North Korea

Hoof The Ball said:
Amazing. A lot have been very reticent to give Trump his due, but, fair play to all involved.
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His due to...what?


I am amazed that people get actually enthusiasitic about this. It's the decade old game of escalation and reassurance. For something to actually change, Kim would need to step down. He won't. He just got his nuclear program as far as he wanted, but isn't sure about his retaliation capabilities yet so needs to gain a bit of time. In a few month, he will walk away again and test a working intercontinental rocket, while everyone looks just as stupid as usual when it comes to NK.
 
fcbforever said:
His due to...what?


I am amazed that people get actually enthusiasitic about this. It's the decade old game of escalation and reassurance. For something to actually change, Kim would need to step down. He won't. He just got his nuclear program as far as he wanted, but isn't sure about his retaliation capabilities yet so needs to gain a bit of time. In a few month, he will walk away again and test a working intercontinental rocket, while everyone looks just as stupid as usual when it comes to NK.
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There are a few positive signs this time - namely the fact that China and the US seem to be getting through to the North Korean leadership, as well as the fact that there are now four somewhat amenable personalities involved who can actually do business with one another. The prospect of sanctions relief and international acceptance is going to be powerful driver for Kim to make progress.
 
Raoul said:
There are a few positive signs this time - namely the fact that China and the US seem to be getting through to the North Korean leadership, as well as the fact that there are now four somewhat amenable personalities involved who can actually do business with one another. The prospect of sanctions relief and international acceptance is going to be powerful driver for Kim to make progress.
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We've been there, under Clinton, under Bush, to some extent under Obama. It doesn't matter. International acceptance doesn't matter to them. Sanctions relief might just weaken their regime. They want their regime to stay and that'S the only aspect you ever need to watch out for.
 
Sassy Colin said:
Nothing annoys me more than idiot journalists inserting what someone meant to say/write in square brackets.

His message was:



That's it Anna, pure and simple, you stupid fecking cow.

It's the quote that will go in the history books, not your made up crap :mad:
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I'd agree with you for literal quotes in the same language but it's kind of a moot point arguing against their use after a quote has been translated isn't it?

I mean that's a literal translation rather than a literal quote so I don't see any harm in using a [sic] if it's possible that the semantics might be lost.
 
Pexbo said:
I'd agree with you for literal quotes in the same language but it's kind of a moot point arguing against their use after a quote has been translated isn't it?

I mean that's a literal translation rather than a literal quote so I don't see any harm in using a [sic] if it's possible that the semantics might be lost.
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That's may or not be the case, my Korean is a bit rusty these days, but they do it incessantly, all the time and it pisses me off.
 
Looks promising, no need to go further than that for the moment. But feck knows the world could do with some positivity right now.
 
Sassy Colin said:
That's may or not be the case, my Korean is a bit rusty these days, but they do it incessantly, all the time and it pisses me off.
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I don't mind it, it often makes perfect sense to do it when a couple of sentences from a speech have been quoted and the only context provided is the words of the author anyway.
 
fcbforever said:
We've been there, under Clinton, under Bush, to some extent under Obama. It doesn't matter. International acceptance doesn't matter to them. Sanctions relief might just weaken their regime. They want their regime to stay and that'S the only aspect you ever need to watch out for.
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Yeah but not under the personalities who are involved this time. There's an out of the box mentality with Trump, Kim, Xi, and Moon that is allowing this sort of thing to happen. If the personalities were more traditional and "diplomatic" then something like yesterday would've never happened. The real rubber will hit the road when Kim and Trump meet, which imo could yield significant progress for North Korea.
 
Some people need to stop being so damned pessimistic. The first North Korean leader to step foot inside South Korea in 65 years is a major deal. Signing peace agreements, talking about denuclearizing and officially ending the Korean war are about as big a gestures either leader can make.

It is a very historic day. Lets hope things continue in the same vain.
 
Traub said:
fecking hell, as much as Trump is completely incompetent, he’s already done something Obama didn’t get close to imo.
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Obama did stop Iran getting nuclear weapons. But yeah credit can be given to Trump for some of this North Korea development.
 
Once again, I want to point out that the difference from last year - when both Kim and Trump were similarly belligerent - was the change in South Korean leadership. After the fall of the previous government this one was elected on the explicit platform of peace with NK - he opposed further installation of US missile defences, for example.

He deserves first credit on this, followed by Kim, and then Trump and China (if they agree to this, since they are signatories to the original ceasefire).
 
While some credit can go to Trump for his aggressive rhetoric and unpredictability, I think this outcome was essentially an inevitable crescendo.

North Korea have been developing Nuclear weapons for a long time now and they made significant advances in the last couple of years and they haven't been afraid of showcasing them on Trump's watch despite apparently being scared enough of him to "submit" to this deal.

What Kim Jong Un has now got in this deal is what he always wanted. Respect as an equal on the international stage and the terms that respect allowed him to negotiate.

In short, I don't think it matters who is President of China/USA/Russia/South Korea, North Korea earned their reputation as a nuclear nation and got to negotiate their terms sitting at the big table as a big boy.
 
Dan said:
Was about to post that. :lol:
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Someone's response on Reddit was that this is their training..

5BcHzzE.gif

NccMFdj.gif


:lol:
 
fcbforever said:
His due to...what?


I am amazed that people get actually enthusiasitic about this. It's the decade old game of escalation and reassurance. For something to actually change, Kim would need to step down. He won't. He just got his nuclear program as far as he wanted, but isn't sure about his retaliation capabilities yet so needs to gain a bit of time. In a few month, he will walk away again and test a working intercontinental rocket, while everyone looks just as stupid as usual when it comes to NK.
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I’m sceptical too. That this coincides with the collapse of his nuclear test facilities is a bit of a non coincidence. Let’s see.
 
If all it takes is childish tweets to bring people to negotiating table then we may have saved many lives in the past.
 
Watching some of the footage from today it feels like South Korea are laying it on to N Korea by replaying all the moments of the day to Kim with the music playing. It felt like they're playing it up to make him feel important, make him at ease with the situation and to portray the importance of it. Clever to pander to his ego into wanting peace.
 
Balljy said:
Watching some of the footage from today it feels like South Korea are laying it on to N Korea by replaying all the moments of the day to Kim with the music playing. It felt like they're playing it up to make him feel important, make him at ease with the situation and to portray the importance of it. Clever to pander to his ego into wanting peace.
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Each side will view this as advancing their own interests, which is imo a good thing for the process. The real evidence that this is happening will be if Kim actually closes his test site, meets with Trump, and signs a deal.
 
Raoul said:
Each side will view this as advancing their own interests, which is imo a good thing for the process. The real evidence that this is happening will be if Kim actually closes his test site, meets with Trump, and signs a deal.
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My concern is that they are closing a test site that was unusable anyway due to the collapse a while back. This could just be a waiting game until they prepare another although if they are really going to let experts view it when it is closed we may find out what state it is in soon.
 
Raoul said:
Each side will view this as advancing their own interests, which is imo a good thing for the process. The real evidence that this is happening will be if Kim actually closes his test site, meets with Trump, and signs a deal.
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In which case Kim will have won, having retained his nuclear technology, and proved significant missile capability and invulnerability to Trump's childish military threats. Because the goalposts have moved now haven't they? all he has to do is close a test site he likely doesn't need anyway.

The only question is how Trump will present this as a victory, but I'm sure he and his supporters will give it a good try.
 
712 said:
In which case Kim will have won, having retained his nuclear technology, and proved significant missile capability and invulnerability to Trump's childish military threats. Because the goalposts have moved now haven't they? all he has to do is close a test site he likely doesn't need anyway.

The only question is how Trump will present this as a victory, but I'm sure he and his supporters will give it a good try.
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I'm pretty sure any deal will involve complete denuclearization and peace treaty with the South in exchange for a complete removal of economic sanctions. Otherwise it wouldn't make any sense for the other parties.
 
Raoul said:
I'm pretty sure any deal will involve complete denuclearization and peace treaty with the South in exchange for a complete removal of economic sanctions. Otherwise it wouldn't make any sense for the other parties.
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What do you think personally Raoul, do you really thing Kim is going to give up his nuclear status? Not a list of reasons why he might, do you think he will?
 
712 said:
What do you think personally Raoul, do you really thing Kim is going to give up his nuclear status? Not a list of why he might, do you think he will?
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I think there's a good chance he ultimately will. He has already warmed to relations with the South and the US and knows that the current path he is on - with sanctions and ongoing threats of military conflict - is unsustainable to him and North Korea. Ultimately, he can do much more to advance his cause by liberalizing a bit, allowing economic aid to relieve the domestic pressure he is under, and either gradually drift to a more Chinese model of authoritarianism where market forces are slowly introduced over time.
 
Raoul said:
I think there's a good chance he ultimately will. He has already warmed to relations with the South and the US and knows that the current path he is on - with sanctions and ongoing threats of military conflict - is unsustainable to him and North Korea. Ultimately, he can do much more to advance his cause by liberalizing a bit, allowing economic aid to relieve the domestic pressure he is under, and either gradually drift to a more Chinese model of authoritarianism where market forces are slowly introduced over time.
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Thanks. The bit I don't get is this 'ongoing threats of military conflict'. What's the actual chance of the US (there is no one else) launching a military attack against a nuclear power? Zero I would say.
 
712 said:
Thanks. The bit I don't get is this 'ongoing threats of military conflict'. What's the actual chance of the US (there is no one else) launching a military attack against a nuclear power? Zero I would say.
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Military power is just one of several tools the US has at its disposal. It could also strangle the North Korean system from within via increasingly asphyxiating sanctions, as well as cyber attacks etc. If however, the North attacked the South or the US, then that would be a military confrontation that would've resulted in the end of Kim and the North Korean regime.
 
Raoul said:
Military power is just one of several tools the US has at its disposal. It could also strangle the North Korean system from within via increasingly asphyxiating sanctions, as well as cyber attacks etc. If however, the North attacked the South or the US, then that would be a military confrontation that would've resulted in the end of Kim and the North Korean regime.
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Yeah I get the sanctions and the ifs, but again, 'ongoing threats of military conflict' I don't. Just empty threats, if anything they probably strengthen his position with his population.
 
712 said:
Yeah I get the sanctions and the ifs, but again, 'ongoing threats of military conflict' I don't. Just empty threats, if anything they probably strengthen his position with his population.
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Unfortunately, the sanctions have been choking him for years. He badly needs to get money and resources to relieve some of the domestic pressure. That - along with Moon's flexibility, Xi's cooperation, and Trump's chest pounding - is what is allowing this to happen.
 
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