives taking back Sinai if the peace agrteement with Egypt isn't fullfilled. I'm sure that as a true proponent of world peace you wouldn't want that to happen. Nor the resultant Isrhttps://www.redcafe.net/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=9232230aeli reluctance to hand territories to any Arab in return to peace deals, no matter how appealing they might look or how strongly an American president claps in the background.

Jordan is interesting though. They are a couple of demonstrations away from becoming the Palestinian state that we all crave. Yanks, Israelis and their Arab brothers who care for them so much.
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You can think of Jordan as a mirror into the future.
Netanyahu: Israel's Arabs are the real demographic threat - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
 
ooeat0meoo said:
Awe come'on HLR,

You should know better than that... I know way more about the ME than most Americans.

My describing that the surrounding countries experiencing unrest wasn't descriptive enough to let you know that I know full well there is trouble of varied degrees from the north, east, and south of Israel?
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foxnews.jpg


:angel:
 
:lol: typical fox news.

was watching it for a few minutes last night, wanted to see what they thought of the Egyptian events - nothing. they were talking to republican pols about big govmnt.
 
Ruud_boy_10 said:
You can think of Jordan as a mirror into the future.
Netanyahu: Israel's Arabs are the real demographic threat - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News
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The actual threat to Jewish majority posed by demographics is very contentious, and often overhyped for political reasons. Recent reports indicate that Jews would still constitute 72-73% of the population in Israel in 2030, compared with current figures of ~75%.

A nuclear war will change the demographics here long before natural birth and death rates take a toll.

;)
 
holyland red said:
The actual threat to Jewish majority posed by demographics is very contentious, and often overhyped for political reasons. Recent reports indicate that Jews would still constitute 72-73% of the population in Israel in 2030, compared with current figures of ~75%.

A nuclear war will change the demographics here long before natural birth and death rates take a toll.

;)
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I think its widely accepted that they are out shagging your lot. Maybe you should introduce them to the wonders of the internet. ;)
 
Ruud_boy_10 said:
I think its widely accepted that they are out shagging your lot. Maybe you should introduce them to the wonders of the internet. ;)
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It is not well known that Israeli Arabs have modernized (excluding most Bedounis in the South), and birth rates have dropped as a result. That, together with increasing birth rates among Jews (increasing proportions of Haredi Jews) see that gap in birth rates shrink with time.

Mind you, Israel's major problem is that neither population is highly productive or serves in the army which means that a decreasing proportion of the population takes the burden of contributing to the security and the economy.
 
Commadus said:
Which guys are these - Red Kaos / Avatar?
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I don't believe in the Jewish world order, it's nonsensical garbage that only diverts energy away from the real issues. US policy dictates Israeli stance, not vice versa.
















One can't help but notice though that no Jews died on 9/11 :nervous:
 
Sir Matt said:
The Muslim Brotherhood can't really just been thrown off as a "boogey man" since they're the most organized opposition in Egypt. So far, the protests have had no leaders and have just been a popular protest. There's no means of organizing them into any form of political party or government without someone able of drawing support internally and, to some extent, internationally. A power vacuum would be just what the MB wants since it would give them the best chance of establishing themselves in power.

The same goes for Tunisia. Without any popular agreement or organization, they are dependent on existing political parties who have organization and resources on their side.

It'll take time for other groups to really establish themselves to challenge parties already in existence.
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They are a boogey man because analysts are equating them with al-Qaeda, and to a lesser extent, Hamas. They have few similarities to either group; in fact, al-Qaeda have committed takfir on them and declared them to be apostates.

This idea that they are at the forefront, an organized political force (white lie) and they will establish a Khalifate is the conspiracies of conservative Republicans and AIPAC.
 
maldini said:
They are a boogey man because analysts are equating them with al-Qaeda, and to a lesser extent, Hamas. They have few similarities to either group; in fact, al-Qaeda have committed takfir on them and declared them to be apostates.

This idea that they are at the forefront, an organized political force (white lie) and they will establish a Khalifate is the conspiracies of conservative Republicans and AIPAC.
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What people don't realise is that Egypt is largely a secular society - more or less all the young abide by secular values whereas the older generation are remnants of the secular Nasserian era. There's also the fact that Egypt has a very sizeable Coptic minority, and I don't see them voting for The Muslim brotherhood either somehow. There's close to zero chance of The Brotherhood gaining a democratic majority.

Though of course hawks in Washington already know this, the real cause of worry for them is not an Islamic party inheriting government, but rather that they're losing a key puppet regime which will deal a severe blow to their dominance and hegemony in the region, it's a disastrous shift of power away from them.

If an Islamic government was the real fear, then why is Saudi Arabia the US's biggest ally after Israel in the region? Heck the Saudi Royal family have vehemently defended the secular Mubarak. Food for thought.
 
I'm not so sure, the next guy whoever that is, could be bought off too.
the almighty dollar wields a lot of power, more than tanks and guns.
 
RedKaos said:
What people don't realise is that Egypt is largely a secular society - more or less all the young abide by secular values whereas the older generation are remnants of the secular Nasserian era. There's also the fact that Egypt has a very sizeable Coptic minority, and I don't see them voting for The Muslim brotherhood either somehow. There's close to zero chance of The Brotherhood gaining a democratic majority.

Though of course hawks in Washington already know this, the real cause of worry for them is not an Islamic party inheriting government, but rather that they're losing a key puppet regime which will deal a severe blow to their dominance and hegemony in the region, it's a disastrous shift of power away from them.
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Let's go along with the theory, this is successful and the Army don't actually take power, and put a different puppet in power.

What will change in reality?

The rhetoric will be different, but will the reality on the ground be any different? The Suez Canal will be left alone, the Peace Treaty will stay the same, even if the Islamists :rolleyes: - fecking media and their monikers, spit the dummy and say they will no longer respect the treaty, it's not like, they're going to wage war on Israel.
 
BTV_is_neutral said:
Let's go along with the theory, this is successful and the Army don't actually take power, and put a different puppet in power.

What will change in reality?

The rhetoric will be different, but will the reality on the ground be any different? The Suez Canal will be left alone, the Peace Treaty will stay the same, even if the Islamists :rolleyes: - fecking media and their monikers, spit the dummy and say they will no longer respect the treaty, it's not like, they're going to wage war on Israel.
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It's all subjective, if we follow Washington's guidelines of 'transition' (i.e. give us a time while we implement a Mubarak MK II), I don't think it'll last, or at best it'll be a more subtle autocracy based on the Iraq model of 'free and fair elections'.

However if everything goes to plan, Mubarak is deposed and Egypt begins its infancy as a democratic nation....well then it'll be difficult to analyse the future. My gut feeling is that the peace treaty will be upheld seeing as I wouldn't imagine the new Egypt diving head first into a war immediately after their struggle. But its all speculation at this point seeing as we haven't the slightest clue what the future government would look like, but it'll no doubt be different providing the remnants of the Mubarak-era are entirely cleansed.
 
Actually I knew all along, I just wanted to hear your aeroplane impression.

More protests about to start meanwhile. Apparently there were a million people in Tahrir Square...
 
Surely Saudi Arabia should be shitting bricks?
 
Al-Jazeera pushing this HARD. No wonder they got banned, they are almost openly cheerleading(so am I to be fair). Every other international broadcaster has the crowds at hundreds of thousands, Al-Jazeera and their correspondent, Ayman Moeneddin, 2 MILLION.

So, I'm going to go somewhere along the middle and say, 1mil, pretty impressive though, for a people who until 8-9 days ago were afraid to show dissent in private let alone in public.

Also the 'rent a crowd' supporting Mubarak :lol: :lol:
 
BTV_is_neutral said:
Al-Jazeera pushing this HARD. No wonder they got banned, they are almost openly cheerleading(so am I to be fair). Every other international broadcaster has the crowds at hundreds of thousands, Al-Jazeera and their correspondent, Ayman Moeneddin, 2 MILLION.

So, I'm going to go somewhere along the middle and say, 1mil, pretty impressive though, for a people who until 8-9 days ago were afraid to show dissent in private let alone in public.

Also the 'rent a crowd' supporting Mubarak :lol: :lol:
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If you think thats bad, PressTV has it as over 4 million!

dr-evil.jpg
 
One thing I've been pleasantly surprised by is how people keep saying, "Whether Muslim, Christian or atheist". I had no idea non-believers were so accepted in the public discourse of any Arab state.
 
Plechazunga said:
:lol:



Saudi's done have a vast hungry frustrated population though. They have some restive Shi'ites and some hungry frustrated guest workers but that's about it.
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Yes, but Saudi Arabia's home to Wahabism/Salafism...they've gathered huge support throughout the world, I don't see why Saudi Arabia'd be any different.... by Wahabism I mean the radical Islamic movement that basically wants to shoot anyone who's not a mentalist Salafi...I would've thought the North African revolution would've given them and their supporters enough impetus to force a revolution. I can't think of a more cnutish regime in the Middle East....how can people be happy living in those conditions. Then again, I suppose it's okay if you've got enough money...and enough camels to start your own camel racing grand prix.
 
Plechazunga said:
One thing I've been pleasantly surprised by is how people keep saying, "Whether Muslim, Christian or atheist". I had no idea non-believers were so accepted in the public discourse of any Arab state.
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They'll be put in a sandpit and stoned once the cameras go away.

I think a lot of this is, them trying to convey to the world, please don't help Mubarak put this down, don't deny us freedom, and for that goal, yes we are all UNITED, regardless of who we pray to or not as may be the case.
 
Al Arabiya are reporting that Mubarak will announce later on this evening that he will not seek re-election in September, but intends to stay in power until then.
 
Spoony Youngblood said:
Then again, I suppose it's okay if you've got enough money...and enough camels to start your own camel racing grand prix.
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Answered your own question there. Saudis are one of the most politically apathetic people you can meet, even the ones working/studying abroad are unlikely to be motivated for any sort of dissent on a large enough scale. But again in what other country are you afforded to live an overwhelmingly ridiculous, sexist and excessive lifestyle than in Saudi Arabia? It's why it's essentially been the biggest US airbase in the region after Israel - its stability and loyalty is guaranteed with the excessive luxuries thrown at it.
 
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